Transcript Bild 1 - Riksbanken | Sveriges Riksbank

Monetary policy and
the elusive resource
utilisation
May 2009
First Deputy Governor
Svante Öberg
Figure 1. GDP gap
SEK million and percentage deviation from HP-trend respectively,
seasonally-adjusted data
1 000 000
5
GDP (left scale)
HP trend (left scale)
GDP gap (right scale)
900 000
4
800 000
3
700 000
2
600 000
1
500 000
0
400 000
-1
300 000
-2
200 000
-3
100 000
-4
0
-5
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Note. Trend calculated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Broken lines refer to the Riksbank's forecasts.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2. Flexprice gap
Percentage deviation from HP trend and flexprice output
respectively, seasonally-adjusted data
5
5
GDP gap
4
4
Flexprice gap
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Note. Trend calculated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Flexprice gap calculated using the Riksbank’s
macro model RAMSES. Broken lines refer to the Riksbank's forecasts.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3. Employment and unemployment
Per cent, seasonally-adjusted data
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
70
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Employment rate (left scale)
Unemployment ages 16-64 (right scale)
Unemployment ages 15-74 (right scale)
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Note. Broken lines refer to the Riksbank's forecasts.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4. Labour market gaps
Percentage deviation from HP trend, seasonally-adjusted data
5
5
Hours worked gap
4
4
Employment gap
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
80
84
88
92
96
00
04
08
12
Note. Trend calculated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Broken lines refer to the Riksbank's forecasts.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 5. Capacity utilisation in industry
Index and percentage deviation from HP trend respectively,
seasonally-adjusted data
100
5
4
95
3
2
90
1
85
0
-1
80
-2
75
-3
Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation in industry (left scale)
NIER, current capacity utilisation in manufacturing industry (left scale)
GDP gap (right scale)
-4
70
-5
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Note. Trend calculated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Broken lines refer to the Riksbank's forecasts.
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 6. Resource utilisation indicator
Index and percentage deviation from HP trend respectively,
seasonally-adjusted data
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
Resource utilisation indicator
Hours worked gap
Employment gap
GDP gap
-3
-4
-3
-4
-5
-5
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Trend calculated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The standard deviation of the resource utilisation
indicator is normalised to that of the GDP gap. Broken lines refer to the Riksbank's forecasts.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank