Transcript The case of the WorldFish Center

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ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
(EACC)
Vietnam Case Study*
Fisheries & Aquaculture Sector
Kam Suan Pheng, Marie-Caroline Badjeck,
Robert Pomeroy, Mike Phillips
November, 2009
• World Bank funded
• 5-month study
• WorldFish Center, MCD,
CTU, Sub-NIAPP
* Other case study countries: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Samoa
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Study Objectives
Impact assessment:
– What is the vulnerability of the aquaculture sector to CC
(expected impacts?), what is the vulnerability of dominant
aquaculture regions of the country to CC?
– What are the physical as well as economic losses which
may be expected over the period 2010 to 2050 as a result
of CC?
Adaptation options:
– What are the plausible adaptation options?
• planned
• autonomous
– What are the costs and benefits?
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The four-step methodology
• Examine CC projections, assess exposure, dependency, sensitivity
& potential impacts
• Learning from the past: assessment of adaptive capacity &
adaptation benefit
• Estimate impacts & adaptation costs
• Macro-level assessment of adaptation to CC
EACC Final Methodology Report, 2009
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Study Framework
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EXPOSURE
- nature and degree to which
the aquaculture sector is
exposed to predicted CC
DEPENDENCY
- reliance on the
aquaculture sector
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
- ability to cope with
climate-related changes
VULNERABILITY
- the nature and extent of
losses incurred by the
aquaculture sector due to CC
DEVELOPMENT PLANS
- aquaculture sector
- other sectors
ADAPTATION OPTIONS
- costs & benefits
- policy implications
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Scale & area of focus
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Mekong River Delta
Overall national level
Source: Agricultural Atlas of Vietnam
• Vulnerability of the
aquaculture sector as a whole
• Province-level analysis
•
•
Vulnerability of shrimp farming
production systems
Vulnerability of catfish production
systems
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Capture vs culture production
in Vietnam


1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Prel. 2008
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Source: General Statistical Office of Vietnam
Share of national
GDP, %
Capture Culture
5.05
2.14
5.01
2.06
4.83
2.08
4.93
2.19
5.08
2.88
4.85
3.82
4.63
4.18
4.39
4.71
4.25
5.26
4.04
5.78
3.78
6.06
3.56
6.58
3.37
6.61
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Export of aquatic products
Production of cultured shrimp and fish
Source: VASEP
Regional distribution of (a) cultured shrimp, and (b) cultured fish production
(b)
(a)
7Source: General Statistical Office of Vietnam
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Exposure
• Climate change
 Temperature rise
 Rainfall patterns
• Sea-level rise & other marine impacts
 Impact on hydrology
 Coastal extreme events
 Marine catch & feed supply
• Infrastructure development
 Coastal dykes
 River bunds
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Climate change
• Temperature rise (0.03oC per year; 1.2oC from 2010-50)
 Effect on physiology and growth of cultured species
 Increased evaporation and salinity of shrimp ponds
 Increased decomposition of feed in waters  pollution
• Rainfall patterns
 Direct impacts on aquaculture sector?
 Interaction with hydrology
Sea level rise & other CC-induced
marine phenomena
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• Sea-level rise (30 cm by 2050; 75 cm by 2100)
• Changes to hydrology in the delta
• Increased flooding in the upper delta in the wet season:
impact on freshwater aquaculture
• Increased salinity intrusion in the coastal area in the dry
season: impact on brackish-water aquaculture link
• Coastal extreme events
• Direct damage to aquaculture structures, especially those
directly exposed
• Marine catch & feed supply
• Supply of trash fish and fish meal
Infrastructure development
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• Coastal dykes for coast defense
• River bunds for flood protection
• Plans for stage-wise development:
how to analyze economics of
gradual adaptation?
