Transcript Aleksander Fedorov

Climate change mitigation
EU and Russia
Alexander Fedorov
Centre for Environmental Initiatives, St.Petersburg
Alexey Kokorin
WWF-Russia, Moscow
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
1
Temperature
variations in
the 20th
century
Russia
N. Hemisphere
World
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
2
Number of dangerous weather events in Russia
1991 - 2005
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
3
Number of dangerous weather events in Russia
1991 - 2005
70% Warm period
(Apr. – Oct.)
30% Cold period
(Nov. – March)
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
4
Types of dangerous weather events in Russia
1991 – 2005, %
1 – wind storms; 2 – snow storms; 3 – showers, thunderstorms, hails;
4 – frosts, heats; 5 – floods; 6 – avalanches, mudflows;
7 – draughts; 8 – fires; 9 – others.
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
5
Russian public and stakeholders’
opinions on climate change
3 years ago
now
Climate change takes place
50%
90%
Climate Change is negative
for Russia
30%
70%
Reason of current climate change
is anthropogenic GHG emission
10%
30%
Urgent actions are necessary
5%
10%
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
6
GHG emissions in Russia in 1990-2004
Выбросы,
-экв
млн.т.
СО22-eq.
Mt CO
Emissions,
3500
Waste
3000
2500
Industry
2000
Agriculture
1500
1000
1990
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Годы
Years
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
Energy
7
GDP power intensity in 5 regions of the world
Energy consumption for production of 1 M€ GDP (toe, 2003)
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
8
The Russian GDP Power Intensity
GDP and Use of Energy and Heat, % of 1990
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
GDP
Energy use
Clear difference between GDP and GHG emissions trends
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
9
Russian MEDT post-2012 scenario
(Russian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade)
MEDT Fast Development Scenario
GHG emisisons in 1990-2015 Mt СО2-eq
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2015: -22% of 1990; 2020: -17% of 1990
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
10
Official view of MEDT
www.economy.gov.ru
● Russia shares global responsibility for increase of GHG
emissions, and aims to reach the UNFCCC goals, based on the
necessity of limiting technogenic emissions and increase of
absorption by GHG absorbers in accordance with its
economic opportunities and principles of sustainable
development.
● Presently, Russia decreases the GDP power intensity by 4
percent per year and more.
● Analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Schemes (EU ETS)
shows that in the foreseeable future (2013 – 2017) Russian
business will not be able to use this system in a considerable
scope.
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
11
Progress in Kyoto Protocol
implementation in Russia
● Progress in GHG Inventory and Registry
Problems:
● Absence of sense of urgency
● Politicians, stakeholders and public (70%) are not sure that
current climate change is anthropogenic
● Suspending of Joint Implementation (JI) projects (30-50
projects) due to absence of progress in domestic JI
Regulation
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
12
Consequences of climate change
in the Baltic Sea Region
● Neva River run-off increasing: 10% by 2015
=> decreasing salinity in the Baltic Sea
● Ice weakening
=> damage to grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and
ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica)
● Number of dangerous weather events growing:
~ 7% per year (almost twice by 2015)
● Winds pressure on power transmission line increasing:
~ 20% in 10 years
● Ground waters rising
=> damage to buildings & agriculture
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
13
Proposal 1
Foster Joint Implementation projects
EU:
● Work also with other actors
in Russia, including NGOs,
additionally to governmental
institutions, to find partners
for JIPs in Russia, to
considerably broaden the
choice
Russia:
● Put down barriers to JIPs,
incl.:
- simplify JIPs registration to
‘one window’ procedures
- low down the threshold limit
for a project
- etc.
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
14
Proposal 2
Foster Energy Efficiency and Renewables
EU:
Russia:
● Share/transfer experience
● Adopt relevant laws
● Co-operate with NGOs
● Adopt relevant state
programmes
● Co-operate with NGOs
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
15
Thank you for your attention!
Climate change mitigation
EU and Russia
Alexander Fedorov
Centre for Environmental Initiatives, St.Petersburg
[email protected]
Alexey Kokorin
WWF-Russia, Moscow
[email protected]
EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006
16