Transcript Polish economy between transition and knowledge based growth

Stanisław Kubielas
Warsaw University
Strategic RTD policy for
regional catching up in the
ERA
“Building the future in an enlarged and more integrated Europe”
the Trentino Foresight Exercise as a contribution to the European Research Area
8^ Provincial R&D Institutional Conference
Trento, 6. October 2003
Barcelona Target and the Era in an Enlarged
Europe
Further falling behind
Increasing regional divergence
Dilemma – concentrate or diffuse RTD
effort in the Era (duplication vs returns?)
Supply or demand forces at play?
(Creating demand – absorption)
Spatial and temporal clustering of innovations
– principle of insularity
 Because - not in spite of - the lack of correlation
between innovations;
 Barriers to diffusion, limited transmissibility
 Low spillover, clustering, time and place
specificity of technical know-how
 Rationale for regional RTD policy – silicon chips
or potato chips?
 Focus on microeconomic environment, not too
aggregated, support regions rather than countries
Conditions for diffusion crucial to regional catchup
 Transmissibility – dissemination policies
 Capacity to absorb – infrastructure, education and
training
 Matching demand for innovations with R&D
supply push
 Demand factor of special relevance for accession
countries
Barcelona objective can not be viewed purely as a supply
push of diverting more resources to R&D. Any supply
push has to be coupled with equal efforts to generate a
demand pull for such R&D.
Solow paradox of decreasing returns to R&D for
countries close to world technological frontier might be
repeated in catching up countries with R&D effort not
matched by corresponding increases of demand for that
new technology.
The indirect cost of the Barcelona objective – that of
creating the absorption framework conditions – might
be much higher than raising R&D by 1%.
Multi-layer strategic RTD policy
– ERA, nations, regions
 Overcome fragmentation, duplication, scale effects,
concentration
 Adjustment of research priorities (easy in absence of
priorities)
 Creating supranational linkages/networking, support for
infrastructure
 RTD for innovative or absorptive capacities
 Regional differences: mission vs dissemination oriented
policies
 Regional specificity of innovation systems – open method
of coordination instead of harmonization since Lisbon
 Crowding out (revenue trap) or crowding in
(additionality)?
 Mobility of researchers – a way to spillover
Use of modern tools for regional
strategic intelligence
 Identify comparative advantage – benchmarking
(SWOT, taxonomy)
 Identify demand for R&D and innovations –
foresight
 Setting local priorities – evaluation, technology
assessment
 Analytical search for priorities (not voting) as
against available competences
Conditions for regional strategic intelligence to
emerge
 Awareness of common (encompassing) interest
 Relative autonomy of regions – moderate level of
centralisation
 Threshold level of funding – reasonable
management costs
 Size and relative integrity of the region
Experience from an accession country - Poland
 Ample evidence of demand pull mechanism (however insufficient)
 Inverse relationship between GERD/GDP and GDP growth (Solow
paradox)
 Great challenge – to match RTD supply and demand at the micro level
 Need to identify demand for innovations (both in enterprises and local
communities)
 Important step to couple structural funds with foresight (obligatory?)
 Structural funds to realign domestic to foreign technology systems
 Strategy for less advanced to grow: coupling traditional products with
inputs of advanced technology; no need to be technology leader to grow
 Twining, foreign consultancy, pooling of EU experts, aid from EU funds
 University as a champion for regional development in poorly developed
infrastructure
Debated issues - suitability of modern tools
 Performance monitoring trap – procedures vs
essentials (Columbus syndrome)
 Foresight for advanced, imitation for less
advanced regions, Poland A, B, C
 Benchmarking: Barcelona target and equilibrium
level of R&D (Warsaw contra the provinces)
 Foresight or capabilities of system adaptation
(abstract science, high culture, human capital)
Major examples of emerging regional
strategic intelligence
 Warsaw district – strategic development plan
 Motorway A4 (agreement of four voivodships) –
silicon valley
 Association Aircraft Valley in South-East Poland
 Integrated Operational Programme for Regional
Development
 Pre-accession programme: Improving institutional
cohesion for innovativeness (consultancy of
MERIT).