Transcript Monetary Policy Report October 2012

Monetary Policy Report
October 2012
Low repo rate stimulates
the Swedish economy
Financial markets fairly calm…
8
8
Spain
Italy
Germany
Sweden
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
08
09
10
11
Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity, per cent
12
Source: Reuters EcoWin
…but there is still a long way to go
Underlying structural problems
 Problems in European banks
 Political decisions remain



At EU level
At national level
Slow recovery in the euro area
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
KIX
BRIC
-4
-4
USA
Euro area
-6
-6
00
03
GDP, annual percentage change
06
09
12
15
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Eurostat, IMF and the Riksbank
Weak demand for Swedish exports
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
Swedish export market
Swedish exports
-20
00
02
-20
04
06
08
10
12
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data. The export market aims to measure demand for imports in the countries to which
Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of 32 countries and covers around 85 per cent of the Swedish export market.
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden
and the Riksbank
Households consuming at a relatively
good pace
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Households' consumption
-2
-2
Mean 1981-
-4
-4
06
Annual percentage change
08
10
12
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Swedish economy slowing down
12
12
September
October
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
-12
-12
-16
-16
08
09
10
GDP, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in
annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
11
12
13
14
15
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Unemployment rising slightly
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
September
5
5
October
4
4
08
09
10
11
Unemployment, per cent of the labour force, aged 15-74,
seasonally-adjusted data
12
13
14
15
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Low but rising inflation
5
5
CPIF
CPI
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
08
09
10
11
12
Annual percentage change. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
13
14
15
Sources: Statistics Sweden
and the Riksbank
Low repo rate stimulates the economy
5
5
September
October
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
08
09
10
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages
11
12
13
14
15
Source: The Riksbank
Forecast, not a promise
6
6
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
5
5
Stronger demand in
Sweden
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Problems in the euro area worsen
-2
-2
08
09
10
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages
11
12
13
14
15
Source: The Riksbank
Low repo rate stimulates
the Swedish economy
Extra
Competition-weighted nominal
exchange rate, TCW and KIX
160
160
TCW
KIX
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Index, 18 November 1992 = 100. TCW and KIX refers to different aggregates of currencies on the basis of trading patterns. KIX weights are
updated regularly and cover a larger group of countries. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.
14
Source: The Riksbank