Transcript Background, Concepts and Regional Approaches

Climate Change and Food Security
background issues and
an international research response
Professor Diana Liverman
Chair, GECAFS
Environmental Change Institute
University of Oxford
Rising concern about food security…
• Increases in prices of 20%80% since 2000
– Demand (including biofuels)
– Energy costs (input, transport)
– Climate impacts (e.g. drought in
Australia)
• Food reserves declining
• World Food programme call
for extra $500m for food aid to
poor
Climate change impacts on agriculture and
food systems (from IPCC 4AR Chapter 5)
• IPCC 2007 concludes
– climates and ecosystems are already changing as a result
of human activities
– Projected warming of 2 to 4.5 degrees
– Significant impacts on global agriculture and food prices
by 2050
Millions of people are hungry
Many economies rely on agriculture
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical
and economic access to sufficient, safe, and
nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active and healthy life.
(World Food Summit 1996)
... is underpinned by Food Systems and is affected
by global environmental change
“Food System” concept
integrates Food System Activities and Outcomes
Food System ACTIVITIES
Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology, …
Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, …
Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, …
Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:
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Social Welfare
Income
Employment
Wealth
Social capital
Political capital
Human capital
Food Security
FOOD
UTILISATION
• Nutritional Value
• Social Value
• Food Safety
FOOD
ACCESS
• Affordability
• Allocation
• Preference
Environmental
Welfare
• Ecosystem
stocks & flows
• Ecosystem
services
• Access to
natural capital
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange
Ericksen, P. Conceptualizing Food Systems for GEC Research (GEC: 2007)
More than crop yields….
• Understanding the impacts of climate change on food
security means looking at how climate change affects
the whole food system (production, processing,
distribution, consumption) and at more than just amount
of production (quality, cultural value, access)
• The response to climate change (mitigation) can also
affect food security because the food system is a source
of greenhouse gases and because some solutions
compete with food
Food systems are changing…
Food system feature
“traditional” food systems
“modern” food systems
Principal employment in
food sector
In food production
In food processing, packaging
and retail
Supply chain
Short, local
Long with many food miles and
nodes
Typical food consumed
Basic staples
Processed food with a brand
name; more animal products
Purchased food bought
from
Small, local shop or market
Large supermarket chain
Nutritional concern
Under-nutrition
Chronic dietary diseases, obesity
Main source of national
food shocks
Poor rains; production shocks
International price and trade
problems
Main source of household
food shocks
Poor rains; production shocks
Income shocks leading to food
poverty
Major environmental
concerns
Soil degradation, land clearing
Nutrient loading, water demand,
GHG emissions
Ericksen, 2007 (adapted from Maxwell and Slater 2004)
Global Environmental Change
and Food Systems (GECAFS)
An ESSP international research project
in collaboration with
GECAFS Goal
To determine strategies to
cope with the impacts of
Global Environmental Change
(GEC) on food systems and to
assess the environmental and
socioeconomic consequences
of adaptive responses aimed
at improving food security.
GECAFS addresses three
“Fundamental Questions”
• How will GEC affect the vulnerability of food systems in
different regions?
• How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so
as to enhance food security?
• What would be the consequences of adaptation options
for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?
all of interest to:
Policy
Science
Society at large
Developing Interdisciplinary Research
Approaches
to advance science and address policy
I. Conceptual &
methodological
research on generic
topics
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II. Policy-relevant research
at regional-level on
impacts, adaptation and
feedbacks
Food Systems Concepts
Vulnerability Concepts
Scenario Methods
Decision Support Concepts
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based on science and
policy issues identified in
regional projects
based on improved
conceptual understanding
and methods
Indo-Gangetic Plain
Caribbean
Southern Africa
Europe [ESF/COST]
GECAFS Regional Research
objectives
• Improved assessment of the spatial and temporal
vulnerability of food systems to GEC at regional level
• Improved decision support to address stakeholder needs by
helping identify potential policy and technical
interventions for adaptation options to reduce
vulnerability to GEC
analysing potential environmental and socioeconomic
feedbacks from different adaptation options
 Improved food security and natural resource management
from enhanced awareness and decision making
GECAFS Regional Research
methods
• Regional consultations with stakeholders
• Field-based assessment of food systems and vulnerability
to global environmental change
• Decision support for adaptation planning
• Collaboration with international stakeholders
GECAFS Regional Science Plans
 Policy-relevant research at regional-level
 Focus on vulnerability/impacts, adaptation and feedbacks
 Based on improved conceptual understanding and methods
 Innovative research partnerships
GECAFS regional activities
and 23 Commonwealth countries
+ active collaboration with
Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK
Caribbean
Indo-Gangetic Plain
Bangladesh, India, Pakistan
(3)
Antigua and Barbuda,
The Bahamas,
Barbados, Belize,
Dominica, Grenada,
Guyana, Jamaica, St
Kitts and Nevis, St
Lucia, St Vincent and
the Grenadines,
Trinidad and Tobago
(12)
Southern Africa
Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique,
Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia
(8)
GECAFS Regional Research
examples
Climate Change and Food Security in Southern Africa
Adopting a multi-level research approach
Climate Change and Food Security in the IGP
Analysing food system vulnerability
Climate Change and Food Security in the Caribbean
Using scenario analyses for decision support