Transcript Technology

Innovative Policy and
Technology Foresight in Korea
2011 . 5. 3
Suk Joon KIM, Ph.D.
President
Science and Technology Policy Institute
Republic of Korea
Contents
Korean STI Development and Achievement
Korean S&T Plans and Policies
Korean Technology Foresight
Linking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases
Lessons Learned
1
Economic Indicators
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Population(1000)
25,012
32,241
38,124
42,869
45,985
48,874
GDP(US$, Billion)
2.0
8.1
63.8
263.7
511.8
1,014.3
Growth Rate of GDP(%)
1.2
8.8
-1.5
9.2
8.5
6.2
GDP per capita(US$)
79
254
1,645
6,147
10,841
20,753
-311
-1,149
-4,787
-4,828
11,786
41,172
Exports(US$, Million)
33
835
17,505
65,016
172,268
466,384
Imports(US$, Million)
344
1,984
22,292
69,844
160,481
425,212
Trade Balance(US$, Million)
Source: Bureau of Statistics.
2
STI(Science, Technology and Innovation) Statistics and Outputs
1963
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
GERD(US$, Million)
4
33
428
4,676
13,849
31,288
Gov’t-funded vs.
Private-funded(%)
97 : 3
71 : 29
64 : 36
19 : 81
25 : 75
29 : 71
R&D Expenditure/GDP(%)
0.25*
0.38*
0.77*
1.87
2.39
3.57
No. of Researchers
(FTE, Persons)
n.a.
5,628
18,434
70,503
159,973
309,063
No. of Applications for
Domestic Patents
771
1,846
5,070
25,820
102,136
163,523
No. of Applications for
U.S. Patents
3(1964)
3
8
225
3,786
23,584**
No. of Articles Published
on SCI Journals
n.a.
n.a.
236(1981)
1,587
12,472
35,569
No. of Industrial
Laboratories
n.a.
n.a.
46(1981)
966
7,110
16,719**
Source: Ministry of Science and Technology.
* R&D / GNP ** year of 2008
3
Exports
[1960s]
Natural Resource
[1980s]
Light Industries; Heavy and
Chemical Industries
1960
Item
[2000s]
High-tech. Industries; Heavy
and Chemical Industries
2009
1980
Item
%
Item
%
%
1
Iron Ore
13.0
Textiles
28.8
Ships
10.2
2
Tungsten Ore
12.6
Electronics
11.4
Wireless Telecom.
Equipment
8.1
3
Raw Silk
6.7
Iron/Steel Products
9.0
Semiconductor
6.7
4
Anthracite
5.8
Footwear
5.2
LCD
6.4
5
Cuttlefish
5.5
Ships
3.5
Automobile
6.2
6
Live Fish
4.5
Synthetic Fibers
3.3
Petrochemical Products
6.1
7
Natural Graphite
4.2
Metal Products
2.3
Automobile Parts
3.0
8
Plywood
3.3
Plywood
2.0
Broadcasting Equipment
1.6
9
Rice
3.3
Fish
2.0
Special Ships
1.4
Bristles
3.0
Electrical Goods
1.9
Computers
1.4
10
Source: Korea Int’l Trade Association, Korea Customs Service.
4
Technological Needs/Efforts
1960s
1970s
1980s
Industry for
Promotion
Light
Industry
Heavy and
Chemical
Industry
Technology
-Intensive
Industry
Technological
Needs
Operation
Technology
Equipmentembodied
Technology
Production
Technology
Critical/
Essential
Technology
Creative
Technology
Importation/
Learning of
Turnkey-based
Foreign
Technologies
Absorption/
Assimilation
of Foreign
Technologies,
Reverse
Engineering
Modification
of Foreign
Technologies,
Fostering of
Endogenous
Technology
Development
Broadening/
Deepening of
Domestic
R&D Efforts
Strengthening
of Future
-oriented
R&D
Efforts
Technological
Efforts
Imitation
1990s
New Industry
Including ICT
2000s
KnowledgeIntensive
Industry
Innovation
Source: Hwang, Yongsoo (2007).
