Transcript Aitken28jan02 - Interaction Design Institute Ivrea

Designing the Future
Design for Future Needs
28th January 2002
at Design Council
Stephen Aitken
Foresight Co-ordinator for London
07866 361233
[email protected]
My objectives tonight
• Provide some challenging questions for
discussion – provocative and sceptical
• Outline the Foresight Programme in UK and
advertise Young Foresight.
My job - take the Foresight findings to business
(including designers) and academe in London
History and Future of UK Foresight
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1995 -15 Panels & Delphi survey
1999 -13 panels and reports
2001 - Toolkit and trained facilitators
2002 on - a few rolling focused research programmes
2003 - Web communities and real time foresight (I hope)
Foresight in Europe, USA, Japan,..
13 Foresight panels and reports
• Ageing population
• Crime prevention
• Manufacturing 2020
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Materials
Chemicals
Defence, Aerospace & Systems
Retail & Consumer Services
Financial Services
Information, Communications & Media
Built Environment and transport
Energy & Natural Environment
Healthcare
Food Chain and Crops for Industry
All these have relevant information for designers
Designers should use Foresight,
should Foresight use designers?
• Crime prevention – Cracking crime thro’ design (DC)
• Ageing population – Living Longer (DC)
• Were designers involved in 13 Panels and
task forces
– Very few – < 1% of members
UK Foresight has not really used designers,
But has it used design thinking and processes?
Crime prevention - used design thinking
• Products CRAVED – Concealable, Removable,
Available, Valuable, Enjoyable, Disposable.
• Electronic services EVADED – Enduring, Valuable,
Available, Distributable, Easy to use, Desirable.
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Focus science and technology on crime reduction
Crime costs £50bn per annum
>100 people on panel, only one designer (Alison Huxley DC)
Design Council “Cracking Crime through Design”
Foresight workshops for SMEs
• To develop new Visions, goals, strategies and
action plans
• Uses toolkit
– visioning, lifecycles, goals, capabilities, SWOT, STEEP,
brainstorming, alternatives, force field, contingency
• One or two day facilitated workshop
Does not get to the level of design
The majority of today’s SMEs will not exist in 2016, and the
majority that will exist in 2010 do not exist today
Young Foresight (an advert)
• Aimed at 14 yr olds doing Design & Technology
at school
• Design something for the future – no constraints
• Just launched 2001
• Needs mentors from industry – designers (could
add CAD as well)!
Innovation process involves all functions
“The successful exploitation of new ideas”
Strategy
policy
R&D
Marketing
Design
Suppliers
Production
Ideas from anywhere
Sales
- but incremental investment process
Customers
Working with other disciplines
- Marketing to Design Process
Marketing
• Segment definition
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Industry, geography, size
Current end use
Proposed end use
Project specification
Frequency of purchase & use
Buyer and user identification
Design
design
processes
• Marketing strategy
– Product, price, promotion,
distribution
– Perceptual maps, efficiency
frontiers
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Questions
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How can we get designers (corporate and agency) involved in
using Foresight findings, then designing the future?
What relevant tools and techniques do designers use that
others don’t use for developing scenarios?
Is forecasting function more important than forecasting form?
How should designers work with other disciplines on
foresight?
Scenarios are just possibilities – is it worth investing the extra
time to “design” them? Would design create design concepts,
prototypes or even products?
How far ahead can design usefully take us? 5 yrs? 50 yrs ?
Would design bring the Future closer? Make it safer?
How would we deliver the new design outputs to the wider
markets? What markets? Workshops? Web-shops?
Will / how will adding design help companies and countries
determine their global competitive strategies?