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Bilateral Aid Review
March 2011
Slide 1
Contents
- Objectives of the review
- The review process and methodology
- Summary of key outcomes
- Questions
Slide 2
The aim of the review
1. Identify a clear rationale for DFID country allocations and establish: countries
in which we should retain and increase DFID presence, programmes and
offices which we should close and graduation strategies when closing.
2. Establish which results we should prioritise in each country and how to factor
in performance to aid allocations.
3. Establish levels of spending for each country for 2011/12-2014/15, including
where to potentially scale up investment to achieve DFID’s objectives.
4. Set out clear strategic choices for the delivery mechanisms for bilateral aid.
5. Provide guidance on preparation of country Operational Plans.
Slide 3
The bilateral aid review process:
Footprint: need, effectiveness, DoL
Offers: Results, Market for Ideas, Theory of Change
Peer Review / Scrutiny Panel: Innovation, Girls & Women, VFM
Ministerial drill downs: build on analysis & aggregation, offers likely to be taken up
Allocation Process: top down constraints; BAR/MAR and Pillar trade offs; Challenge funds
Operational plan: translating concept notes into a credible, resourced operational promise
Slide 4
Our revised bilateral programme:
Between now and 2016 UK bilateral programmes in the
following countries will come to an end:
Angola, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Cambodia, China,
Gambia, Indonesia, Iraq, Kosovo, Lesotho, Moldova, Niger,
Russia, Serbia and Vietnam.
Slide 5
Our revised bilateral programme:
We will concentrate our resources and impact in 27 countries:
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burma, Democratic Republic of
Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia,
Malawi, Mozambique, Nepal, Nigeria, Occupied Palestinian
Territories, Pakistan, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South
Africa, Sudan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Uganda, Yemen, Zambia
and Zimbabwe.
Slide 6
Results Offers in each strategic priority:
• Wealth creation: helping people prosper for
themselves
• Poverty and
Vulnerability: through
tackling hunger,
malnutrition and helping
people break out of the
cycle of poverty
Slide 7
Results Offers in each strategic priority
• Education: harnessing the transformative power of
education
• Health: saving lives and
preventing illness by
focusing in areas like:
maternal health,
vaccinations, HIV,
malaria, TB and polio
Slide 8
Results Offers in each strategic priority:
• Providing access to clean water and sanitation
• Helping to make countries
safer, fairer and free from
conflict, through work on
security, governance and
conflict prevention
• Working with other UK
government departments to
combat climate change
Slide 9
Slide 10
Climate
Change
MDG:
Humanitarian
MDG: Water
and
Sanitation
MDG:
Poverty,
Vulnerability,
Hunger
MDG:
Education
MDG: Health
Governance
and Security
Wealth
Creation
Spend in £m
Uptake of results offers by strategic priority
Ministers Take up
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Uptake by strategic priority
Delivering MDGs
Wealth Creation
Governance&Security
Climate Change
Slide 11
Wealth Creation
• Private sector provides 90% of
jobs in most developing countries
• Trade An increase in the share of
trade in GDP from 20 to 40% over
a decade raises real GDP per
capita by 10%
• Macro-economic stability:
Inflation rates above 11% depress
growth.
Slide 12
•
•
•
Political economy/governance:
State legitimacy in Africa is worth
up to 2.5% annual GDP growth.
Savings and investment:
investment rates of 25% of GDP
or more are needed.
Women’s economic
participation.
Sustainable Wealth Creation ?
ACRONYMS !
• IGC
• AFTI
• ICF
• ICF
• CUTS
• FIAS
• M-PESA
• M- KESHO
Slide 13
CHALLENGES
• Climate
• Resource scarcity
• Population
What changes do we need ?
Slide 14
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b
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Af
ric
a
Li
be
ria
Spend in £m
Total agreed bilateral allocations 2011-15:
Africa
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Slide 15
Total agreed bilateral allocations 2011-15:
Asia and other countries
1600
1400
Spend in £m
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Slide 16
eg
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In
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Pa
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st
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0
How did we do?
Spend Profile of DFID's Bilateral Country ODA based on MAR 'need-effectiveness' model
100
4th quartile
90
As % of Total Country-Based Bilateral ODA
80
3rd Quartile
70
2nd Quartile
60
50
Rest of 1st Quartile
40
Next 5% Most need Effective
countries
30
Top 5% Most need Effective
countries
20
10
1st Quartile
0
2004-09
Slide 17
2011-15 (BAR)