Transcript Plantation agriculture of Sri Lanka - START

ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF AND
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE
COCONUT AND TEA SECTORS IN SRI LANKA
presented by
Dr Janaka Ratnasiri
Chairman, National Committee of IGBP
Principal Investigator, AIACC Project, AS 12
Participating Organizations
•
•
•
•
Coconut Research Institute
Tea Research Institute
Meteorology Department
Natural Resources Management
Services
Managed by
Sri Lanka Association for the
Advancement of Science
STUDY TEAM
Dr. A.Anadacoomaraswamy
Plant Physiologist
Tea Research Institute
Dr M A Wijeratne
Senior Agronomist
Tea Research Institute
Ms Asoka Jayakody
Agri. Economist
Tea Research Institute
Dr Sanathanie Ranasinghe
Plant Physiologist
Coconut Res. Institute
Dr Sarath Peiris
Pr. Biometrician
Coconut Res. Institute
Dr Neil Fernando
Agri. Economist
Coconut Res. Institute
Dr Senaka Basnayake
Meteorologist
Meteorology Dept.
Dr Lareef Zubair
Climate Application
Scientist
IRICP, Columbia Univ.
Dr Janaka Ratnasiri (PI)
Atmos. Physicist
SLAAS
INTRODUCTION
• The coconut and tea sectors play a vital role in the economies of many
Asian countries.
• In Sri Lanka, these two sectors contribute 15% of the total export revenue to
the country.
• A significant portion of the population (more than one million people or 5% of
the population) is directly employed in these plantations.
• Being rain-fed plantation crops, the production of coconut and tea is greatly
influenced by the weather.
• The variations in temperature and rainfall pattern have been identified as the
most influential climatic factors affecting productivity.
• Dry weather conditions set severe limitations to growth and yield in both
these crops.
• With the anticipated climate change, both these crops will be subject to
severe stress resulting in low yields.
• The country’s economy as well as the earnings of those who are dependent
on these plantations and associated industries, will be greatly affected.
Tea Plantations in Sri Lanka
ITEM
TOTAL EXTENT
EXTENT AS A PC OF TOTAL LAND
REPLANTING
NEW PLANTING
QUANTITY UNIT
180,000 ha
2.77 %
1,085 ha
263 ha
TOTAL PRODUCTION
306,000 tonnes
High Grown
84,000 tonnes
Medium Grown
56,000 tonnes
Low Grown
166,000 tonnes
PRODUCTION EXPORTED
288,000 tonnes
DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
18,000 tonnes
COST OF PRODUCTION
EXPORT EARNINGS
VALUE ADDED AS A PC OF GDP
110 Rs/kg
700,000,000 US$
2.6 %
Global Tea Production 2001
Country
China
India
Sri Lanka
Kenya
Indonesia
Other
Total
Extent
kha
1,141
509
189
132
161
487
2,619
%
44
19
7
5
6
19
100
Production
kt
695
854
295
294
169
705
3,012
%
23
28
10
10
6
23
100
COCONUT PLANTATIONS
ITEM
TOTAL EXTENT
QUANTITY Units
439,000 ha
EXTENT AS A PC OF TOTAL LAND
6.75 %
REPLANTING
714 ha
NEW PLANTING
834 ha
TOTAL NUT PRODUCTION
3,055 million
DESSICATED COCONUT
89,000 tonnes
COCONUT OIL
44,000 tonnes
COPRA
14,500 tonnes
FRESH NUTS EXPORTED
DOMESTIC NUT CONSUMPTION
COST OF PRODUCTION
EXPORT EARNINGS
VALUE ADDED AS A PC OF GDP
29 million
1,832 million
3.27 Rs/nut
121,000,000 US$
2.2 %
Global Coconut Production 2001
Country
Extent kha
Production
M.nuts
%
%
Indonesia
Philippines
3,691
3,120
31
26
15,160
13,208
27
24
India
1,840
16
12,597
23
Sri Lanka
442
4
2,279
4
Thailand
326
3
1,117
2
Vietnam
165
1
936
2
Malaysia
226
2
563
1
2,035
17
9,977
17
11,845
100
55,837
100
Others
Total
Factors affecting crops
According to previous climatological studies;
 Rainfall
 Temperature
 Evapo-transpiration
 Relative
Humidity
 Solar Radiation
are identified as the major climate variables that
influence the yield when other external factors
(fertility, management, pest & diseases) are nonlimiting
OBJECTIVES
Collect baseline data on the following:
- climate in tea and coconut growing
areas over several past decades
- productivity of tea and coconut over
several past decades separately for
different agro-climatic zones
- socio economic information both from
documented sources and primary
sources.
OBJECTIVES Contd.
• Project the climate change scenarios in the
coconut and tea growing areas based on the
global circulation model results down-scaled to Sri
Lanka.
