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Climate Change and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plain Analysing food system vulnerability Pramod Joshi Director National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research DPS Road, New Delhi, India www.ncap.res.in Quotes on poverty and food insecurity Poverty (food insecurity) is the worst kind of violence Mahatma Gandhi If a free society can not help the many who are poor and food insecure, it can not save the few who are rich John F Kennedy Key IGP climate and other GEC issues, food security policy priorities and development goals Indo-Gangetic Plain Issues Key Policy Goals Example Stakeholders • Altered monsoon • Increasing and diversifying ag production • Reducing glacier • State & National ag & env ministries and snow melt • Reducing seasonal ag • National Ag Research Institutes & CGIAR labour migration • Reduced ground • NGOs (NWCF, BUP) water • Improved waterAPN) • GEC Research Institutes (GCISC, management Indo-Gangetic Plain: Strong W – E variations Eastern Region (Zones 4 & 5) • Low productivity – food deficit • Poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and water • High risk of flooding • Chronic poverty Western Region (Zones 1, 2 & 3) • High productivity – food surplus • High investment in infrastructure • Major use of fertilisers and groundwater for irrigation • Irrigation real costs very high Step 1: Identify set of Case Study sites (Districts) that IGP heterogeneity Gujarat, Punjab Pakistan • wheat • high ag inputs & effective institutions • variable water availability • changes in snow/glacier melt • rising GHG emissions Ruhani Basin, Terai Nepal • rice/wheat: low crop yields • out-migration of labour • seasonal flooding • variable water availability Ludihana, Punjab India • rice/wheat • stagnant productivity growth • high ag inputs & effective institutions • variable water availability • groundwater depletion • changes in snow/glacier melt • rising GHG emissions Vaisahali, Bihar India • rice • low infrastructure & investment • low income levels • out migration of labour • little government policy support • seasonal flooding • variable water availability Greater Faridpur Bangladesh • rice • low income levels • institutions failing • drought • seasonal flooding • sea level & salt water intrusion Source: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep. Step 2: Use standardised methods to describe food system determinants in each Case Study Example from Vaishali District, Bihar for 2 of the 9 food system determinants Food System Determinant Social Value Key Factor Characteristics Trend Importance to System Sensitivity to GEC Social bonding/celebrations Very strong Changing Secondary Not known Role of food in kinship High Changing Secondary Not known Esteem from agricultural production/ farmer identity Weakening Decreasing Primary Little Public awareness regarding hygiene Low Improving Primary Not known Presence of pathogens High Not known Primary Yes Changes with seasonality Some effect on food quality Not known Primary Yes Food Safety What determines the vulnerability of the food system to climate change? CLIMATE CHANGE Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats Capacity to cope with &/or recover from GEC FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY and VULNERABILITY SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc. Exposure to GEC Step 3: Systematically analyse food system vulnerability to CC in Case Studies (indicative results : research just started) Food Security determinant (examples) Nutritional value (Food Utilisation): Stress to which determinant is increasingly exposed Irrigation potential in Punjab Overall vulnerability Protein content depends on cultivar & planting date Low due to few improved cultivars or forecasts High due to weak ag and met extension services Insufficient rainfall Agricultural income depends on yields and adequate market Moderate due to some – but limited – options to migrate to find offfarm income Moderate due to social constraints on migration Reduced river flow due to changed glacier melt Production depends on timely irrigation Low due to declining water table and no water pricing options High due to declining water table & flawed institutional arrangements Household incomes in Bihar Production (Food Availability): Current coping capacity Variable onset of monsoon Main protein (pulses) in Terai Affordability (Food Access): Sensitivity to current stress Approach to identifying adaptive capacity Document Current Exposure Climate Science Future Vulnerability Assess Current Adaptive Capacity Assess Future Change Exposure Assess Future Adaptive Capacity From Gopal Joshi, Clean Energy Nepal. After: Desanker and Nassef, 2003; Jones et al.,2002; Kelly and Adger, 2000; Lim 2003) Identify Modification for Future Adaptive Capacity Current Vulnerability Social Change and Process Step 4: Determine food system adaptation options and capacity in Case Studies (future research) Food Security determinant (examples) Nutritional value (Food Utilisation): Stress to which determinant is increasingly exposed Adaptive options, capacity and feedbacks Sensitivity to FUTURE stress (aim) FUTURE vulnerability (aim) Variable onset of monsoon Access to improved cultivars Lower Moderate Insufficient rainfall Risk mitigation through improved technologies & agricultural insurance Lower Low Reduced river flow due to changed glacier melt Resource conservation and frontier technologies Lower Moderate to High Main protein (pulses) in Terai Affordability (Food Access): Household incomes in Bihar Production (Food Availability): Irrigation potential in Punjab Framework needed to improve links between science and policy • How can policies and strategies make best use of science? • How to communicate and with whom? – National level? – Local level? – Research organisations? – Ministries? • How to make the research message compelling, given that conceptual understanding is poor? • How to communicate given challenge of uncertainty? Integrating GECAFS concepts and methods to support decision-making Current Food Systems Assess Vulnerability Identify Adaptation Establish Regional Agenda ? Support DecisionMaking Adapted Food Systems Build Scenarios Analyse Feedbacks Pool resources to combat climate change for peace & prosperity in the world Thank you