Transcript Document

ASSOCHAM Conference:
“Calamities: Nature or Human Action? Challenges and
Responsibilities”. 5 March 2014, New Delhi.
UK Foresight Programme - Overview
Professor Sandy Thomas
Head of the UK Foresight Programme
Foresight Programme
“Helps make decisions today that are resilient to
the future”
1. Foresight Projects: major studies looking at key
issues 10 - 100 years in the future
where science and technology are the main drivers
for change, or offer key solutions
2. Horizon Scanning / Policy Futures Projects: small
projects aiming to answer specific policy questions
3. Foresight Toolkits and Networks: share best
practice within and across government
Foresight reports
Cyber
Trust
Flooding
2004
Brain
Science
Intelligent
Infrastructure
2005
Global Food
Land Use
2011
2010
Computer
Trading
Migration
2012
Infectious
Diseases
2006
Mental
Capital
2009
Obesity
2008
2007
Identity
Disasters
2013
Five Challenges
A
Balancing future demand and
supply sustainably
B
Addressing the threat of future
volatility in the food system
C
Ending Hunger
D
Meeting the challenges of a low
emissions world
Maintaining biodiversity and
E ecosystem services while feeding
E
the world
Food system contributes to climate change
•
10-12% GHG
emissions
•
30% including land
conversion
•
CH4 from ruminants
and irrigated rice
•
N2O from fertilisers
•
In all cases climate
change makes
ending hunger more
difficult
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the
UK food supply chain, 2007
Source: Defra statistics.
Include in climate change
negotiations
Reducing Risks of Future Disasters
(2012)
This framework is used in many sectors
for addressing risk:
2
1.Identify risk
2.Decide how to respond to
risk
3.Act to address risk
1
3
4.Monitor outcomes
For disaster risk, science plays an
important role at each stage
4
RRFD’s key messages
• More people are at risk than ever from natural hazards, particularly in
developing countries. This number will rise over the next 30 years.
• The use of science to reduce the effects of future natural hazards such
as floods, droughts and earthquakes must be stepped up and adopted
more widely.
Source: UNICEF 2012
• Emergency response is vital but it’s important to ask whether more can
be done to anticipate these events and limit their impacts, saving lives and
livelihoods.
Source: CERN
• Choosing to deploy resources for disaster reduction, but science has the
potential to help make these decisions.
• It tells us why disasters happen, where many of the risks like and for
many disaster when they will occur.
• So disaster and death are not the inevitable consequence of greater
exposure to hazards. Impacts can and should be stabilised.
Migration and Global Environmental Change
Nature 2011, Vol. 478
Key Messages
•Trapped populations
•Movement towards environmental
risk
•Migration as adaptation
•Action required now
Flooding and Coastal Defence
National
Enterprise
Local
Stewardship
Scenario analysis
By 2080 BAU leads to
increased risk in all
scenarios:
Up to 20-fold increase in
economic damages to
£20 billion p.a.;
environmental
degradation; and
increased social
vulnerability
2002
World
Markets
Global
Sustainability
How has “Future Flooding” impacted decision making?
Quantitative and qualitative modelling coupled with scenario analysis,
map future risks and the impact of response measures.
By combining response measures, future risk can be reduced to
acceptable levels.
Impact
FF significantly informs:
• Increased government spend on
flood defence;
• England’s 20-year strategy for
flood risk management;
• Recommendations and action in
response to UK 2007 flood events;
• Legislation – Flood and Water
Management Act 2010; and
• Major infrastructure planning – eg
Thames Estuary 2100 project
“Business as usual”
leads to unsustainable
risk
2080
Response portfolio
reduces risk to
acceptable levels
How Foresight achieves impact
Early and sustained
stakeholder management
•High quality analysis
•Innovation throughout
•Project scope and
relevance
•Timing
•Review
Recent and ongoing projects
Future of Manufacturing (2013)
Looking ahead to 2050 - a new era for
sustainable manufacturing
The Future of Cities
(early findings - late 2014)
ASSOCHAM Conference:
“Calamities: Nature or Human Action? Challenges and
Responsibilities”. 5 March 2014, New Delhi.
UK Foresight Programme - Overview
Professor Sandy Thomas
Head of the UK Foresight Programme