Transcript No Slide Title - Global Environmental Change and Food Systems

GECAFS SCENARIOS
• Need for scenarios
• GECAFS scenario requirements
• Scenario work elsewhere
• Developing GECAFS scenarios
WHEN ARE SCENARIOS NEEDED?
Hi
Forecasts
Hedge
Optimization
INFO
QUAL
Scenarios
Adaptive
Mgt
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Lo
ABILITY TO
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CONTROL OUTCOMES
NEED FOR SCENARIOS:
A GECAFS PERSPECTIVE
• Consider future uncertainty
• Provide story line for key indicators
• Define set of plausible futures (min scen set)
• Interpret “Changing Socio-economic Conditions”
• Blend quantitative & qualitative info
• Provide linkages between GECAFS regional studies
& other scales
• Provide context for GECAFS regional studies
• Provide foundation for linkages across regional studies
GECAFS SCENARIO ATTRIBUTES:
PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT (APR 01)
Scales
Temporal: 1-5 yrs (10 max)
Spatial: regional/national with links to GECAFS projects
Key Variables
Food systems: production, availability, accessibility
Socio-econ: pop., econ performance, tech., inst., policies
Bio-phys: climate, water, land
EXISTING SCENARIOS
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UNEP (real regional data content is increasing)
POLESTAR (global scenario group)
TARGET (Netherlands)
WCRP suite on climate
Millennium Assessment
FAO (water, land, fibre supply, pop’n
Pop’n – Columbia University
Marine – FAO, Int. Mangrove and coral
projects
SELECTED RECENT SCENARIO STUDIES
Global Scenario Group: GSG (SEI)
Time: 2050
Regions: 11
Focus: Environment, poverty reduction, human values
Scenarios:
Conventional worlds (market forces, policy reform)
Barbarization (breakdown, fortress world)
Great Transitions: (eco-communalism, new sustainability)
SELECTED RECENT SCENARIO STUDIES cont’d
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: SRS (IPCC)
Time: 2100
Regions: 4
Focus: Climate change
Scenarios:
A1: Rapid market growth, economic & cultural
globalization
A2: Self-reliance & cultural identity preserved, fragmented
development
B1: Similar to A1 but global solutions for sustainability
B2: Local sustainability solutions to soc-econ & env issues
SELECTED RECENT SCENARIO STUDIES cont’d
MA Proto-scenarios
Time: about +50 yrs Regions: ?
Focus: Derived from GSG, SRES, etc.
Scenarios:
1: Market driven globalization, trade liberalization,
institutional modernization
2: Like 1 but sustaining ecosystems policies in place
3: Developed world: shift to sustainability. Developing
world: Poverty reduction, sustability emphasized
4. Fragmented development: preserve regional econ & local
culture
5. Elites fortress (national or local), poverty outside
SUGGESTIONS FOR DEVELOPING
GECAFS SCENARIOS
• Firm up GECAFS scenario attributes
• Inventory of existing scenarios sets
• Appraise existing scenarios w.r.t. GECAFS scenario
attributes
• Consult with GECAFS regional projects
• Develop GECAFS scenarios report
BUILDING GECAFS SCENARIOS
GECAFS NEEDS
Food production
Food availability
Food accessibility
Population
GDP
Institutions
Climate
Water
Land use
SEI
IPCC MA
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GECAFS SCENARIO ISSUES
• Issues of vulnerability difficult to identify in groups
that do not have income
• Estimate degree of dependence on local natural
resources – most vulnerable group
• Mismatch in scales
• Data on institutions likely to be missing or not well
recorded
• Cultural influences on food demand unrecorded
• Very important to understand the quality of data