Transcript BS2_AirTransportationx

IS THE ASEAN SINGLE AVIATION MARKET
TRULY GOING TO BE SINGLE?
Dr. Alan Khee-Jin Tan
Professor of Aviation Law
Faculty of Law, National University of Singapore
Market Opportunities after Open Skies
•
Intra-ASEAN International Markets up to 2000 nm [Source: Embraer, 2014]
i >200
h 171-200
58
4
Passenger Daily Each Way
Yangon
g 151-170 3
f 131-150
Bangkok
Market
Served?
6
Ho Chi Minh
No
Yes
e 101-130
d 81-100
c 51-80
b 31-50
Phuket
13
5
Kota-Kinabalu
12
Kuala Namu
Kuching
Singapore
17
27
45
24
Number of Markets
Jakarta
Surabaya
Denpesar
ASEAN SINGLE AVIATION MARKET
3rd/4th Freedom: Capital to Capital – note Jakarta now open!
Indonesia – Liberalization Benefits
Source: CARI Lifting the Barriers Report, 2013
Additional GDP
Additional jobs created
Decrease in real air fares
Additional international
passenger traffic attributable
to ASEAN Open Skies
Additional international air
freight traffic attributable to
ASEAN Open Skies
7 trillion Rupiah (US$679 million)
[6% increase from 2010 levels]
32,000
[7% increase from 2010 levels]
2.5% per annum
16.3 million per year by 2025
[24.5% of total additional international
traffic over 2010 levels]
290,000 tonnes per year by 2025
[21.6% of total additional international air
freight traffic over 2010 levels]
3rd/4th Freedom: Any Home Point to Another Point,
including non-capitals; Indonesia and Laos still not parties
5th Freedoms: open too. BUT what if ..… (!)
RGN
KUL
SIN
What’s Missing (for post-2015):
7th freedom?
Cabotage/Domestic/8th/9th? – sensitive!
Community Carrier without restrictions
Technical harmonization? Start with harmonized
(need not be identical) standards and mutual
recognition. E.g. pilot and crew certification,
safety checks and enforcement
ASEAN Airlines with 7th Freedom and Multiple Bases
ASEAN-China: Unlimited 3rd/4th to & from China; plus some 5ths
Compare: Chinese Airlines’ Network to ASEAN!!
ASEAN Airlines’ IDEAL Network to China with 7th Freedom
ASEAN-China 5th Freedoms. Meaningless with secondary cities only
URC
XIY
CGO
CTU
CKG
HHA
KMG
KWL
FOC
NNG
MDL
XMN
LPQ
CNX
DAD
CBU
KOS
BKI
BWN
SIN
LOP
What’s Missing Again (for post-2015):
7th freedom?
Cabotage/Domestic/8th/9th? - sensitive
Community Carrier without restrictions
Technical harmonization? Pilot and crew
certification, safety checks and enforcement