Transcript Generali China - Unit Linked Growth

一、宏观经济
（一）国际经济形势
1、欧美经济增长数据好于预期，但次贷阴影远未消除，美国经济衰退
的可能性仍然较大
美国将1季度GDP增速由0.6%向上修正至0.9%，主要由净出口带动：净
2014-07
出口贡献率从0.2个百分点上调至0.8个百分点。5月制造业指数从4月
份的48.6升至49.6，略高于市场预期。欧元区一季度GDP季调后季比增
长0.8%，年比增长2.2%，稍高于预期。
6月初，标准普尔下调了雷曼兄弟、美林和摩根士丹利三大华尔街投资
银行的信用评级，另外，标普还将美国银行、摩根大通的评级展望由
稳定下调至负面。
2、油价高位盘整，全球通胀压力加大
五月份原油价格突破120美圆每桶，随后一路突破130美圆，最高一度
突破135美圆，随后随着美元的回升出现下跌，但依然保持在120美元
每桶之上。
五月的数据显示，越南通胀率超过百分之廿五，印尼超过百分之十，
菲律宾为百分之九点六，印度也逾百分之八，泰国为百分之七点六，
只有韩国较低，不到百分之五。亚洲发展中经济体通胀上升，主要原
因就是受国际市场油价粮价的大幅攀升影响。尽管许多亚洲国家采取
政府补贴和价格控制措施，但预计通胀还会上升，并可能引发新一轮
“成本——价格”螺旋式的上涨。
2008年5月
1. Macroeconomic
Referred to the latest economic data in July, 2014, the recovery of employment market
is going on. The non-agriculture employment data is worse than the market-expectation,
and labor market participation ratio is still stabilized at relative low level, the
unemployment rate is back to 6.2%. From the high-frequency data (weekly jobless
claims), the employment market is still on the recovery track. On the other hand, Some
other real economic data performed well continuously, such as manufacture orders or
consumptions, and so on.
The Euro-zone real economy continue showing the signs of stabilization at bottom, but
the uncertainty of economy recovery is increasing due to the Ukraine Crisis . ECB is
still preparing more QE policy in the future, which shows more signs of future loosen
policies, which make the market expectation of loosen monetary policy getting stronger.
China‘s economy recovery seems to be lower than expectation base on the data in July.
The engine of economy recovery is still the government supporting policies, but
meanwhile the real estate market is still getting worse in short-term and moreover the
finance data is much worse than expectation. Base on the high frequency data and also
referred to the macro-economy data over July, the economy had not show the strong
signs of internal demands recovery The structure of PMI and other economic data
indicated that the de-leverage process is still in process in short-term. Although it has a
short-term rebound, the growth trend of liquidity is getting slower. The inflation data
was still remaining at relative low level (especially on PPI).
2. Stock Market
In July, government continued to eject liquidity into the economy to hedge the pressure
of a sliding economy, which prolonged the bounce of Shanghai Composite/Shenzhen
Composite. By the end of the month, Shanghai Composite Index rise 8.1%, and
Shenzhen Composite rise 6.72%. Nonferrous metal sector had a outstanding
performance.
Index
SH stocks
HS300
Small stocks
SZ stocks
Volume
Amount
[million]
[million]
Percentage [%]
Turnover[%]
8.10 307,762.12 2,469,635.94
9.30 189,191.76 1,618,285.47
4.44 25,904.48
404,822.62
6.72 278,286.87 3,038,817.00
July 2014
17.14
12.05
43.76
52.45
3.Fixed-income market
Bond issuance increased YOY in July.
In July, 486 new bonds were issued, increasing by 2.55% with a total amount of 966.442bln,
among which the central clearing and settlement company issued 128 new bonds, with a total
amount of 606.702bln, accounting for 62.78% of the total; the ShangHai clearing and settlement
company issued 305 new bonds this month, with a total amount of 338.43bln and accounting for
35.02% of the total; the Exchange issued 53 new bonds this month, with a total amount of
21.31bln and accounting for 2.2% of the total.
Money market kept stable and the bond trading increased YOY in July.
Generally, money market kept stable in July. The 1D repo was closed at 3.23%, increased by
30BP compared to last month, average turnover was 661.83bln, decreased 13.1% MOM; The
7D repo was closed at 4.02%, increased by 2BP compared to last month, average turnover was
140.87bln, increased 12.7% MOM.
