Transcript 42261

A FRAMEWORK FOR A
COMPREHENSIVE, INTERDISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE
ON WHAT WE CALL
“A DISASTER”
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
1. SCOPE
FROM 3 CONTINUUMS TO A DISASTER
TO
STUDIES AFTER A DISASTER
TO
PREVENTION OF A FUTURE DISASTER
THROUGH
“BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES”
A DISASTER is ----- the set of failures that occur when
three continuums: 1) people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habitats,
livelihoods, and social constructs),
and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods,
earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in
space and time, when and where the
people and community are not ready.
THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF
EVERY DISASTER
• PEOPLE
• COMMUNITY
• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA Natural Hazards, which are
proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
EACH CONTINUUM IS LIKE AN INFINITE
SERIES: IT NEVER ENDS
TWO CONTINUUMS ARE LIKE A
CHAIN: THEY HAVE WEAK LINKS
FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
CAUSE DISASTERS
• IGNORANCE
• APATHY
• DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES
• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
CONTINUUM 1: PEOPLE
• 6 + BILLION
(DISTRIBUTED
THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD)
PEOPLE = DIVERSITY
CARIBBEAN
BASIN
NORTH
AMERICA
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA
EUROPE
200 NATIONS AND 6+
MEDITERRANEAN
BILLION PEOPLE
SOUTH
AMERICA
ISLAND
NATIONS
ASIA
CONTINUUM 2 : THE COMMUNITY
(SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
•
•
•
•
GOVERNMENT
DWELLINGS
SCHOOLS
HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES
• BUSINESSES
• INFRASTRUCTURE
• ETC
CONTINUUM 3: RECURRING
EVENTS (OF A DYNAMIC EARTH)
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.
INTERSECTION OF THESE
CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL
CAUSE A DISASTER,
AND SOME WON’T
WHEN AN INTERSECTION OCCURS,
WILL A DISASTER OCCUR?
THE CP IS “YES” IF THE PEOPLE AND THE COMMUNITY
ARE NOT READY WHEN THE INTERSECTION HAPPENS
COMMUNITY
PEOPLE
CP
EVENTS
S
O
P
T
EXAMPLE OF A DISASTER
LIVING WITH RISK
DISASTER
DECREASED
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
INCREASED
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
LIVING WITH RISK
NO DISASTER THIS TIME
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
A DISASTER
FAILURES IN POLICIES
•FOR POLICIES ON
SUSTAINABILITY
•SECURITY
•HEALTH CARE
…ETC
CAUSES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
YOUR
COMMUNITY
POST-DISASTER
STUDIES
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
DISASTER PREVENTION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
• BEST
POLICIES
•BEST PRACTICES
TURNING POINTS FOR DISASTER
PREVENTION
EDUCATION:
PENETRATE SOCIETY
IGNORANCE TO
ENLIGHTENMENT
BUILDING EQUITY
AND
PENETRATING
SOCIETY
APATHY TO
EMPOWERMENT
BOUNDARIES TO
NETWORKS
ENABLEMENT OF
POLITICAL WILL
POST-DISASTER STUDIES-----ARE LIKE THE
SYSTEM - ANALYSIS
PROCEDURES
FOUR BLIND
PEOPLE WOULD
USE TO DESCRIBE
AN ELEPHANT
2. FROM POST-DISASTER
STUDIES
TO
NEW KNOWLEDGE
THAT CLOSES PRIOR
KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS,
AND
IDENTIFIES WEAK LINKS IN THE
PEOPLE/COMMUNITY
CONTINUUMS
CURRENT KNOWLEDGE
IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL,
EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,
STATISTICAL, FUZZY,
PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND
THEORETICAL MODELS
HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND
UNCERTAINTIES
KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES
DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time
of the available knowledge
BETWEEN organizations, disciplines,
and people will always create
uncertainties in choices and
differences in capability to achieve
disaster prevention.
KNOWLEDGE GAPS
DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time
WITHIN organizations, disciplines, or
individuals will always create
uncertainties that limit the options
for effective disaster prevention.
