Transcript PowerPoint

Taiwan-Japan Relations
Dr Thomas S. Wilkins
Lecturer in International Security
Centre for International Security Studies
University of Sydney, Australia
Email: [email protected]
Context/introduction
Rising China
 Declining US
 Levelling-out of Japanese/Taiwanese
power


Bilateral relations: ‘unofficial in name
only’ (Jing Sun)
Middle Powers
Middle Power theory to categorise
Taiwan and Japan
 Power/status (GDP/CNP)
 Behaviour ‘Middle Power Diplomacy’
 Possibility for MP ‘concert’?

INTERNAL CONTEXT

Bilateral relations:
Strategic/security issues
2. Economic
3. Democratisation
4. Leadership/domestic constituencies
5. Historical/cultural contacts
1.
EXTERNAL PARTIES

PRC: deep economic interdependence, but
security fears, reservations over nondemocratic system

US: unofficial/actual allies, balance the
power of rising china, but US in long-term
decline? Trapped in GP conflict?

Result: disconnect between econ/strategic
planes create serious dilemmas.
Frameworks for cooperation

New ‘alignment’ systems in C21st
Tacit alignment – continue ‘as is’
 Strategic Partnership?
Consolidate/expand
 Trilateralism: ‘quasi-alliance” with US
 MP ‘concert’: with ROK or others?

Conclusions
Sutter: no room for Taipei to maneouvre,
but BOP/BOT could change this in
future
 Other options: SP?
