Transcript Neil Fernando

Socioeconomic Data, Trends and
Scenarios in the Plantation Sector in
Sri Lanka
M T Neil Fernando & A Jayakody
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Economic significance
Research Questions to be Investigated
Approach Adopted for Investigation of
these Questions
Major Problems Encountered or
Anticipated
Solutions for Overcoming Problems
Economic Significance

Plantation sector comprises tea,
coconut and rubber (oil palm,
sugarcane)
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The highest net foreign exchange
earner – 19% of export earnings
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Export earnings = Food import bill
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The biggest employer – 20%
employment in the economy
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Contribution to GDP – 6%
Map of Sri Lanka
showing tea and
coconut growing
area
Tea
Coconut
Research Questions to be
Investigated
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What are the baseline socioeconomic
scenarios without climate change
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Why ? Helps measure how changes
in socioeconomic conditions could
affect the sensitivity of the sector to
climate change
Approach Adopted for
Investigation of these
Questions
Socioeconomic data were collected
from published sources
 Stakeholder survey was conducted
by the Economist (TRI)
 Data trends will be projected for the
future (forecasted using a
decomposition model)
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Develop some economic models that
project the changes in
socioeconomic conditions due to
climate change
Socioeconomic Data Trends
Land use
 Demographic
 Input use
 Kernal products
 Non-kernal products
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Area under Coconut
(Source: Sri Lanka Coconut Statistics)
490
Extent ('000 ha)
470
450
430
410
390
370
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
Year
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
National coconut production 1950-2001
(Source: Sri Lanka Coconut Statistics)
3300
3100
Million nuts
2900
2700
2500
2300
2100
1900
1700
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
Year
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
POPULATION
(Source: Statistical Abstracts)
20
19
Population(Mn)
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
Year
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
Domestic Culinery Consumption of Coconuts
(Source: Sri Lanka Coconut Statistics)
2100
2000
Millionn nuts
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Surplus coconuts for industrial use
1400
y = -6.2022x + 716.8
1000
800
600
400
200
Years
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
0
1970
Million nuts
1200
Fertilizer Use
(Source: Sri Lanka Coconut Statistics)
70000
60000
Fertilizer (MT)
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
Year
1988
1991
1994
1997
Seedlings Issue
(Source: Sri Lanka Coconut Statistics)
3500
Seedlings('000)
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
Year
1988
1991
1994
1997
Cost Of Production
(1 US$ = 97 SLRs, 17.3.2003)
2500
Cost(Rs)/!000nuts
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
Year
1988
1991
1994
1997
Dry basis
330g
49%
Wet basis
6g
1%
Husk
413
g
39%
Water
124g
12%
155g
23%
Shell
177g
17%
182g
27%
Kernel
339
g
32%
673g
Total weight
1053g
Figure 3: Weight distribution of different components in a standard coconut in Sri Lanka
Source: Samarajeewa (1983)
Annual Kernal Production
(Source: Sri Lanka Coconut Statistics)
1800
1600
Million nut eqvivalant
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
Year
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Export of Kernal Products
(Source: Sri Lanka Coconut Statistics)
Million nut eqvivalant
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
Year
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Fiber Exports
120000
100000
Metric Tons
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
Year
1990
1993
1996
1999
Percentage Contribution from Export Earnings of Coconut to Total
Export Earnings
18
16
Percentage
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
y = -0.3428x + 11.401
R2 = 0.6933
0
1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997
Year
Socioeconomic Data &
Trends in Tea Production
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
High Grown Tea
(Upcountry)
High Grown Tea
Year
Extent('000)
Pron.(mn.kg)
100
80
60
40
20
0
High Grown Tea -3
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Over the last 4 decades total
production doesn’t show clear trend.
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Irregular pattern of production is
mainly due to changes in the tea
extent
High Grown Tea -2
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
YPH
Linear (YPH)
Years
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
y = 8.9695x + 907.67
1960
Kg/ha
Productivity of High Grown Tea
High Grown Tea -3
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Productivity shows an upward trend
Sample Data
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Agro-Ecological Regions in the High
Grown Area are –
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WU1,WU2,WU3 , IU1 and IU2
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Historical Data collected from – Tea
Estates in WU1,WU2 and IU2
Tea Production and Rain Fall
Pattern
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There are three scenarios found:
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i)Reduction in No. of Wet Days per Month
and Reduction in Monthly average Tea
production – but no reduction in Monthly RF
WU2
ii)Reduction in Total Monthly RF and Tea
Production but there is increase in No.of
Wet Days – IU 2
Iii)No Change in RF pattern and tea
Production
WU1
Scenario 2- IU2
Monthly Wet days -Decinial Average -IU2
70
80
90
2000
20
15
10
5
Months
ec
D
ov
N
O
ct
Se
p
A
ug
l
Ju
n
Ju
Fe
b
M
ar
A
pr
M
ay
n
0
Ja
No. of wet days
25
Scenario 2- IU2
Rain fall-Decinial Average -IU2
500
400
300
200
100
Se
p
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
A
ug
l
Ju
Fe
b
M
ar
A
pr
M
ay
Ju
n
n
0
Ja
Rain fall (mm)
600
Months
60
70
80
90
2000
Scenario 2- IU2
70
Months
80
90
2000
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
April
March
Feb
Jan
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Decades
Made tea (kg)
Monthly Tea Production - Decinial Average -IU2
Major Problems
Encountered or Anticipated
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No reliable data are available for
land use under coconuts, land
fragmentation rate
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Too simple approaches to be
employed to project the
socioeconomic scenarios in the
absence of climate change
Solutions for Overcoming
Problems
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Have to live with unreliable data
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Explore the appropriate analytical
approaches by means of literature
survey and interactions with fellow
researchers perhaps by working in
their climate laboratories
THANK YOU