Transcript The Swedish Economy and Monetary Policy NBP Warsaw 24 May

The Swedish Economy
and Monetary Policy
NBP Warsaw
24 May 2012
Governor Stefan Ingves
Financial markets fragile
8
8
Spain
Italy
7
7
France
Germany
Sweden
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
08
09
10
11
12
Weak growth in the euro area…
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
The world
-4
-4
USA
Euro area
-6
-6
00
01
02
GDP, annual percentage change
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
…which dampens Swedish exports
Export market and exports
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
Export
BNP
-6
-6
07
08
09
Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate,
seasonally-adjusted data
10
11
12
13
14
15
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Improvement at the start of the year
115
115
105
105
95
95
85
85
Export of goods
Retail trade index
75
75
07
Index, 2007 = 100
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Statistics Sweden
Some positive signs
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
The Economic Tendency
Indicator
Mean
80
80
+/- one standard
deviation
70
70
07
08
09
Index, mean value = 100, standard deviation = 10
10
11
12
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Labour market to deteriorate slightly
over the coming year
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
07
08
09
10
Unemployment, percentage of the labour force,
seasonally-adjusted data
11
12
13
14
15
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Low inflation
5
5
CPIF
CPI
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
07
08
Annual percentage change
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Repo rate to remain low
5
5
February
April
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
07
08
09
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages
10
11
12
13
14
15
Source: The Riksbank
A forecast, not a promise
7
7
90%
75%
50%
Utfall
Prognos
6
5
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
07
08
09
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values
10
11
12
13
14
15
Source: The Riksbank
Household´s debt
200
200
Debt/disposable income
150
150
100
100
50
50
85
90
95
00
Note. The series refers to the Riksbank's own calculations using data from
Statistics Sweden.
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden
and the Riksbank
Sweden has a large banking sector
that is dependent on other countries…
Bank assets in relation to GDP
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Sweden
Spain
France
Austria
Denmark
Germany
Ireland
Portugal
Average
Greece
Italy
Belgium
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Finland
Czech Republic
Hungary
Lithuania
Latvia
Poland
Bulgaria
Romania
Slovakia
Estonia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
The major Swedish banks' foreign operations
Note. Per cent. Data refer to December 2010.
Sources: ECB, European Commission,
Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank
Swedish banks are de facto NordicBaltic
Market share of Swedish banks in
Nordic and Baltic countries, late 2009
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Swedbank
SEB
Nordea
30%
Finland:
39 %
Handelsbanken
Norway:
16 %
20%
10%
0%
Denmark:
15 %
Sweden:
75 %
Estonia: 81 %
Latvia: 53 %
Lithuania: 62 %
Sources: Official and industry data, Riksbank estimates