- modifies the hydrology & aquaculture potential
- costs & benefits are multi-sectoral: needs general
equilibrium analysis* to account for inter-sectoral
reallocation of resources that could occur due to CC
* e.g. input-output and computable general equilibrium models
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Dependency
 Means something/someone being reliant on the sector
in question
 This reliance can come in different forms and scales:
At the national scale: “The importance of fisheries to the
national economy and food security” (Allison et al. 2009)
=>Fisheries dependence index: social, psychological (identity)
economic, dimensions, includes post-harvesting (Griffith and
Dyer 1996)
At the community or local scale: focus on employment &
cultural importance (Jacob et al. 2005, Brookfield et al. 2005,
Moniz et al. 2000)
Dependency
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The scale and nature of dependency across the value chain
varies with sub-sector, e.g. in the Mekong River delta
 The catfish industry employs about 0.5 million people:
250,000 in production; 200,000 in processing; 50,000
people in support services – moving towards vertical
integration
 The shrimp industry involves about 1 million farmers
operating mainly at small scale; extensive to semiintensive level over large area – high participation in
production but lower in processing.
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Adaptive Capacity*
• AC of a country/provinces to drivers of change (including
climate change) => broad indicators of socio-economic
development
• AC to climate change => specific indicators related to policies/
instruments to reduce vulnerability to climate change
(presence/absence of adaptation, DRR, DRM plans etc.)
• AC of the fisheries and aquaculture sector => sectoral
indicators: production diversification, reliance on feed
imports, labour flexibility
• AC of production systems (catfish & shrimp) => species
tolerance limit (salinity, pH etc), flexibility of supply chain?,
flooding (ponds vs cages)
What instances of adaptation are already being shown by
farmers, communities?
* the ability or capacity of a system (e.g. sector, country, region, etc.) to
evolve & adapt to new situations as they arise, and/or to apply novel
responses to address the change
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Vulnerability & Economic Analysis
Impact assessment:
– What is the vulnerability of the aquaculture sector to CC
(expected impacts?), what is the vulnerability of dominant
aquaculture regions of the country to CC?  indicators link
– What are the physical as well as economic losses which
may be expected over the period 2010 to 2050 as a result
of CC?
Adaptation options:
– What are the plausible adaptation options, planned &
autonomous?
– What are the costs and benefits?
The economic analysis will involve a two-level analysis
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I.
Economic costs
 Focus on catfish and shrimp; conduct farm-level
analysis
 Identify & describe the production & marketing system
(value chain)
 Conduct current financial analysis using budget
analysis
 Conduct partial budget analysis to identify changes to
production costs due to CC impacts
 Marketing system analysis of market channel and
costs
 Household/farm level analysis of impacts on losses to
revenue, income & employment
 Scale up results to the shrimp & catfish industry
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II. Costs & benefits of adaptation
Identify adaptation options
 Compile a list of potential autonomous (private) and
public (government-led) adaptation measures and
estimate the total impact of these measures in the
aquaculture sector.
 Estimate the potential impacts as well as costs and
benefits of the specified public adaptation measures.
 Identify which adaptation measures offer the greatest
economic return and the best possibility to climateproof the aquaculture sector
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II. Costs & benefits of adaptation
Cost/benefit analysis
 Consider 2 scenarios: without (A); with (B) CC
 Scenario A is based on planned set of investment over the
next 40 years
 Scenario B incorporates costs of projects in response to CC
 Address mitigation, development, different types of
adaptations, uncertainty, time
 Conduct costs/benefits analysis on an optimal set of
projects with and without CC, using standard CBA
methodology
Note: The development of a general equilibrium analysis model (inputoutput, Computable GE) is beyond the scope of this study
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Aquaculture and CC
 Diversity of production systems for aquaculture, fitting into different agroecologies, ranging from purely aquaculture activities to integrated
production of a variety of aquatic organisms
 potentially an adaptable sector to respond to CC
 Aquaculture, in various forms, competes with and complements other food
production systems particularly in the use of water resources
 “as much as CC mitigation is about energy, CC adaptation is about
water”; this is particularly pertinent in the context of aquaculture
 Aquaculture production is at different levels of intensity and capitalization
and involves different levels of participation
 vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities vary
 A dynamic and volatile sector subjected to economic booms and busts;
export-oriented commodities susceptible to global fluctuations in demand;
VN producers and the government are highly market-responsive; 10-15 year
planning horizon
 “Climate is not the only change around”; CC is a “slow variable”
We are barely scratching the surface in dealing with the economics of
adaptation of the aquaculture sector to CC
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For discussion…