Transcript Generali China - Unit Linked Growth

一、宏观经济
（一）国际经济形势
1、欧美经济增长数据好于预期，但次贷阴影远未消除，美国经济衰退
的可能性仍然较大
美国将1季度GDP增速由0.6%向上修正至0.9%，主要由净出口带动：
2015-02
净出口贡献率从0.2个百分点上调至0.8个百分点。5月制造业指数从4
月份的48.6升至49.6，略高于市场预期。欧元区一季度GDP季调后季
比增长0.8%，年比增长2.2%，稍高于预期。
6月初，标准普尔下调了雷曼兄弟、美林和摩根士丹利三大华尔街投资
银行的信用评级，另外，标普还将美国银行、摩根大通的评级展望由
稳定下调至负面。
2、油价高位盘整，全球通胀压力加大
五月份原油价格突破120美圆每桶，随后一路突破130美圆，最高一度
突破135美圆，随后随着美元的回升出现下跌，但依然保持在120美元
每桶之上。
五月的数据显示，越南通胀率超过百分之廿五，印尼超过百分之十，
菲律宾为百分之九点六，印度也逾百分之八，泰国为百分之七点六，
只有韩国较低，不到百分之五。亚洲发展中经济体通胀上升，主要原
因就是受国际市场油价粮价的大幅攀升影响。尽管许多亚洲国家采取
政府补贴和价格控制措施，但预计通胀还会上升，并可能引发新一轮
“成本——价格”螺旋式的上涨。
2008年5月
1. Macroeconomic
The US economy has kept a recovering trend, though short-term economic data may show
otherwise. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index started to fall in February, so did the
manufacturing PMI. Meanwhile, the unemployment data maintained a downward trend which
indicated a prosperous employment environment overall. The strong dollar is attributed to the
marginal effect of economic growth. And the market remains positive to a interest rate rise
around June 2015.
The economic condition in Eurozone started to stabilize after ECB implemented QE which in
turn, indicated that the recovery of real economy needed a loosened monetary environment. In
detail, manufacturing PMI in Eurozone points to 51, while service PMI kept growing. The PMI
indicators showed a stabilized market expectation after the policy stimulus.
Other than US, all other major economies have been initiating various loosened monetary
policies since the beginning of 2015, which suggests that a strong dollar be still on the run.
Back to China, the real economy maintained a downward trend, with frequently released data in
the industrial sector showing a weakening economic demand. To be specific, the industrial
production figure fell down to the level way below the market expectation. And real-estate
investment had started to decrease again, since the end of January, which meant the stimulus on
infrastructural construction may enhance in the short future. The total financing figure present
the phenomenon that the financing rate may still maintain at a relatively high level. Hence, the
real economy may still be constrained by the de-inventory and de-leverage pressure in trend.
Based on the analysis above, we believe that the loosened monetary policy can still be expected,
at home and abroad. And the monetary policy will still perform as the main critical factor to the
capital market. Though PBOC stated that no comprehensive loosened monetary policy will be
taken, directional policies are still be expected.
2. Stock Market
In Feb. of 2015, continued release of liquidity triggered continued activeness of the market.
SME(small and medium enterprises) and GEM(Growth Enterprise Market) performed well
since eco data is weak, directing funds to small-caps that hadn’t followed-up. By the end of
the month, Shanghai Composite Index rise 3.11%, and Shenzhen Composite rise 5.44%.
Computer sector had a outstanding performance.
Index
SH stocks
HS300
Small stocks
SZ stocks
Volume
Amount
[million]
[million]
Percentage [%]
3.11
4.03
5.44
8.30
Turnover[%]
361,559.49 4,118,308.36
280,450.12 3,487,824.46
36,685.36
542,190.30
78,953.75 1,321,617.40
Feb 2015
20.67
18.02
39.43
45.71
3.Fixed-income market
Bond issuance increased YOY in Feb. 2015
In Feb., 507 new bonds were issued, increasing by 20.92% YOY with a total amount of
718.034bln. Among which the central clearing and settlement company issued 57 new bonds,
with a total amount of 239.741bln, accounting for 33.39% of the total; the ShangHai clearing
and settlement company issued 399 new bonds this month, with a total amount of 414.25bln and
rate went down slightly compared with the last month. The 1D repo was closed at 2accounting
for 57.69% of the total; the Exchange issued 51 new bonds this month, with a total amount of
64.043bln and accounting for 8.92% of the total.
Money market rate went up moderately and the bond trading increased YOY in Feb.
Generally, money market rate went up moderately compared with the last month. The 1D repo
was closed at 3.34%, increased by 51BP compared with last month, daily volume was 591.863
billion, decreased 19.72% MOM; The 7D repo was closed at 4.71%, increased by 61BP
compared with last month, daily volume was 113.644 billion, decreased 25.07% MOM.
