Transcript Diagrams to the speech

Table 1. Inflation according to
different measures
Annual percentage change
CPI
UND1X
UNDIM PX
UNDIM PX excl. oil products
UNDINHX
2004
2005
0.4
0.8
-0.8
-1.7
1.6
0.5
0.8
0.2
-1.7
1
Annual average
1995-2004 1995-2004*
1.2
1.6
0.3
0.1
2.2
1.4
1.9
0.6
2.4
* Inflation figures calculated according to the method used up to 31 December
2004.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1. The Riksbank’s forecasts at
different times for underlying inflation
(UND1X) in 2004 and 2005
Annual average
2.0
1.8
1.6
2.0
Forecasts of 2004
Outcome 2004
Forecasts of 2005
Outcome 2005
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
IR 02:4 IR 03:1 IR 03:2 IR 03:3 IR 03:4 IR 04:1 IR 04:2 IR 04:3 IR 04:4 IR 05:1 IR 05:2 IR 05:3 IR 05:4
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Note. Inflation 2004 is calculated according to the method used upRiksbank
to 31.12.2004.
Figure 2. Forecasts at different times for CPI
inflation 2005, compared with other forecasters
Annual average
3.0
The Riksbank
Outcome
Average other forecasters
Highest/ lowest forecast of other forecasters
2.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
2004
2005
Note. Dating according to Consensus Inc. publications.
Sources: Consensus Inc., the Ministry of Finance, LO and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3. Forecasts at different times for GDP
growth 2004, the Riksbank compared with other
analysts
Annual average
5
The Riksbank
Outcome
Average other forecasters
Highest/ lowest forecast of other forecasters
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
2003
2004
Note.Dating according to Consensus Inc. publications.
Sources: Consensus Inc., the Ministry of Finance, LO and Statistics Sweden