Transcript OVERVIEW OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GECAFS PROJECT

OVERVIEW OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF
THE GECAFS
PROJECT
Jaiwante Samsoondar
OVERVIEW OF THE CARIBBEAN
FOOD SYSYEM
•Production of traditional export crops (bananas,
sugar, coffee, cocoa and rice) PRIORITY
•Production of non traditional crops for domestic
and regional consumption (root crops, vegetables
and fruits)
•High input, labor intensive agriculture
•Minimal usage of irrigation techniques, high
dependence on rainfed agriculture
•Agriculture practiced on marginal lands
•Limited livestock production
•Some level of self sufficiency in fish provision
EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
ON THE ENVIRONMENT
•High input agriculture leading to chemical build up in
the soils, eutrophication of rivers, water quality
degradation
•Production on marginal lands, deforestation leading to
high incidences of soil erosion, flash flooding,
sedimentation in rivers
•Micro-climate changes - changing soil pH, soil
microbe interaction etc
•Loss of biodiversity due to mono-cropping production
system
•Increase methane emission by livestock
FOOD PROVISION IN THE
CARIBBEAN
Production
=
f (yield, area)
Availability
=
f (production, distribution)
Access
=
f (availability, socioeconomic potential [e.g.
affordability], & physiological potential
[e.g.nutritional quality])
Provision
=
f (production, availability, access)
FOOD PRODUCTION
Crop production
•traditional export crops (banana, sugar etc)
•domestic/regional production (root crops, vegetables and fruits)
Fisheries
•local consumption and export
Livestock
•large poultry industry
•devloping small ruminant industry
Agro- procecssing
•large scale processing of traditionally exported crops (sugar and rice)
•processing for non traditional exports (fish, fruits and veg, etc)
•cottage industries
FOOD AVAILABILITY
•Revenue generation from exports of traditional crops,
service, tourism, and manufacturing
•High imports of cereals and cereals preparation; meat
and meat preparation; dairy products and eggs; and fruits
and vegetables - Imports are mainly from North American
and European countries
•Increased food availability in the region over the past 25
years due to the influx of cheaper imports
•Domestic production affected by seasonality (dependence
on rainfed agriculture) further increasing dependence on
imports
•Limited agroprocessing in the region
•Lack of structured food storage systems/absence of food
reserves
FOOD ACCESS
•The limiting factor to food access in the
region is the economic and physiological
potential of people to purchase food.
•The urban poor are the ones likely not to
have the purchasing power to access food
•The rural areas have limited purchasing
capacity and nutritional security becomes a
more critical problem to these people
Global Environmental Change
Changes caused or strongly influenced by human activities
•Land cover & soils
•Atmospheric
composition
•Climate variability
& means
•Water availability
& quality
•Nitrogen availability
& cycling
•Biodiversity
•Sea currents &
salinity
•Sea level
FEATURES OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
The IPCC has reported that by the year
2100:
•Rise in global average surface temperature
of 1.4 - 5.8°C relative to 1990
•Rise in sea level by 0.09-0.88m
•Changes in variability, frequency and
intensity of extreme climate events
SYSTEMS THAT CAN LEAD TO
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN THE
CARIBBEAN
•Tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes - intense and high
volume rainfall, strong winds and rough seas
•Tropical waves - spawn tropical storms and hurricanes, potential to
cause intense rainfall and high sea swells
•Inter tropical convergence Zone (ITCZ) - Potential to cause
intense rainfall and often interacts with tropical waves
•Upper level Troughs - results in explosive cloud development and
intense rainfall
•Cold front intrusion - results in rainfall in the eastern Caribbean
during the dry season
•El Niño related droughts
SOME PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
Crops
•reduction in crop yields
•reduced water availability
•salt water intrusion
Livestock
•increased heat stress related
deaths
Fisheries
•habitat degradation
•fluctuations in fish abundance
•changes in upwelling rates
PROGRESS ON
REGIONALISING GCMs
Regional GCMs have grids which are too large for small
islands and as such climates of small islands are being
predicted to change in the same way as the surrounding
oceans
The Climate Studies Group, University of the West Indies,
Mona (CSGM) has a project involving dynamic downscaling
using regional climate models (RSM, MM5 derivatives. This
project is being done in conjunction with the international
research Institute for Climate Prediction and with
MACC/CPACC
REGIONAL POLICY
PRIORITIES
•Food Security
•Higher levels of food self sufficiency
•Increased agricultural productivity
•Increased diversification of agricultural
production, processing and export
•Trade Policy and Competitiveness
•Food Safety
•Rural Employment/ Poverty Alleviation
•Sustainability of the food and agricultural sector
and rural communities
ONGOING WORK ON CLIMATE
CHANGE IN THE REGION
1. Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global
Climate Change (CPACC) which began in April 1997,
and it’s follow-up Caribbean Mainstreaming
Adaptation to Climate Change (CMACC).
2. Development of the Caribbean Community Climate
Change Centre
3. University of the West Indies, Mona
GECAFS PROJECT
DEVELOPMENT
1. GECAFS Caribbean Food Systems “Issue
Identification” Workshop, Trinidad, April 22 –
23 2002; and
2. “Developing a Research Agenda for the
Caribbean Food System to respond to Global
Climate Changes.” Trinidad, 19-20 September,
2002
WHAT MAKES THE GECAFS
PROJECT?
