Transcript an integrated framework for global flood disaster resilience

THE GLOBAL DISASTER
LABORATORY MODEL
PART 20B: AN INTEGRATED
FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL FLOOD
DISASTER RESILIENCE
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
FRAMEWORK 1
A COMPREHENSIVE, INTERDISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE
ON
GLOBAL DISASTERS
AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
1. SCOPE
FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS
TO
A DISASTER
TO
DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF
“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
A DISASTER is ----- the set of failures that occur when
the continuums of: 1) people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habitats,
livelihoods, and social constructs),
and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods,
earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in
space and time, when and where the
people and community are not ready.
THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
• PEOPLE (7+ Billion and
counting)
• COMMUNITIES
• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA Natural Hazards, which are
proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
PEOPLE = INNOVATION
CARIBBEAN
BASIN
NORTH
AMERICA
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA
EUROPE
200 NATIONS AND 7+
MEDITERRANEAN
BILLION PEOPLE
SOUTH
AMERICA
ISLAND
NATIONS
ASIA
INTERSECTION OF THESE
CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL
CAUSE A DISASTER,
AND SOME WON’T
THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM
• 7 + BILLION
(DISTRIBUTED
THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD)
LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM
OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM
HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE
FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
• IGNORANCE
• APATHY
• DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES
• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM:
(SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
•
•
•
•
GOVERNMENT
DWELLINGS
SCHOOLS
HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES
• BUSINESSES
• INFRASTRUCTURE
• ETC
EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE
READY FOR THE INEVITABLE
INTERSECTION THAT WILL
CHALLENGE ITS
STATE-OF-RESILIENCE
THE RECURRING - EVENTS
CONTINUUM
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.
RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS
TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES
RECURRING FLOODS
RECURRING DROUGHT
EPISODES
RECURRING VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
CURRENT KNOWLEDGE
IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL,
EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,
STATISTICAL, FUZZY,
PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND
THEORETICAL MODELS
HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND
UNCERTAINTIES
FRAMEWORK 2
A COMPREHENSIVE, INTERDISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION
OF KNOWLEDGE FOR
THE END GAME OF
DISASTER RESILIENCE
ST
IN THE 21 CENTURY
POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
Anticipatory Preparedness
Adoption and Implementation of a Modern
Engineering Building Codes & Standards
Timely Early Warning and Evacuation
Timely Emergency Response (including
Emergency Medical Services)
Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
A DISASTER
FAILURES IN POLICIES
•FLOODS
•SEVERE WIND
STORMS
•EARTHQUAKES
…ETC
CAUSES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
YOUR
COMMUNITY
COUNTER MEASURES
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
DISASTER RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
• BEST
POLICIES
•BEST PRACTICES
THE END GAME CHALLENGE
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST,
AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND
PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE
PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED
FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER
RESILIENCE
BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES
WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE
KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS,
AND
IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE
PEOPLE/COMMUNITY
CONTINUUMS
BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES WILL
CALL FOR INNOVATIVE
USE OF TECHNOLOGY
AND STRATEGIC
PLANNING
THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL
INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS --a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is
increased, b) Physical and
organizational VULNERABILITIES in
the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and
c) Each people-community-hazard
INTERSECTION is met successfully.
FLOODS
INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS
USE GLOBAL FLOOD DISASTER
LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR
PREPARING FROM “A”
(Emergency Response) TO “Z”
(Recovery and Reconstruction)
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
• REAL TIME WEATHER
FORCASTING AND
WARNING SYSTEMS
• MEASURMENT
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G.,
STREAM GAGUES)
• RISK MODELING (E.G.,
HAZUS, INSURANCE
UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES
• MAPS: 100-YEAR AND
500-YEAR FLOODS
• FLOOD DISASTER
SCENARIOS
• DRONE PLANES
• HAZMAT
MANAGEMENT
FLOOD DISASTER
RESILIENCETRATEGIES
RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES
FOR FLOODS
• PURPOSE
• PREVENTION
• PROTECTION
• URBAN PLANNING
• TECHNIQUE
• DRAINAGE BASIN
MANAGEMENT
• FLOOD CONTROL
(DIKES, LEVEES,
AND DAMS)
• HAZARD MAPS
(RISK ZONES)
DRAINAGE BASIN
MANAGEMENT
• WETLANDS AND ,
UPSTREAM
RESERVOIRS
REDUCE THE
VOLUME OF
WATER REACHING
DOWNSTREAM
LOCATIONS
PROTECTION
USE MODERN ENGINEERING DESIGN
AND CONSTRUCTION
TECHNOLOGIES TO PROTECT THE
PEOPLE AND IMPORTANT
INFRASTRUCTURE AND TO FIX
PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES IN THE
COMMUNITY
DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS
• BUILDING AND
MAINTAINING DIKES,
LEVEES, AND DAMS
IN CONCERT WITH
WETLANDS AND
RESERVOIRS CAN
CONTROL SERVERITY
OF FLOODING .
