Transcript Monetary Policy Update. December 2011, slides

Monetary Policy
Update
December 2011
Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty
bands
Per cent, quarterly averages
7
7
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
6
5
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future
repo rate. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.
14
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
-6
-8
05
06
-6
-8
07
08
09
10
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also
uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years
after the preliminary publication.
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3. CPI with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
6
6
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
5
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
05
06
07
08
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the
Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors.
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4. CPIF with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
4
4
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical
forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 5. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5
5
October
December
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
05
07
09
11
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 6. Real repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
3
3
October
December
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
05
07
09
11
Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for
the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period.
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 7. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonallyadjusted data
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
-12
-12
October
December
-16
-16
05
07
09
11
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 8. Unemployment
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
12
Unemployment, aged 16-64
12
Unemployment, aged 15-74
December
10
10
October
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
80
85
90
95
Note. Pre-1987 data have been spliced by the Riksbank.
The forecast refers to age group 15-74.
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 9. Labour force and number of
employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
5,200
5,200
Employed, aged 16-64
Employed, aged 15-74
5,000
5,000
Labour force, aged 16-64
Labour force, aged 15-74
4,800
4,800
4,600
4,600
4,400
4,400
4,200
4,200
4,000
4,000
3,800
3,800
80
85
90
95
Note. Pre-1993 data have been spliced by the Riksbank.
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 10. CPI
Annual percentage change
5
5
October
December
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
05
07
09
11
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 11. CPIF
Annual percentage change
4
4
October
December
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
05
07
09
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
11
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 12. GDP-gap and RU-indicator
Per cent and standard deviation
6
6
RU indicator
GDP gap (PF)
4
4
GDP gap (HP)
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
80
85
90
95
00
Note. GDP gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. GDP
gap (PF) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The RU indicator
is normalised so that the mean value is 0 and the standard deviation is 1.
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 13. TCW-weighted exchange
rate
Index, 18 November 1992 = 100
160
160
Oktober
December
155
155
150
150
145
145
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
115
115
05
07
09
11
Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 14. Hours gap
Per cent
Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked
calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of
hours worked from the Riksbank’s assumed trend for the numbers of hours worked.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 15. GDP in different regions
and countries
Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
USA
-12
-12
Euro area
Sweden
-16
-16
05
07
09
11
13
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank