Transcript The Role of Foresight in Structural and Thematic Priority-Se

The Role of Foresight in Structural and
Thematic Priority-Setting:
two cases from Australia
Professor Ron Johnston
Australian Centre for Innovation
University of Sydney
www.aciic.org.au
DG-JRC-IPTS Sevilla
7 October 2008
Australian Centre for Innovation & International Competitiveness
Structure of the Presentation
1. Current state of foresight/strategic
intelligence
2. Unusual Case 1 – structural
priority-setting
3. Unusual Case 2 – thematic priority
setting
4. The role for quantification
5. Conclusions
Current state of foresight/
strategic intelligence
 A climate of urgency to address the future
 Increased adoption at many levels and in
many forms
 Varied roles:
 an expert-based policy informing tool;
 an integral part of policy processes, operating by
forward looking strategic support to informing
and co-ordinating functions;
 a pacemaker through capacity building for policy
intelligence
 a tool for impact assessment.
Structural priority-setting in
the Australian Innovation
Review
http://www.innovation.gov.au/innovationreview
The Review’s Perspective on
Innovation
 Innovation is commonly described as “creating
value by doing things differently”. From this
viewpoint we can only identify innovation
after the event.
 If we are going to influence innovation
outcomes we need an active appreciation of
the dynamic processes associated with
innovation that lead to change. Thus the focus
should be on innovating and being
innovative.
The Context of the Review
- change of Government after 11 years
- a series of reviews of education, universities,
industrial relations, the federal system of
government, the tax system, emissions trading, the
auto and TCF industries, and the CRC program
- declining investment and performance, particularly
in the past 5 years:
 A decline by 25% of Govt funding for R&I as % of
GDP
 Investment in education declined as a % of GDP
while other OECD countries were massively
increasing theirs
 Zero increase in multi-factor productivity
A Systems Approach
 The Review takes a systems approach
to understanding Australia’s
innovation performance and
challenges. This means treating all
the elements of the innovation
system as a dynamic and
interconnected whole, not just
concentrating on single components.
Issues for Submissions
 Can we imagine a better world? Are
we asking the right questions?
 How do we solve the big challenges
we face?
 Could we do everyday things better?
 How do we make it easier for people
to apply ideas in novel ways?
 How do we educate our people to be
more creative?
The Strategic Intelligence
Component
 Not a formal foresight process
 Extraction of views of a desired future
contained in >700 submissions
 Interpreted through the experiences
and a strong vision of the Committee
of Review
 Projection of a series of structural
targets
Structural targets (quantitative)
 Total factor productivity growth >2.5%pa
 >40% of employees with tertiary education
 50% of firms produce new-to-market
innovations pa
 70% of firms produce non-tech innovation pa
 Firm collaboration with PROs >50%
 Firm collaboration with HEIs >30%
Thematic priority-setting via the
CSIRO Flagship Program
http://www.csiro.au/partnerships/NRF.html
National Research Flagships

the largest scientific research programs ever undertaken in
Australia – with total investment to 2010–11 of more than
$1.5 billion

Flagships recognise that complex large-scale challenges
require sophisticated cross-boundary responses that can
only be delivered by bringing together the best and the
brightest from across the Australian innovation system

Focused on major national priorities

Focused on outcomes. committed to delivering research
solutions that target clearly defined goals

They have a larger scale, longer timeframes and stronger
focus on adoption of research outputs than other programs
Nine Flagships

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
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
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
Energy
Water
Health
Light metals
Oceans
Food
Climate adaptation
Minerals
Niche manufacturing (nanotechnology)
Energy Transformed Flagship
Goals: To
 halve greenhouse gas emissions
 double the efficiency of the nation’s
new energy generation, supply and
end use
 position Australia for a future
hydrogen economy
 by 2050
Some Activities
 SolarGas™- a new energy source which contains 25%
more energy than the natural gas used to feed the
process
 Post Combustion Carbon Capture
 Enhanced Coal Bed Methane extraction
 The Ultra Battery
 Responsive intelligent distributed energy network
 Distributed generation
 CO2 sequestration in coal
 CO2 behaviour in deep saline aquifers
The Crucial Steering Mechanism The Energy Futures Forum
 The Energy Futures Forum brings together Australia’s
energy and transport stakeholders to identify
plausible scenarios for energy in 2050 and their
implications for the nation’s energy future.
 Stakeholders included energy suppliers, generators,
distributors, major energy end-users, financiers,
government and community representatives.
 Eight scenarios were developed from a base case with
variants incorporating nuclear, renewable energy,
distributed energy and ‘deep greenhouse gas cut’
scenarios.
The Role for Quantification in
Foresight – important qualifiers
 Quantification does not provide
greater truth or precision unless the
supporting theories and models
adequately reflect underlying
structures and relationships
 Processes (like foresight) are largely
defined in qualitative terms eg
management, strategy, but can be
supported by metrics
Some Quantitative Approaches
being used in Foresight
 Process and decision-models embedded in
software eg scenario generation
 Simulation tools
 Complex adaptive systems modelling
 Cross-impact analysis
 Gaming
 Data mining
 Impact evaluation
Conclusions
 Foresight/strategic intelligence
processes, tools and applications are
multiplying
 Practice is far in advance of an
adequate theoretical conception
 There is need for both radical and
incremental development of both
qualitative and quantitative
approaches