• Assess the impacts of climate change on
productivity of tea and coconut and socio
economic status of the people within the plantation
sector.
• Identify adaptation options and assess their
feasibility of implementation
OBJECTIVES contd.
• Build capacity of natural and social scientists engaged
in plantation research for undertaking assessment
studies incorporating impacts, vulnerability and
adaptation.
• Train scientists to prepare proposals for seeking funds
in meeting costs of adaptation to adverse effects of
climate change as provided in Article 4 of the UN
Framework
Convention
on
Climate
Change
(UNFCCC, 1992).
WORK PLAN OF STUDY
• The first stage will cover collection of
baseline data of climatic parameters
and production data on coconut and
tea, their analysis and constructing
future scenarios for temperature and
precipitation changes, and future
variations in productivity, economy,
unemployment and national revenue
WORK PLAN Contd.
• The second stage will cover
assessment of impacts, identification
and assessment of adaptation
measures using crop growth models.
These models need initial calibration to
suit local conditions and validated for
current climate conditions. Thereafter
these have to be tested with the climate
change scenarios developed.
Work Plan Contd.
• Integrated Assessment Modelling to be
carried out in two stages
– Building the basic model for climate
scenario development and down scaling
GCM results
– Incorporating crop models and socioeconomic models for impact and
adaptation assessments
Workplan contd.
• In the third stage, the impacts on the
markets and trade due to changes in
the productivity and the resulting effects
on the planters, the labour force and the
economy in general will be assessed.
WORKPLAN Contd.
• In the fourth stage, adaptation
strategies will be evaluated that will
mitigate the adverse impacts and those
which are most cost effective will be
disseminated among planters. The
project will also include training of
scientists for undertaking adaptive
measures and further research on
assessments
Year 1 Work Plan
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Collect and analyze climatic data
Collect and analyze production and socio-economic data
Correlate production data with climate parameters
Establish climate change scenarios applicable to Sri Lanka
Provide Special Training Workshop on Integrated
Assessment Modelling
Activity
a
b
c
d
e
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.
Project changes in production under no climate change
and climate change scenarios
Calibrate and validate crop model selected
Apply the model for climate scenarios developed
Determine new cropping calendar for coconut
Provide training by a visiting scientist.
Provide training opportunity to a few scientists at IRICP
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Activity
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Assess impacts on production and socio-economic factors.
Identify adaptation strategies and evaluate their cost effectiveness.
Training of scientists to undertake future research on climate change
reports.
Attend meetings where the findings of the assessments were
discussed.
Formulate a set of recommendations for the use of policy makers and
stake-holders.
Prepare the final project report for submission to START.
Activity
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Adaptation Options for Coconut
• Introduce irrigation during droughts
• Contour drains to prevent surface run-offs and
facilitate infiltration
• Mulching the manure circle and apply ground cover
• Organic manuring to increase water holding capacity
• Removal of unproductive lower fronds during droughts
• Develop drought resistant varieties
• Use anti-transpirants to reduce water loss
Adaptation Options for Tea
• Selection of drought resistant varieties (generally low
yielding)
• Introduce agronomical practices such as shade crops
• Soil conservation practices such as mulching and
cover crops
• Chemical spraying to prevent trans-evaporation
• Introduce intercropping with other crops such as
coconut and rubber
• Introduce irrigation during drought periods
EXPECTED OUTPUT
 Report on the climate change scenarios applicable to Sri Lanka
 Report outlining the baseline scenarios on the productivity of tea and
coconut and socio-economic status.
 Report giving the impact of climate change on productivity of tea and
coconut and the extent to which the socio economics of people
directly involved in the each sectors in particular and the country in
general are affected.
 Report outlining the feasible options for adapting to climate change,
including their cost effectiveness and their acceptance by policy
makers and stake holders including planters and traders.
 A team of plantation scientists trained in the integrated assessment on
climate change and in the preparation of proposals for adaptive
measures.
 A set of publications in peer-reviewed journals reporting the findings of
the project.
Stake Holder Activity
• Members of Planters’ Associations, Exporters,
Trade and Officials from the Ministry of Plantations
were invited for the Inception Seminar held in April
2002
• A presentation was made at a meeting held in
May 2002 for the Planters to discuss future
developments in the industry
• All stake holders were invited for the inauguration
of the IAM workshop held in December, 2002
In general, the response has been rather poor,
except in the second
Linking to National Communication
• Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources is
responsible for the 2nd NC preparation
• Ministry has launched a programme under GEF
Enabling Activities Phase II, to support short term
studies on impacts and vulnerability assessment
• PI of the current project is a member of the Steering
Committee of this programme.
• Ministry has endorsed the current project as
contributing to its effort to collect information for the
preparation of the 2nd NC of Sri Lanka
THANK YOU