Transcript changing the global state-of-disaster resilience during the 21st century

CHANGING THE GLOBAL
STATE-OF-DISASTER
RESILIENCE DURING THE
21ST CENTURY
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
ELEMENTS OF A
FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL
DIALOGUE AND ACTION
BACKGROUND
INFORMATION
SOIRCE: ISDR, 2012
BETWEEN 2002 AND 2011 (Source:
ISDR, 2012)
• 4130 disasters reported
• 1,117,527 dead
• At least $US 1,95 billion in
direct economic losses
DURING 2011 (Source: ISDR,
2012)
•
•
•
•
302 disasters reported
29,782 dead
206 million people affected
At least $US 306 billion in
direct economic losses
TOWARDS 21ST CENTURY
GLOBAL DISASTER
RESILIENCE
1. SCOPE
FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS
TO
A DISASTER IN YOUR COMMUNITY
TO
DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF
“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
A DISASTER is ----- the set of failures that occur when
the continuums of: 1) people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habitats,
livelihoods, and social constructs),
and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods,
earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in
space and time, when and where the
people and community are not ready.
THE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
• PEOPLE ( 7 Billion and
counting)
• COMMUNITIES
• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA Natural Hazards), which are
proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
INTERSECTION OF THESE
CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL
CAUSE A DISASTER,
AND SOME WON’T
EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE
READY FOR THE INEVITABLE
INTERSECTION THAT WILL
CHALLENGE ITS STATE OF
READINESS
A DISASTER
FAILURES IN POLICIES
•FLOODS
•SEVERE WIND
STORMS
•EARTHQUAKES
…ETC
CAUSES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
YOUR
COMMUNITY
COUNTER MEASURES
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
DISASTER RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
• BEST
POLICIES
•BEST PRACTICES
PEOPLE = DIVERSITY
CARIBBEAN
BASIN
NORTH
AMERICA
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA
EUROPE
200 NATIONS AND 7+
MEDITERRANEAN
BILLION PEOPLE
SOUTH
AMERICA
ISLAND
NATIONS
ASIA
LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM
NEVER ENDS
LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM
HAS WEAK LINKS
FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
• IGNORANCE
• APATHY
• DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES
• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM
• 7 + BILLION
(DISTRIBUTED
THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD)
THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM:
(SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
•
•
•
•
GOVERNMENT
DWELLINGS
SCHOOLS
HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES
• BUSINESSES
• INFRASTRUCTURE
• ETC
THE RECURRING - EVENTS
CONTINUUM
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.
EXAMPLE OF A DISASTER
RECURRING FLOODING
Interactions of
Planet Earth’s sun,
atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and
biosphere cause:
Floods.
INTERACTIONS OF EARTH’S
CORE, MANTLE,
ASTHENOSPHERE, AND
LITHOSPHERE, CAUSE
RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
HAITI EARTHQUAKE
JANUARY 12, 2010
INTERACTIONS OF THE
CONTINENTAL
LITHOSPHERE WITH THE
OCEANIC LITHOSPHERE
AND THE HYDROSPHERE
CAUSE RECURRING
TSUNAMIS
TSUNAMI: JAPAN
MARCH 12, 2011
TSUNAMI: OFFSHORE INDONESIA
DEC. 26, 2004
RECURRING SEVERE
WINDSTORMS:
HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, CYCLONES
INTERACTIONS OF THE SUN,
ATMOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE,
TROPOSPHERE, AND
LITHOSPHERE
ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL
STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010
•
•
•
•
Alex (H) June 21
Bonnie July 27
Colin Aug 3
Danielle (H)
Aug 21
• Earl (H) Aug.29
• Fiona Aug 30
RECURRING VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS:
INTERACTIONS OF THE
CORE, MANTLE,
LITHOSPHERE, AND
ATMOSPHERE
VOLCANIC ERUPTION: ICELAND
APRIL 14, 2010
RECURRING DROUGHT
EPISODES
Planet Earth’s
atmosphericoceaniclithospheric
interactions
cause:
Droughts
WHEN AN INTERSECTION OCCURS,
WILL A DISASTER OCCUR?
THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IS “YES” IF THE PEOPLE
AND THE COMMUNITY
ARE NOT READY
COMMUNITY
PEOPLE
CP
EVENTS
S
O
P
T
LIVING WITH DISASTER RISK
DECREASED
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
INCREASED
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
LIVING WITH DISASTER
RESILIENCE
NO DISASTER THIS TIME
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
TURNING POINTS FOR DISASTER
RESILIENCE
EDUCATION:
PENETRATE SOCIETY
IGNORANCE TO
ENLIGHTENMENT
BUILDING EQUITY
AND
PENETRATING
SOCIETY
APATHY TO
EMPOWERMENT
BOUNDARIES TO
NETWORKS
ENABLEMENT OF
POLITICAL WILL
1. DISASTER RESILIENCE
POLICIES -----ARE LIKE THE
SYSTEM - ANALYSIS
PROCEDURES THAT
FOUR BLIND
PEOPLE WOULD
USE TO DESCRIBE
AN ELEPHANT
2. DISASTER RESILIENCE
POLICIES
MUST CLOSE PRIOR KNOWLEDGE
DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND
IDENTIFY WEAK LINKS IN THE
PEOPLE/COMMUNITY
CONTINUUMS
CURRENT KNOWLEDGE
IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL,
EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,
STATISTICAL, FUZZY,
PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND
THEORETICAL MODELS
HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND
UNCERTAINTIES
KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES
DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time
of the available knowledge
BETWEEN organizations, disciplines,
and people will always create
uncertainties in choices and
differences in capability to achieve
disaster resilience.
KNOWLEDGE GAPS
DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time
WITHIN organizations, disciplines, or
individuals that create uncertainties
and slow progress towards disaster
resilience.
STRENGTHENING WEAK LINKS
BENEFITS EVERYONE
IMPROVES
PREPAREDNESS
DISASTER
IMPROVES PROTECTION
RESILIENCE
IMPROVES EM
RESPONSEE
IMPROVES RECOVERY
3. FROM A DISASTER TO
DISASTER RESILIENCE
A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF PAST
DISASTERS LEADS TO “COUNTER
MEASURES” THAT PREVENT
RECURRENCES
DISASTER RESILIENCE
POLICIES
Design and Implementation of
policies and practices:
a) to INCREASE CAPACITY of the
PEOPLE, and
b) to ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES in
the COMMUNITY.
STOP INCREASING COMMUNITY
VULNERABILITY
WHEN THE DIALOGUE IS ON
THE CONTINUUMS WE CARE
ABOUT, WE ALMOST NEVER
LEAVE AYTHING TO
CHANCE
“BEST POLICIES AND
PRACTICES”
• PROTECTION
(BUILD TO
WITHSTAND)
• PREPAREDNESS
(BE READY FOR
ALL POSSIBILITIES)
“BEST POLICIES AND
PRACTICES”
• EMERGENCY
RESPONSE
• (ACTIONS TO
[PROTECT PEOPLE
AND PROPERTY)
• DISASTER RECOVERY
(RESTORING
COMMUNITY SYSTEMS
TO NORMAL AS
QUICKLY AS
POSSIBLE)
NO
DISASTERS
FUNCTIONAL
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
ORGANIZATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
“BEST POLICIES
AND PRACTICES
READINESS FOR A
POSSIBLE DISASTER
COMMUNITY
INFORMATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
STAKEHOLDERS
ACADEMIA
Stratec Consulting