In Feb., the trading volume of the bond and repo in 16 trading days was 27.44 trillion, increased
53.98% YOY. The volume in the central clearing and settlement company was 17.98 trillion,
increased 54.33% YOY, accounting for 65.53% of the total. The volume in Shanghai clearing
and settlement company was 2.3 trillion, increased 186.7% YOY, accounting for 8.4% of the
total; The volume in the Exchange was 7.15 trillion, increased 33.15% YOY, accounting for
26.07% of the total. There were 70606 trading (excluding counter), increased 15.21% YOY.
Average daily trading volume was 1123.875bln and increased 63.97% YOY. There were average
4413 trading in January each day, increased by 22.41% YOY.
Feb 2015
4. Mutual Fund Market
Close-ended funds:
In Feb., close-ended funds changed 5.78% on average.
Open-ended funds:
In Feb., hybrid funds, equity funds, index funds changed 4.79%, 6.91%, 4.93%
respectively.
Bond funds:
In Feb., bond funds changed 0.88% on average.
Feb 2015
Generali China - Unit Linked Growth
Fund Description
Fund Name
Growth
Launch Date
2004.9.30
Currency
RMB
Management Fee
Investment Objective
The objective is to maximize return in the medium-long run with a
medium to high risk level.
Investment Scope
1.5% per year
This fund mainly invest in equities as open-end, close-end mutual
fund, fixed income securities (government, financial and corporate
bond and central bank notes, etc.) and other instruments approved
by CIRC.
Latest Price (2/27/2015)
Price
Target Clients
2.7806
This account is a medium aggressive account. This fund may be quite
volatile and it is only suitable for long-term investors.
Performance
1 Month
3 Months
12 Months
YTD
Since Inception
Net Asset Value
6.75%
18.26%
40.99%
13.48%
178.06%
Shanghai T-bond Index
0.63%
1.53%
5.50%
1.32%
Shanghai & Shenzhen 300 Index
4.03%
27.20%
63.97%
1.11%
Performance Chart and Allocation
Market & Portfolio Comments
Portfolio review and outlook:
In February, liquidity was still abundant due to sluggish economy, and the market sentiment was
switched from blue-chip to small-caps. TMT sector enjoyed significant swing up. Although we
are optimistic on the potential of TMT, we should be aware of the risks of companies that has no
growth potential, and thus wait for financial performance to verify the rise in valuation. We will
maintain high position and focus on structural opportunities of low valuation and stable
performance and avoid the cyclical sectors which are hurt by the slowing down economy or
thematic stocks with no performance support.
In terms of fixed-income, we maintained the portfolio liquidity and kept standard weight. We
plan to adjust the duration to around 3 year and the holding will be concentrate on AA+ - AAA
corporate bonds. Recently, we reduced bonds with duration less than 1-year to adjust holding
structure.
Feb 2015
Generali China - Unit Linked Stable
Fund Description
Fund Name
Stable
Launch Date
2004.9.30
Currency
RMB
Management Fee
Investment Objective
Achieving the best match of stable investment return and good
assets liquidity with a low risk level in the medium-long run.
Investment Scope
1.25% per year
The investments focus on fixed income products and money market
funds. A small percentage may be invested in equity exposed
instruments as mutual funds. Other CIRC approved instruments
investment is allowed.
Latest Price (2/27/2015)
Price
Target Clients
1.8286
This is a conservative account, suitable for clients with a low risk
bearing ability and stable investment return needs.
Performance
1 Month
3 Months
12 Months
YTD
Since Inception
Net Asset Value
2.75%
4.57%
16.41%
4.46%
82.86%
Shanghai T-bond Index
0.63%
1.53%
5.50%
1.32%
Shanghai & Shenzhen 300 Index
4.03%
27.20%
63.97%
1.11%
Performance Chart and Allocation
Market & Portfolio Comments
Portfolio review and outlook:
Considering the possibility of tightened liquidity status affected by Spring Festival factor, we
did not increase our leverage position to the maximum. With the prospect of few swing trade
opportunities in the bond market, we actively added our A-part stock fund exposure up to
approx. 20%, and meanwhile, cut off the short-term interest rate bond, which might
contribute relatively less to the portfolio performance.
For March, we hold our original point of view in terms of long-term economic downturn and
deflation status in the industrial sector. However, the bond market may still confront with a
short-term fluctuation, due to the IPO factor and the uneven bond supply and demand
situation in the primary market. Therefore, we will keep our leverage position to around 20%
and improve marginal rate of return among corporate bonds, while maintaining a relatively
high exposure of A-part stock funds. We believe that there will be more investment
opportunities in some of the industrial sectors, and intend to maintain the equity
Febposition
2015 high.