Transcript Osservatorio Congiunturale 22 Mar 2011

Osservatorio Congiunturale 22 Mar 2011
Ing. Samuele Maistri - Head of Market Intelligence - Siemens S.p.A.
Copyright Siemens AG 2011
draft
Agenda
Esiti della crisi globale
Cambiamento delle previsioni GDP Europa
Confronto previsioni PIIGS
Mercati Verticali – Outlook
Considerazioni sui recenti eventi: Giappone
Considerazioni sui recenti eventi: Libia
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The Global Recovery - On Track
Key facts / findings
Real global GDP, change 2009-2012, yoy
5%
Despite worries about sovereign debt, overheating in emerging markets, and food inflation, the
outlook for the global economy remains stable. The final consequences of the devastating
earthquake in Japan, are not predictable yet.
4,1%
4%
FC Mar 11
3,7%
3,9%
3%
Most Asian economies had a good start. Inflation remains the dominant risk. China with increasing
concerns about overheating.
FC Jan 10
In the U.S. consumers are becoming more active, manufacturing returning to a more robust pace of
expansion, and even the labor market showing some signs of entering recovery mode. Nevertheless,
the recovery is still fragile and significant downside risks remain.
2%
The recovery in the Eurozone is likely to lose momentum in the first half of this year because of fiscal
austerity programs and higher interest rates stemming from market fears about sovereign
defaults/restructuring. Growth engine Germany with slightly less steam.
1%
Japan: In addition to the loss of life, the economic impact of the earthquake will be noticeable in
both the effect on workers and on factories. GDP will probably show no growth for one or two
quarters, while subsequent quarters should see more rapid growth due to rebuilding and
construction.
0%
-1%
-2%
2009
Inflation pressures continue to mount, as higher food and energy costs are increasingly passed on to
consumers. In addition, political uncertainty in the Middle East and North Africa region threatens
to push oil prices even higher in the months ahead. The biggest concern is that the political unrest
could spill into the Gulf States.
-1,9%
2010
2011
2012
Source: IHS Global Insight 03/2011
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Western Europe
Change of GDP-projections for 2011 and 2012 (over the last 12 months)
GDP-forecasts for 2011
3,0%
GDP-forecasts for 2012
3 ,0 %Germany
2,5%
3,0%
2,5%
2,3%
2,2%
2 ,0 %Germany
1,9 %
2 ,0 %
2,0%
2,0%
1,8 %1,8%
1,5%
1,6% UK
1,6 % France
1,5%
UK
France
1,9 %
1,5%
1,3 %
1,1%
1,2 %
1,0%
0,5%
1,0 %
0 ,9 %Italy
0 ,6 %
0 ,5%Spain
0,0%
1,0%
0 ,9 %Spain
0,5%
0,0%
2010
2011
2010
Date of prognoses
Date of prognoses
Source: IHS Global Insight
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Highly indebted Eurozone countries („PIIGS“)
draft
Change of GDP-projections for 2011 and 2012 (over the last 12 months)
GDP-forecasts for 2011
GDP-forecasts for 2012
3,0%
3,0%
2 ,3 %
2,5%
2,5%
2,0%
2,0%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
Ireland
1,1%
1,0 %
1,2 %
0,8%
0 ,9 %
Italy
1,0%
0 ,5%
Spain
0,5%
0 ,6 %
0,0%
1,5%
2 ,8 %
2,0%
1,8 %
1,9 %
1,3 %
1,1%
0 ,9 %
1,2 %
0 ,5%
0,0%
-0,1%
-0,5%
Ireland
Italy
Spain
Portugal
Greece
-0,5%
- 0 ,7%
-1,0%
Portugal
-1,0%
-1,5%
-1,5%
-2,0%
-2,0%
-2,5%
-2,5%
-3,0%
-3,3%
-3,5%
-4,0%
Greece
-3,0%
-3,5%
-4,0%
2010
2011
2010
Date of prognoses
2011
Date of prognoses
Source: IHS Global Insight
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Vertical Market Outlook
Vertical Market
Production
Revenues
Import
Export
Note
aumento della marginalità
bilancia in pareggio nel FY12
Food & Beverage
▬
▬
▲
▲
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Textile
▼
▼
▲
▼
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▬
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▬
aumento della marginalità
situazione di sostanziale stabilità
Wood & Paper
▬
▼
▲
▬
▲▲
▼
▲▲
▼
aumento della marginalità
aumento dell'importazione
Oil & Gas
▲
▲
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▲
Chemicals
▼
▼
▲
▬
▲▲
▬
▲
▬
sostanziale stabilità
aumento dell'importazione
Pharma
▼
▬
▬
▲
▲
▲▲
▲
▲
sostanziale stabilità
aumento dell'importazione
Metals
▲▲
▬
▲▲
▬
▲▲
▲
▲▲
▬
Anno di ripresa, previsioni
caute per il 2012
Machine Building
▲▲
▬
▲▲
▲
▲▲
▲▲
▲▲
▲▲
▲
▬
▼▼
▲
▲▲
▬
▼
▬
FY11
FY12
FY11
FY12
FY11
FY12
FY11
FY12
Machine Tools
aumento della marginalità,
diversificazione
Source: ISTAT – HIS
Elaboration: Siemens
■ Generale incertezza sulla ripresa dei mercati post-crisi
■ Domanda interna limitata dallo scarso potere d’acquisto
■ Incremento della marginalità in molti settori
■ Minacce alla competitività: rialzo tassi di interesse
■ Aumento delle importazioni
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In forte ripresa,
aiutato dalle esportazioni
sostanziale stabilità, sofferenza
da competitività €/$
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Japan – Earthquake effects
Significance The scale of the disaster still unfolding in Japan is stunning and will cause huge disruption for the country, particularly the north-east, for a
considerable period.
Implications Enormous though the disaster is, analysis of similar past events suggests the economic impact for Japan will be large for a quarter or two,
but that the reconstruction effort will subsequently boost growth. Looking at the global picture, supply chains are disrupted for many firms
and confidence has taken a hit, but we do not expect a significant impact on headline economic data.
Outlook There are nonetheless downside risks to this scenario that must be watched; notably sustained electricity supply disruption in Japan and
the major nuclear disaster that affects a much larger swathe of the country.
Europe
The big uncertainty about this disaster (and what sets it apart from other such disasters)
is that roughly 10% to 15% of electricity generation capacity (both nuclear and coal)
may be offline for a few months. In the near term, this could have major negative
ramifications for Japanese industrial sectors; some steel and automotive factories have
already been closed.
The impact on global supply chains could also
be significant. This is especially important in industries such as automotive and steel
and may result in a boost in the demand for these products from other sources,
including the rest of Asia, the United States, and Europe.
The overall impact on European growth should be limited. Japan is not a huge export market for
most European countries, although any impact to global growth would obviously have an effect. In
2009, Asia as a whole accounted for 7.3% of German exports, 6.6% of French, 5.6% of Italian, and
8.1% of United Kingdom.
If the impact on Japanese growth will be limited in the near term and there is some boost to growth
further out from reconstruction work, then Western European growth will not be significantly
affected.
Germany is the most export-oriented Eurozone economy, so it may be hit more than most. The
direct trade impact is not that large, as Japan provides less than 3% of German imports and Japan
buys just over 1% of total German exports. Export and import shares of other large European
economies to Japan are roughly the same or smaller.
Source: IHS Global Insight
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Libyan Military Action
The main concern for Western Europe is that the economic climate is still pretty fragile, with overall recovery from the deep 2008/09 recession being gradual overall and bumpy so far. Therefore, it is more
vulnerable to shocks than would be the case if it was in the middle of a robust upturn.
Significance The scale of the military action are still unknown and will certainly cause consequences in Oil&Gas and energy prices, for a considerable
period.
Implications Still undefined the time period of the military action and the recovery period. Looking at the global picture, due to Libyan 2% share in
Oil&Gas supply chain, small gains in the price of oil and a bit of gold action could be expected with no substantial impact on headline
economic data.
Outlook investors are primarily driven by the long-term growth prospects for the global economy and while there are many risks to this at the
moment, they are still on the margins. Libya -- with disruption to its 2 percent of world oil output already priced in -- does not matter from
that perspective as things stand.
Source: Reuters
the reason that investors seem calm about Libya and less anxious about Japan is
that the global economy is doing well.
The International Monetary Fund projects that global growth will be in the region of
4.4 percent this year, well above average for the past 20 years
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Thanks for your attention
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