STRENGTHENING WEAK LINKS
EXPANDS CAPABILITY
IMPROVES DELIVERY
MECHANISMS
POST-DISASTER
KNOWLEDGE
OVERCOMES
UNIVERSAL BARRIERS
CREATES TURNING
POINTS FOR CHANGE
INCREASES COMMUNITY
DISASTER PREVENTION
POST DISASTER STUDIES
• FROM: a) “WHAT HAPPENED”
AND b) “WHY IT HAPPENED”
TO
• c) “WHAT CAN BE DONE” TO
PREVENT A RECURRENCE?
RECURRING FLOODING
Interactions of
Planet Earth’s sun,
atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and
biosphere cause:
Floods.
INTERACTIONS OF EARTH’S
CORE, MANTLE,
ASTHENOSPHERE, AND
LITHOSPHERE, CAUSE
RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
HAITI EARTHQUAKE
JANUARY 12, 2010
INTERACTIONS OF THE
CONTINENTAL
LITHOSPHERE WITH THE
OCEANIC LITHOSPHERE
AND THE HYDROSPHERE
CAUSE RECURRING
TSUNAMIS
TSUNAMI: JAPAN
MARCH 12, 2011
TSUNAMI: OFFSHORE INDONESIA
DEC. 26, 2004
RECURRING SEVERE
WINDSTORMS:
HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, CYCLONES
INTERACTIONS OF THE SUN,
ATMOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE,
TROPOSPHERE, AND
LITHOSPHERE
ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL
STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010
•
•
•
•
Alex (H) June 21
Bonnie July 27
Colin Aug 3
Danielle (H)
Aug 21
• Earl (H) Aug.29
• Fiona Aug 30
RECURRING DROUGHT
EPISODES
Planet Earth’s
atmosphericoceaniclithospheric
interactions
cause:
Droughts
RECURRING VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS:
INTERACTIONS OF THE
CORE, MANTLE,
LITHOSPHERE, AND
ATMOSPHERE
VOLCANIC ERUPTION: ICELAND
APRIL 14, 2010
3. FROM POST-DISASTER
STUDIES TO DISASTER
PREVENTION
A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF A
DISASTER LEADS TO “BEST POLICIES”
AND “BEST PRACTICES” TO PREVENT
RECURRENCES
FROM KNOWLEDGE T0 PREVENTION
RELEVANCE
PUBLIC AWARENESS
BASIC PRINCIPLES
FOR BUILDING A
CULTURE OF DISASTER PREVENTION
INCREASED
UNDERSTANDING
POLITICAL
ENABLEMENT
INCREASED EQUITY
DISASTER PREVENTION
Design and Implementation of
policies and practices:
a) to INCREASE CAPACITY of the
PEOPLE, and
b) to ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES in
the COMMUNITY.
STOP INCREASING COMMUNITY
VULNERABILITY
WHEN THE DIALOGUE IS ON
THE CONTINUUMS WE CARE
ABOUT, WE ALMOST NEVER
LEAVE AYTHING TO
CHANCE
“BEST POLICIES AND
PRACTICES”
• PROTECTION
(BUILD TO
WITHSTAND)
• LAND-USE
CONTROL
(AVOIDANCE)
“BEST POLICIES AND
PRACTICES”
• MONITORING AND
WARNING
(KNOW WHEN TO GET
PEOPLE OUT OF
HARM’S WAY)
• DISASTER SCENARIOS
(ANTICIPATE WHAT IS
LIKELY TO HAPPEN,
THEN GET READY FOR
IT NOW)
PEOPLE AND THEIR
COMMUNITY MUST BE
READY FOR THE
INEVITABLE INTERSECTION
NO
DISASTERS
FUNCTIONAL
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
ORGANIZATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
“BEST POLICIES
AND PRACTICES
READINESS FOR A
POSSIBLE DISASTER
COMMUNITY
INFORMATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
STAKEHOLDERS
ACADEMIA
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