EXAMPLE: THE LEVEE SYSTEM IN
QUINCY, IL: FLOOD CONTROL
• THE 154-MILE-LONG
LEVEE SYSTEM IS
DESIGNED TO
REDUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD AND
SEVERITY OF FLOODS
ON THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
EXAMPLE: THREE GORGES DAM,
CHINA: FLOOD CONTROL
• THE GREATEST
ENGINEERING FEAT
IN CHINA SINCE THE
GREAT WALL IS
DESIGNED TO
REDUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD AND
SEVERITY OF FLOODS
ON THE YANGTZE
RIVER.
THREE GORGES DAM: 2309 M
LONG, 190 M HIGH, 15 M THICK
YANGTZE RIVER
FLOODING: YANGTZE RIVER
• Historical records indicate
that in 2,100 years, between
the early Han Dynasty and
late Qing Dynasty, the
Yangzte flooded 214 times,
an average of once every 10
years.
YANGTZE RIVER AND THREE
GORGES DAM
THREE GORGES DAM
• The Three Gorges
Dam is located in
Central China's Hubei
Province, 600 miles
southwest of Beijing.
• It replaced Brazil's
Itaipu Dam as the
world's largest
hydroelectric and
flood-control
installation.
• After 13 years of
work and 35
million cubic
yards of concrete,
the dam reached
its full height of
190 m (606 ft) and
width of 2,309 m
(7,575 ft) across
the Yangtze River.
FLOOD CONTROL ON THE THAME
RIVER RIVER: LONDON, ENGLAND
URBAN PLANNING
• LAND USE
REGULATIONS
BASED ON FLOOD
HAZARD MAPS CAN
PREVENT UNWISE
CON-STRUCTION IN
RIVER FLOODPLAINS
AND IN COASTAL
AREAS.
STRATEGIES FOR FLOOD
DISASTER RESILIENCE
•
•
•
•
•
• TECHNIQUE
PURPOSE
• EMBANKMENTS;
SITE MODIFICATION SANDBAGS
ALERT/WARNING
• EVACUATION
MONITORING
• INTERNATIONAL
SPACE STATION;
WEATHER RADAR
STRATEGIES FOR FLOOD
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PURPOSE
• RISK ZONES
• PREPAREDNESS
• TECHNIQUE
• STREAM GAGUES;
DRONE PLANES
• 100-500 YEAR
FLOOD MAPS,
DISASTER
SCENARIOS
FORECASTS, ALERTS, AND
WARNINGS; EVACUATION
• WORKS FOR
RIVERINE FLOODS,
BUT NOT FOR
FLASH FLOODS.
SITE MODIFICATION IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN
• EMPLACING 2.5
MILLION SAND
BAGS REDUCED
LOSSES IN THE
GREAT 1992
FLOOD
SAND BAGS: SITE MODIFICATION IN THE
FLOOD OF JUNE 12, 2008 IN IOWA
FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES
• PURPOSE
• CLEAR OUT THE
FLOODPLAIN
• FACILITATE
RECOVERY AND
RECONSTRUCTION
• TECHNIQUE
• FEDERAL BUYOUT
PROGRAM
• FEDERAL FLOOD
INSURANCE
PROGRAM
FLOOD INSURANCE: SPEEDING
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION
• FLOOD INSURANCE
IS OFFERED FOR
PURCHASE BY THE
FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT OF
THE UNITED
STATES
BUYOUTS: CLEARING THE
FLOODPLAIN
• IN THE USA,
BUYOUTS OF
HOMES IN THE
FLOODPLAIN
(FOLLOWED BY
DEMOLATION OR
RELOCATION)
REDUCED RISK
FROM FLOODING