Transcript Implementation of ASEAN Open Skies Policy

Aviation Sector and Open Skies
Chris Whittle
IndII Wrap-up Conference
14th June 2011
Aceh to Jayapura
5,000km
5 hrs 40 min
Los Angeles to New York
3,950km
4 hrs 30 min
London to Jeddah
4,730km
5 hrs 25 min
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Major Player On World Aviation Stage
• World’s 17th largest economy with
rapidly growing middle class
• Strong demand growth
• Jakarta largest and fastest growing
airport in ASEAN
• Indonesian airlines increasing fleets
• New capacity planned at main
international airports
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Demand Growth + Forecast (Indonesia)
400
350
Passengers per annum (mn)
300
250
Actual
Forecast
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: Mott MacDonald Forecast
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Domestic Passengers
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
International Passengers
4
Growth of Jakarta
50
45
AAGR: 9.2%
AAGR 5.3%
AAGR 7.9%
AAGR: 1.9%
SINGAPORE
KUALA LUMPUR
(Passengers (mn)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
JAKARTA
Source: ACI
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
BANGKOK
2010
5
Aircraft Orders
250
Total Fleet: 276
Total Fleet: 521
Fleet Size
200
150
100
50
0
2011
Garuda Indonesia
Lion Air
2015
Indonesia Air Asia
Sriwijaya
Wings Air
Merpati
Batavia
Source: ATI Online
6
New Airport Capacity
• Jakarta Airport: Masterplan in progress
• Medan: new airport
• Bali: new international passenger
terminal
• Balikpapan: new international
passenger terminal
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Implementation of ASEAN Open Skies
Policy
• Goal
 A strategy for implementation of regional (ASEAN) Open
Sky policy in 2015 (planned date)
• Objectives
 Accommodate ASEAN Open Sky policy in national aviation
law
 Prepare national aviation industry for regional competition
 Assess the benefits of ASEAN Open Sky policy for Indonesia
• Deliverables
 Road map for the development and implementation of the
ASEAN Open Sky Policy in Indonesia in 2015 (planned date)
 Detail steps to be taken by the “implementers”, including
the government, carriers and airport operators
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Description of Activity Components
Interdependence of the tasks
9
Open Skies Benefits
• Benefits significantly outweigh costs:
 Additional 16.3m international passengers; 99,000 aircraft
movements; 291,000 tonnes of air cargo in 2025
 Baseline impact (2010): 243,000 jobs and GDP IDR 33.7
trillion
 2025: 505,000 jobs and IDR and GDP 117.7 trillion
 Positive net flow of costs and benefits to Indonesian users Net Present Value of IDR 21.9 trillion and Benefit Cost Ratio
of 5.4
• Most benefits accrue to Jakarta and other larger
airports
• Benefits could be greater by extending scope of Open
Skies
• Strong case for a more liberal approach towards the
development of air services with other world regions.
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Other Aviation Projects
• Indonesia Air Traffic Management
Masterplan
 A strategic road map for development of
future Air Traffic Management
requirements
• Bali Airport Development options
 Opportunities can be realised in short
/medium term from optimumuse of
existing terminal and runway
infrastructure.
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Opportunities (1)
• Implementation of Open Skies
• Infrastructure bottlenecks:
– National Airports Masterplan
– Optimise existing terminal and airside
infrastructure (Bali example)
– Upgrade surface access to airports
• Development of human resources
• Align air transport with development of
economic corridors
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Opportunities (2)
• Reduce impact of peripherality
• Airline compliance and conformity
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