5
Contents
Korean STI Development and Achievement
Korean S&T Plans and Policies
Korean Technology Foresight
Linking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases
Lessons Learned
6
577 Initiative
Input
5%
Investment
Reach to 5% of GDP on GERD
① Key industrial technologies
② Emerging industrial technologies
Process
③ Knowledge-based service
7
technologies
Focused
Areas
④ State-led Technologies
⑤ National issues-related technologies
⑥ Global issues-related technologies
⑦ Basic & convergent technologies
Performance
① World-class human resources
② Basic & fundamental research
③ SMEs’ innovation
④ S&T globalization
⑤ Regional innovation
⑥ S&T infrastructure
⑦ S&T culture
* SMEs : Small-and Medium-sized
Enterprises
Become one of 7 major S&T powers in the world
7
R&D – Concentrate on 7 major technology areas
 We will concentrate on the development of 90 technologies
in the 7 major technology areas
Area(# of tech.)
Technology (partly shown)
1. Key Industrial Tech. (12)
• Environment-friendly automotive Technology
• Intelligent Production System Technology
2. Emerging Industrial Tech. (20)
• Cancer diagnosis and treatment Technology
• Medical apparatus development Technology
3. Knowledge-based Service Tech.(3)
• Converging Contents and Knowledge Service Technology
• Advanced Logistics Technology
4. State-led Tech.(20)
• Satellite Development Technology
• Super-long Bridge Construction Technology
5. National Issues- related Tech.(10)
• Immune Disease and Infectious Disease Response
Technology
• Insect Pest and Disease Prevention and Control Technology
6. Global Issues-related Tech.(18)
• Next-Generation Fuel Cells & Energy Storage and
Conversion Technology
• New and Renewable Energy Technology
7. Basic & Convergent Tech.(7)
• Drug Delivery Technology
• Nano-based Functional Materials Technology
8
Goals – Become one of 7 major S&T powers in the world
 Output index
9
Tech. Foresight as a STI Policy Instrument
 Technology Foresight is utilized to inform on-going decision-making through
the better understanding of advances in S&T and its interaction with the
future society, in long term perspectives
Technology Foresight
Trends
Challenges
(under Korean context)
Society
Fast ageing society
Technology
Globalization &
Newly rising economy
Economy
Ecology
Rapidly changing
business & tech. env
Politics
Climate Changes.
Value
Wild Cards
Issues
Fresh
Water
Security
Meet Energy
Demand
New
Business
Basic
Research
STI Policy/Strategy
Formulation
- Design Innovative
S&T System
- Identify Strategic
Research Area
• key technologies
Enhancing
S&T
Competitiveness
North Korea
10
Contents
Korean STI Development and Achievement
Korean S&T Plans and Policies
Korean Technology Foresight
Linking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases
Lessons Learned
11
Chronology of Technology Foresight Activities
12
Tech. Foresight Activities and STEPI Capability
 Technology Foresight Activities in Korea (partly shown)
Year
Ministry
Theme
Time Horizon
Major Method
2030
Delphi
Ubiquitous Korea
+15 yrs
Panel
Foresight for Information Technology
2006
Ministry of Information and
Communication
2006
Ministry of Health and Welfare
Future Trends in Health care and Life
Science
+15 yrs
Delphi
2006
Ministry of Environment
Future Trends in Environmental
Technology
+15 yrs
Environmental
Scanning Delphi
2007
Ministry of Commerce, Industry and
Energy (MOCIE)
Industrial Technology
2030
Panel
Major 5 IT area
(SW/Platform/Network/Terminal/
convergence)
2020
Delphi
2030 IT Convergence Technology
2030
Delphi
2008-09 Ministry of Knowledge Economy
2010
Ministry of Knowledge Economy
 Technology Foresight Research in STEPI
 Main facilitator of the 1st(1993) and 2nd(1998) Korean TF
 Key partner institute for the 3rd (2003) and 4th (2010) Korean TF
 Providing TF tutorial for the developing countries through ART and TAP since 2001
 Currently (in 2011)
– Carrying out theme-based TFs in energy and environment area
– Dissemination the foresight knowledge through ‘Future Horizon’(quarterly magazine) and ‘STEPI
Foresight newsletter’(bi-weekly)
13
4th Korean S&T Foresight : Framework
 Identification of future technology alternatives
 Technology Solution and its realization timing (Delphi Survey)
 Future Scenario and Strategic Policy Options
* courtesy of KISTEP
14
Contents
Korean STI Development and Achievement
Korean S&T Plans and Policies
Korean Technology Foresight
Linking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases
Lessons Learned
15
From Foresight to STI Policy : Green Technology
Results of Forward
Looking Activity
The 2nd & 3rd Tech Foresight
S&T Vision 2040
National Vision 2030
Industry Vision 2030
Green Growth Vision etc.
