Transcript Penningpolitisk uppföljning september 2009

Monetary Policy
Report
October 2009
The recovery will take time
The financial markets are functioning
better…
TED spread, Basis points
500
500
Sweden
450
450
Euro area
400
USA
350
350
Coordinated policy rate
cut
Lending by central banks
300
250
400
Lehman Brothers
300
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Jan-07
Jan-08
Note. The spread is calculated as difference between the three-month interbank
rate and the three-month treasury bill.
Jan-09
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
…but still receiving substantial
government support
Central bank’s balance sheet totals, percent of GDP
30
%
30
%
The Riksbank
25
25
ECB
Federal reserve
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
2007
0
2008
2009
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Office for National Statistics, Statistics Sweden and the respective central banks
Recovery from a low level
GDP level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100
110
110
USA
108
108
Euro area
106
106
Sweden
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
92
90
90
07
08
09
Note. The quarter prior to the recession breaking out in the USA =
100. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
10
11
12
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, SCB and the Riksbank
Confidence increasing
Purchasing managers’ index and confidence indicator for the manufacturing
industry, seasonally-adjusted index and net figures
70
20
60
10
50
0
40
-10
30
-20
20
-30
Purchasing managers’ index (left)
10
-40
Confidence indicator (right)
0
-50
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. Net figures refer to the share of companies who have stated a Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Swedbank
positive development minus those who have stated deterioration.
Fragile base
Retail sale and manufacturing output, index 2005 = 100
130
130
Retail trade
120
120
M anufacturing output
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Unemployment rising
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
14
14
%
%
Unemployment, 16-64 years
Unemployment, 15-74 years
October
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent theSources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years.
Stable underlying inflation
CPI and CPIF, annual percentage change
5
%
5
%
CPI
4
4
CPIF
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Note. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Repo rate path
A forecast – not a promise
Per cent, quarterly averages
%7
7
%
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
6
5
Greater effects of support measures
Confidence strengthened more quickly
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Phasing out of support
measures
Higher productivity
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
-2
10
11
Note. The uncertainty band does not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.
The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90%
12
Source: The Riksbank
The recovery will take
time