Transcript (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th

Second International Seville Seminar on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006
LUXEMBOURG FORESIGHT: A ‘STANDARD’
EXERCISE IN A ‘PECULIAR’ CONTEXT?
Frank Glod, Carlo Duprel, and Michael Keenan*
Fonds National de la Recherche, Luxembourg
*PREST, University of Manchester
Luxembourg Foresight
The Luxembourg Context
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Total Surface: 2’586 km2
Inhabitants: 455’000 (39% nonLuxembourg)
Multilingual Population:
Luxembourgish, French, German, English
GDP per capita: 56’600 EUR in 2005:
162 Banks, 366 insurance companies
ARCELOR, CLT-UFA, SES-GLOBAL,
Ceratizit, GoodYear, DuPont, Delphi,
Teijin, TDK, Fanuc, … (2000 researchers)
Amazon, AOL, Microsoft
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Public research Budget:
• 1999:
~15M€
(0.08 % of GDP)
• 2005:
~50M€
(0.35 % of GDP)
• 2009 :
~180M€
(~0.66% of GDP)
1 University (2000),
4 Public research centres, several
other research institutions (500
persons)
'OECD’ reform and City of Science
Luxembourg Foresight
Current issues
Issue
Points to be addressed by F.
Improve Gouvernance
(Performance contracts)
Highlight priority areas for
public investment
Substitution of Sovereignty
niches by competence niches
Identify possible areas of
interests
Improve coordination between Aid dialogue
STI actors
Clarification of role of
actors
Identify means of support in
priority areas
Development of City of
Science
Inform on existing
competence ‘clusters’
Building capacity and
absorption of budget
increase
Highlight priority areas,
capacity gaps and
implementation issues
Luxembourg Foresight
Objective of the Exercise
─ New FNR programmes
─ Identification of research domains in the public sector
with socio-economic interest for Luxembourg
• 2 classes of priority
• Class 1: top national (3-5) priorities, heavily
increased funding
• Class 2: slightly increased funding
• Funding at constant level for existing activities
• Scientific and political rationale for this choice of
priorities
• Proposal of set of priorities to government in march 2007
─ Clarification and dissemination of strategic aim of FNR
programmes among stakeholders
─ Consolidation of communication networks amongst
stakeholders
Luxembourg Foresight
Phase 1
Interviews
60 major
stakeholders
Questionnaires
> 30% response rate
Data collection
(General lack of data)
Data analysis
Diagnosis
FNR
Programme
Evaluation
Mapping
R&D in
Luxembourg
Internet
Forum
Strategy Building
Building
Strategic
Scenarios
Background
data report
Priorities Building
Exploratory
Workshop
FNR Board and
Sci. Council
meeting
Trends at
international
level
Phase 2
Priorities/Recommendations to the
Ministries
Young researchers
workshop
FNR programmes
Luxembourg Foresight
Phase 2
─ Develop thematic recommendations of the Foresight Phase I
into classified priorities
•1 stakeholder meeting to discuss the Lisbon objective
•2 meetings of expert panel (20 stakeholders
national/internat. public/user/private) for each field:
• Physical Sciences and Engineering
• Social sciences and Humanities
• Law, Economy and Finance
• Environmental Sciences
• Life Sciences
• ICT
Final Report
WS_2
Interim Report
Input
Papers
WS_1
Launch/
S-WS
09/06
10/06
11/06
12/06
01/07
02/07
03/07
Luxembourg Foresight
Conclusion
─ Overall positive response to initiative
─ Time constraint, goal oriented approach
socialisation process neglected
─ FNR mandated to conduct exercise although limited
authority
─ Focus on current issues, future-orientated
thinking came short
─ Expected results obtained
─ Foresight seen as priority setting tool
─ Confusion at level of objective: FNR programmes
and/or National priorities?
─ Pre-determinate Paths through parallel
activities: STI reform and the City of Science
Luxembourg Foresight
Particuliarities
─ Small environment allowed almost exhaustive
involvement of major stakeholders
─ Limited baseline data available, Need for
baseline apparent
─ Data from rapidly changing/young environment
difficult
─ Parochial concerns and biases prevail
─ The Foresight characterised by an immediate
implementation into FNR programmes and
Gouvernmental programme (STI reform)
─ Unique position of allocating ‘new money’ and no
immediate budgets cuts are to be expected
─ Expansion to new promising areas for Luxembourg