Megatrend
Limited natural
resource
Shortage of
clean water
Other Future Reports
OECD
World Resource Institute
EU Foresight Report
Stern Review(UK)
IEA, etc.
Low carbon
society
High energy
demand
- Strengthen national competiveness through proactive measures for future energy &
environment challenges
Implication
- Upgrade national innovation system for sustainable growth
- Nurture new economic growth engines in energy and environment industry through
advances in Future science and technology
New and Emerging Technologies in Energy and Environment Area
16
Green Technology(GT) Strategy in Korea
 Main Contents of GT R&D Master Plan by NSTC
Direction for Investment into GT Development
Increase of GT R&D Investment
• Double R&D expenditure by ’12
• Increase of Basic R&D to 35%
27 GTs for focused development
• Selection of Key GTs based on
growth and green impacts
Strategy for GT Development
Convergence
Increase of
Make existing
Enlarging GT
Green Tech
Basic R&D
Industries green
R&D Infra
Source : GT R&D Master Plan, 2009. 1. 13
17
From Foresight to STI Policy : Information Tech.
Forward looking Activity in
Korea
The 2nd & 3rd Tech Foresight
S&T Vision 2040
National Vision 2030
IT TF 2020 (2007)
IT Convergence TF 2030(2011)
Megatrends
Implication
Convergence
Virtualization
Other Future Reports
Each Country’s TF results(USA , EU
Framework etc.)
Gartner, IBM, Nielson,
Economist, wired, IFTF etc.
All things
Connected
Smart
- Maintain current competiveness in IT Manufacturing but it needs to
widen IT value chain to Service and Contents
- Focusing on convergence with other industries
- Promote mass creativity based on IT Solution
New and Emerging Technologies in Information Technology Area
18
New IT Strategy
Advancement of Industrial Structure
And Solution of Social Problems
Vision
Objectives
1. IT Industry
Convergent with
other Industries
• Convergence of IT & other
industries
- Creation of High AddedValue and Improvement of
Productivity
IT + Service Industry
Converged
Product
Embedded
SW
2. IT Industry solving
Economic & Social
Problems
• Construction of Industrial
3. IT Industry
Advancing Higher
• Consolidation of Cooperation
Basis for High Oil Prices &
among Enterprises and
Aging Phenomenon
Enhancement of Components
& SW Competitiveness
Green IT(Environmentfriendly/Energy)
LED
Industry
IT Converged Processor
Source : Ministry of Knowledge Economy(2008)
“New IT Strategy”
Life + IT
Health Bio + IT
Network/ Wireless Comm.
Semiconductor/Display
IT Components & SW
Industry
19
Contents
Korean STI Development and Achievement
Korean S&T Plans and Policies
Korean Technology Foresight
Linking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases
Lessons Learned
20
Lessons Learned (1/2)
Increasing Importance and success of Tech. Foresight in Korean STI
 key instrument for STI policy/strategy formulation
by addressing long-term future challenges and societal issues
<National strategic technology selection procedures: 18 years of experiences>
→ Implemented into 5yr National S&T Basic Plan
→ Priority setting for strategic research area : 7 areas/90 technologies
→ Sector-based STI strategy and success: GT, IT (LCD, LED, IT Service)
 key linkage in fusion and convergence technology paradigm
→ it helps to build new networks and linkages across fields
→ Facilitate the adoption of inter-disciplinary thinking over long term horizon
21
Lessons Learned (2/2)
Implication for Emerging Economy for Adopting Tech. Foresight
 Strategic technology selection and focused investment
 Essential for emerging economy’s S&T development with scarce resources
both in Human capital and S&T infra,
 Based on Korea’s experience, it is highly recommended to adopt strategic
tech. selection procedure with tech. foresight for effective national STI
policy/strategy formulation
 Build-up national champions in strategic target S&T areas
 Along with global fusion and convergence technology paradigm shifts, strategic
national target S&T areas should be raised up as national champions in
cooperation of domestic indigenous enterprises.
22
Thank you !!