In July, the trading volume of the bond market in 23 trading days was 33.08 trillion, increased
57% YOY. The volume in the central clearing and settlement company was 22.68 trillion,
increased 66.33% YOY, accounting for 68.56% of the total. The volume in Shanghai clearing
and settlement company was 2.31 trillion, increased 305% YOY, accounting for 6.97% of the
total; The volume in the Exchange was 8.09 trillion, increased 18% YOY, accounting for
24.47% of the total. There were 90750 trading (excluding counter), increased 57.24% YOY.
Average daily trading volume was 985.812bln and increased 66.31% YOY. There were average
3945 trading in July each day, increased by 57.24% YOY.
July 2014
4. Mutual Fund Market
Close-ended funds:
In June, close-ended funds changed 2.24% on average. Since the beginning of 2014,
close-ended funds have changed 0.66%.
Open-ended funds:
In June, hybrid funds, equity funds, index funds changed 2.53%, 4.17%, 8.78%
respectively. Since the beginning of 2014, capital preservation funds, hybrid funds,
equity funds, index funds have changed 2.82%, 2.39%, 3.97% respectively 。
Bond funds:
In June, bond funds changed 0.78% on average. Since the beginning of 2014, bond funds
have changed 5.65% on average.
July 2014
Generali China - Unit Linked Growth
Fund Description
Fund Name
Growth
Launch Date
2004.9.30
Currency
RMB
Management Fee
Investment Objective
The objective is to maximize return in the medium-long run with a
medium to high risk level.
Investment Scope
1.5% per year
This fund mainly invest in equities as open-end, close-end mutual
fund, fixed income securities (government, financial and corporate
bond and central bank notes, etc.) and other instruments approved
by CIRC.
Latest Price (8/29/2014)
Price
Target Clients
2.1587
This account is a medium aggressive account. This fund may be quite
volatile and it is only suitable for long-term investors.
Performance
1 Month
3 Months
12 Months
YTD
Since Inception
Net Asset Value
1.69%
7.27%
12.22%
10.41%
115.87%
Shanghai T-bond Index
0.31%
0.85%
2.96%
2.31%
Shanghai & Shenzhen 300 Index
-0.51%
8.43%
1.05%
0.35%
Performance Chart and Allocation
Market & Portfolio Comments
Portfolio review and outlook:
In July, liquidity situation has improved obviously since the RE sector felt more pressure. The
market continued to rebound. We believe that the effect of bad economic expectation on the
equity market has been weakened and liquidity is good for stabilizng the economy and the market.
We remained our position at overweight and focus more on steady growth companies’ stocks.
In terms of fixed-income, we maintained the portfolio liquidity and kept standard weight. In next
1-3 months , we will adjust the duration of bonds to around 3 year and the holding will be
concentrate on AA+ - AAA corporate bonds.
July 2014
Generali China - Unit Linked Stable
Fund Description
Fund Name
Stable
Launch Date
2004.9.30
Currency
RMB
Management Fee
Investment Objective
Achieving the best match of stable investment return and good
assets liquidity with a low risk level in the medium-long run.
Investment Scope
1.25% per year
The investments focus on fixed income products and money market
funds. A small percentage may be invested in equity exposed
instruments as mutual funds. Other CIRC approved instruments
investment is allowed.
Latest Price (8/29/2014)
Price
Target Clients
1.6486
This is a conservative account, suitable for clients with a low risk
bearing ability and stable investment return needs.
Performance
1 Month
3 Months
12 Months
YTD
Since Inception
Net Asset Value
1.44%
2.93%
5.57%
6.90%
64.86%
Shanghai T-bond Index
0.31%
0.85%
2.96%
2.31%
Shanghai & Shenzhen 300 Index
-0.51%
8.43%
1.05%
0.35%
Performance Chart and Allocation
Market & Portfolio Comments
Portfolio review and outlook:
The macro-economic data of July proves the previous market expectation of weak internal
economic demand. The total social financing data in July experienced a sharp decline. However,
we do not need to overestimate the impact of a single month. The economic stability in the next
half of 2014 can rely on external demand and government infrastructural stimulus policy. A
circumstance of loosen monetary policy can also be expected.
In terms of investment strategy, we prefer to keep the low duration, and add some leverage for
long-term bond swing trade in middle and long duration bonds. The equity position will keep
neutral.
July 2014