Transcript desarrollar la acuicultura en LA REGION?

PERSPECTIVES FOR AQUACULTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND LAM AND ITS GLOBAL REACH
Francisco de la Torre
Regional Director – Americas Region
Caribbean Week of Agriculture
October 9-10, 2013
Georgetown, Guyana
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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
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WORLD POPULATION HAS DOUBLED
DURING OUR TIMES (TODAY ~7 BILLION) FAO,
2010
9000
8000
Poblacion (millones)
7000
6000
• Commodity prices increase >130% since 2002
• Population increase
• Expanding economies
• Increased standard of living
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
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SIZE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 50
YEARS, 1984-2034 (2005 PPP DOLLARS)
Source: Homi Kharas, The Emerging Middle Class in Developing
Countries, OECD 2010.
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THE ECONOMIC CENTER OF GRAVITY HAS SHIFTED,
1980–2007 (IN BLACK) & EXTRAPOLATED (IN RED), IN
THREE YEAR INTERVALS.
Source: Danny Quah, “The global economy's shifting centre of
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gravity”, LSE 2010
GROWING PURCHASING POWER, GROWTH IN MIDDLE CLASS:
IN 2030, 66% OF THE MIDDLE CLASS WILL BE IN ASIA PACIFIC
Numbers in (millions) and percentages of the global middle class
Source: Homi Kharas, The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, OECD
2010.
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THE MIDDLE CLASS IS THE MAIN CONSUMER
OF AQUACULTURE PRODUCTS
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THE PROPORTION OF ANIMAL PROTEIN IN
THE DIET INCREASES AS PER CAPITA
INCOME INCREASES
Source: H.H. Jensen / Marine Pollution Bulletin 53 (2006)
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NOT NECESSARILY THE PROPORTION OF FISH PROTEIN
VS. TOTAL ANIMAL PROTEIN INCREASES WITH PER
CAPITA INCOME INCREASES: CULTURAL ASPECTS AND
NATURAL RESOURCES PLAY A ROLE
Source: H.H. Jensen / Marine Pollution Bulletin
53 (2006)
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Projected requirements of aqua products
(TMT), 2025 & 2050
250
200
150
100
50
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Additional demand if consumption increases at same rate as from 1975-2008
Additional demand if consumption stable at 2008 level - 17.2 kg/capita whole fish
Aquaculture production less plants (assume stable production past 2008 - 52 Mt)
Capture production less non-food (assume stable production past 2008 - 64Mt)
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Source: Geoff Allan, Port Stephens Fisheries Intitute
DEVELOP AQUACULTURE IN
THE REGION?
YES
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WHY?
Food security
Productive diversification
Alternative to fisheries
Generates jobs
Reduce poverty
Improve competitiveness
Does the region have the
resources?
YES
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AQUACULTURE IS MORE EFFICIENT
THAN THE ALTERNATIVES
Conversion rate 10 : 1
per trophic level
Fish oil dependency app 2,5 : 1
(current feed)
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HOW?
Sustainable development
Must consider 5 component:
environmental
Economic
Social
Technology
Institutional
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AQUACULTURE PRESENTS THE GREATEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE FOOD SECTOR
Avoid mistakes made in the global industry
development
Sustainable and efficient (ecology and productive)
Application of latest technologies
Creation of economically viable businesses
Fix industry structural problems
Create legal framework
• Laws
• Mandatory and voluntary Norms
Orderly use of resources that support aquaculture
Productive chain
Value added
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AQUACULTURE PRESENTS THE GREATEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE FOOD SECTOR (CONT..)
Much potential
Great diversity of species (fish, mollusks,
crustaceans, etc.).
Significant water resources (ocean and fresh
water)
Technology development
Production units:
• Based on successful commercial-size
operations
• Sustainable technology
• Size to guarantee commercial viability
• Well paid jobs
• Financial planning (production volume,
investment, costs, income, etc.).
• Integration
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INTEGRATION OF PRODUCTIVE
CHAIN
Broodstock
Larviculture
Manufactured aquafeeds
Nursery
Technology
Management
Cost
Risk
Yields
Markets
Efficiency
Economic return
Growout
Processing
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MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Analyze present and potential markets
(domestic vs. export).
Innovate with value added products.
Develop new distribution channels (e.g.
market niches)
Promote consumption
Improve competitiveness in aqua
products
Improve nutritional quality
Meet customers expectations for quality
& food safety.
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TILAPIA EXPORTS FROM CHINA
Volumen = 224,359 Ton
US
Mexico
SubSahara Africa
Russia
EU
Others
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CONCLUSIONS:
RISKS FOR PRIVATE SECTOR:
FINACIAL:
Working capital requirements (2 years + time to
market size)
BIOLOGICAL:
Fish and shrimp are exposed to disease, toxins,
etc.
OTHER:
Market – changes in consumer habits, economy
Cost of ingredients/feeds
Climatic changes
Changes in legislation (permits, etc.)
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AQUACULTURE IS NOT HIGHLY
CONSOLIDATED
The largest protein
producers have
revenues above 10
billion USD per
year
Leading protein producers, yearly sales (2010)
35000
30000
25000
With the exception
of some salmon
and a few shrimp
producers, most of
the aquaculture
sector is populated
by producers with
revenues below
USD 100 million
million USD
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Seafood companies
Source: Rabobank, 2011
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INVESTMENTS IN THE AQUACULTURE WILL
COME FROM A DIVERSE GROUP OF
INVESTORS
Each investor type has
different goals and
requirements
The aquaculture sector
(and their banks) have
the task of profiling
themselves and
educating potential
investors about the
opportunities in this
industry
Wild
Catch
Venture
capital
Seafood
processing
Aquaculture
Animal
protein
Equity
funds
Private
equity
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CONCLUSIONS (cont..)
Increased demand in Asia, will incentivize aqua
development in other regions (i.e. CBB/LATAM)
Investors/Investment:
Long-term focus/commitment
Professional investors (investment funds,
development banks, etc.) and companies
established in similar activities (animal protein
producers/marketers, fisheries)
Conscious of the fact that it is a capital intensive
investment
Development of business plans / growth plans
Market focus
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CONCLUSIONES (cont..)
Government YES:
Develop stable rules and policies for the development of the
industry by the private industry (long-term)
Permit process simple
Research and infrastructure development
Work with industry to resolve critical aspects (e.g. disease,
financing, etc.).
Promote and monitor food safety
Government NO:
Subsidize production units or develop government farms that
will compete with private sector
Allow indiscriminate development that could destroy the
environment
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THE AQUACULTURE OPPORTUNITY
Aquaculture market is massive
• Rising new middle class in Asia is driving demand
• Aquaculture represents ~$80-100 billion market today
and will continue to grow at 5-10% annually
Innovation will be essential
• Disease management, genetic improvement, etc.
Shift to sustainable aquaculture is inevitable
• Major shift is just beginning – commitment to sustainable
food production will be a reality over the next five years
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FINAL COMMENTS
GENERAL:
Increase demand in Asia, will promote development of
the industry in other regions (i.e. CBB/LAM)
More attention will be needed on hatchery, production
systems and disease prevention
Climatic change will dramatically affect aquaculture
Certification will have an important impact on the
industry
Nutritional requirements must be understood better
and ingredients will continue to move toward plant
proteins
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POSSIBLE AREAS OF
COLLABORATION?
Develop comprehensive plan for development of the
industry in the region
Education / technology transfer
Locating sources of capital and potential investors
Locating institutions, people who need to get involved
Aquaculture Investment Workshop
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WHERE WE ARE
Headquarters located in Saint
Louis, MO, USA
America’s Regional Office is located
in Guadalajara, Mexico
Mexico, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Honduras,
Panama, Venezuela, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Chile,
Dominican Republic, Trinidad & Tobago, Jamaica, Barbados,
y Canada.
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PROGRAMS
Courses/training at U.S. institutions
RAPCO courses in Mexico, CAM, SAM
Local and regional seminars and workshops
Technical assistance on aqua feed formulation
and manufacturing
On-farm feeding demonstrations
Buyer’s missions to the U.S. and risk management
training
Participation at international expos/conferences
Aquaculture investment workshop
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HOW?
Work in cooperation with industry in
the region
Open discussion on industry
needs/wants and match with U.S. soy
industry/USSEC’s goals.
Strengthening productive sector within
aquaculture industry (efficiency,
profitability and Sustainable)
Creating demand
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Thank you.
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