Help develop policy at regional level, based on an
interdisciplinary approach
Clearly identify, and demonstrate end-user
involvement in all stages
Have a clear GEC dimension
Include all 3 GECAFS Themes with a strong design
for “internal” integration
Include capacity development
Identify, build upon and add value to suitable
ongoing regional research (e.g. CPACC, UWI etc)
APRIL WORKSHOP
Purpose:
To identify main policy-related issues for a GECAFS study on
the Caribbean Food System as a key step in developing detailed
research plans
Objectives:
Establish clear priorities for policy-relevant research issues
within the GECAFS framework
Identify principal potential collaborators
Identify research issues that could contribute to existing
and planned regional programmes
Design follow-up meeting and draw-up preliminary invitee
list
APRIL WORKSHOP
(cont’d)
Outcomes:
•Sensitization Caribbean scientists to GECAFS
GECAFS Team to the Caribbean Food System
•Identification of priority policy issues - note that no
policies specific to GEC
•Identified key players and collaborators in assisting
with the development of the GECAFS project
SEPTEMBER WORKSHOP
Purpose:
Review key Climate Change impacts research
and identify critical research topics
SEPTEMBER WORKSHOP (cont’d)
Outcomes:
1.Recognition that GEC was broader than GCC and
that discussions should be held in that context
2. Recognition that the GECAFS project has to
incorporate all three science team and a MULTI
disciplinary approach is needed
3. Development of a project under the GECAFS
principles
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
Charge to working groups:
•.What more do we need to know about biophysical and
socio-economic impacts of GEC on food systems?
•.What are the adaptation possibilities for crops, fish and
livestock to cope with GEC scenarios?
•.What do we need to know about the biophysical and socioeconomic consequences of those adaptations?
Scenarios
•.Climate change and change in variability
•.50 cm sea level rise by 2100
•50% loss of export revenue
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d)
Recognised that work still need to be done on the issue
of climate change. Recommendations made include
the need for better projections of:
Temp trends
Hurricanes and severe storms
ENSO teleconnections and intra-regional variability
Length and timing of Growing season (rainfall)
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d)
The components of the GECAFS project
are:
•.Impacts and vulnerability research
•.Adaptation research/possibilities
•.Consequence research
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d)
Impacts and Vulnerability Research
Questions to be asked are:
-What are we going to eat?
-How are we going to make money?
-How are we going to manage change?
-What is the expected loss in biodiversity?
-What is the expected loss in productivity?
Specific research areas are:
Livestock
Pasture composition and quality, Animal health (Pest & Disease)
Animal productivity
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d)
Arable (crops, veg, fruit)
Yield of Cropping systems, especially pest and disease
Fisheries (shell, fin and fresh water)
Migration (immigration/emigration): distribution, Disease related
to temperature and climate change - induced salinity, Species
composition
Food quality
Nutritional value
Extreme weather events
Disruptive effects of hurricanes and other regional extreme
weather events on food systems
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d)
Adaptation Research/Possibilities
Options available are:
-Sensitisation/retooling
-New commodities
-Change consumption patterns
-Revision of policy and legislation e.g. drought
resistant varieties/breeds
-Increase availability and access to water
-Greater dependence on foreign aid
-Do nothing?
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d)
Specific adaptation research areas are:
Livestock
Use of alternative species (nutritional quality, social
acceptability, environmental suitability), High nutrient-density
pasture (quality)
Improved animal housing using local tech and materials, Pest &
Disease management
Arable
Alternative species and cropping systems (social acceptability,
environment suitability), Water management (conservation,
irrigation & water pricing, grey water)
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d)
Fisheries
Technical adaptation (fishing gears, boat type etc), Social
acceptability of other species, Aquaculture, mariculture
Artificial reefs, Capacity building to exploit the Exclusive
Economic Zones
General Areas
All “agronomic options” need to be underpinned by research on
Policy issues:
Markets, Incentives, Subsidies, Taxes, Trade agreements
Developing local raw materials for agroprocessing (e.g. milk)
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d)
General Areas(cont’d)
•Regional education and information policies using
participatory approaches
•Increase export revenue to be able to buy more food from
outside region
•Tourism (niche marketing)
•Traditional cash crops (banana, sugar)
•Alternative cash crops (livestock, prawns, spices…)
•Strengthening regional trade arrangement and regional
institutions
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d)
Consequences Research
•Financial costs of adaptation: (need money up front): credit
institutions; How to introduce innovative adaptations based on
low financial needs
•Increased marginalisation of vulnerable sections of society (on
e.g. small holder arable growers, seine fishers)
•Coastal Zone Management (e.g. Impacts of Agribusiness runoff
on reefs)
•Impacts of new species and cropping systems on human diet and
environment
•Diversification
•Socio-economic impacts of increasing internal production
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d)
•Local markets, local agroprocessing,
•Changes to Micro climate (hectare level)
•of e.g. draining mangrove swamp for aquaculture)
•Environmental impacts of increasing tourism sector
•waste; marine access and biodiversity; env impact of
alternative commodities opportunities (buff cheese)
•Socio-economic consequences of strengthening regional
institutions
•Loss of independence