Transcript UL report_201501_ENG

一、宏观经济
（一）国际经济形势
1、欧美经济增长数据好于预期，但次贷阴影远未消除，美国经济衰退
的可能性仍然较大
美国将1季度GDP增速由0.6%向上修正至0.9%，主要由净出口带动：净
2015-01
出口贡献率从0.2个百分点上调至0.8个百分点。5月制造业指数从4月
份的48.6升至49.6，略高于市场预期。欧元区一季度GDP季调后季比增
长0.8%，年比增长2.2%，稍高于预期。
6月初，标准普尔下调了雷曼兄弟、美林和摩根士丹利三大华尔街投资
银行的信用评级，另外，标普还将美国银行、摩根大通的评级展望由
稳定下调至负面。
2、油价高位盘整，全球通胀压力加大
五月份原油价格突破120美圆每桶，随后一路突破130美圆，最高一度
突破135美圆，随后随着美元的回升出现下跌，但依然保持在120美元
每桶之上。
五月的数据显示，越南通胀率超过百分之廿五，印尼超过百分之十，
菲律宾为百分之九点六，印度也逾百分之八，泰国为百分之七点六，
只有韩国较低，不到百分之五。亚洲发展中经济体通胀上升，主要原
因就是受国际市场油价粮价的大幅攀升影响。尽管许多亚洲国家采取
政府补贴和价格控制措施，但预计通胀还会上升，并可能引发新一轮
“成本——价格”螺旋式的上涨。
2008年5月
1. Macroeconomic
The US economy has been kept recovering, with various sentiment index showing an optimistic
expectation about the economy. The employment data also performed well, though with structural
problems. The marginal effect of economic growth is one of the reasons for strong dollar. The market
investors still keep the expectation that Fed may make the first interest rate hike in June 2015.
ECB pushed forward first asset-purchase plan near the end of January, which signified the beginning
of QE. The loosened monetary policy indicates a weakened economic fundamentals. Meanwhile, the
market sentiment factors also lead us to the same conclusion. In recent, Greece debt problem may
become the X-factor for Euro-zone economy.
Besides US, the rest of the world is experiencing an all-round loosened monetary environment, which
suggests a strong US dollar in trend.
Back to domestic economy, the macro-economy remains a weakening trend, according to the data of
Jan. 2015. The real-estate investment was still the most significant factor to drag down the fixed asset
investment data. Hence, the real economy is still constrained by the de-inventory and de-leverage
pressure.
Based on the analysis above, we believe that the trend of loosened monetary policy will be remained
globally. And the monetary factor will still perform as one of the most critical factors to affect market
price. Though PBOC stated that no comprehensive loosened monetary policy will be taken,
directional policies are still be expected.
2. Stock Market
In Jan. of 2015, due to strong surveillance on leverage, capital inflow has been slowing down,
which caused a market adjustment. However, liquidity trend is still in favor of the equity
market, and the sentiment is still bullish on the structural opportunities. Therefore, the small
caps had a good performance. By the end of the month, Shanghai Composite Index rise
1.41%, and Shenzhen Composite rise 4%. Computer sector had a outstanding performance.
Index
SH stocks
HS300
Small stocks
SZ stocks
Volume
Amount
[million]
[million]
Percentage [%]
1.41
-0.67
4.00
10.37
Turnover[%]
744,343.23 8,266,478.49
601,955.57 7,407,650.86
65,108.45
992,984.15
121,380.96 1,896,102.78
Jan 2015
35.79
32.67
81.27
76.87
3.Fixed-income market
Bond issuance increased YOY in January 2015
In January 2015, 658 new bonds were issued, increasing by 127.24% YOY with a total amount
of 918.814 bln. Among which the central clearing and settlement company issued 95 new bonds,
with a total amount of 341.811 bln, accounting for 37.2% of the total; the ShangHai clearing and
settlement company issued 501 new bonds this month, with a total amount of 540.35 bln and
accounting for 58.81% of the total; the Exchange issued 62 new bonds this month, with a total
amount of 36.653 bln and accounting for 3.99% of the total.
Money market rate went down slightly and the bond trading increased YOY in January
Generally, money market rate went down slightly compared with the last month. The 1D repo
was closed at 2.83%, decreased by 15BP compared with last month, daily volume was 341.811
billion, increased 11.7% MOM ; The 7D repo was closed at 4.1%, decreased by 36BP compared
with last month, daily volume was 151.659 billion, decreased 6.32% MOM.
In January 2015, the trading volume of the bond market in 20 trading days was 36.26 trillion,
increased 74.49% YOY. The volume in the central clearing and settlement company was 23.82
trillion, increased 71.86% YOY, accounting for 65.68% of the total. The volume in Shanghai
clearing and settlement company was 3.31 trillion, increased 401.52% YOY, accounting for
9.14% of the total; The volume in the Exchange was 9.13 trillion, increased 46.08% YOY,
accounting for 25.18% of the total. There were 89781 trading (excluding counter), increased
37.17% YOY. Average daily trading volume was 1134.108bln and increased 79.97% YOY.
There were average 4275 trading in January each day, increased by 43.7% YOY.
Jan 2015
4. Mutual Fund Market
Close-ended funds:
In Jan., close-ended funds changed 2.96% on average.
Open-ended funds:
In Jan., hybrid funds, equity funds, index funds changed 3.48%, 4.85%, 1.13%
respectively.
Bond funds:
In Jan., bond funds changed 0.85% on average.
Jan 2015
Generali China - Unit Linked Growth
Fund Description
Fund Name
Growth
Launch Date
2004.9.30
Currency
RMB
Management Fee
Investment Objective
The objective is to maximize return in the medium-long run with a
medium to high risk level.
Investment Scope
1.5% per year
This fund mainly invest in equities as open-end, close-end mutual
fund, fixed income securities (government, financial and corporate
bond and central bank notes, etc.) and other instruments approved
by CIRC.
Latest Price (1/30/2015)
Price
Target Clients
2.6048
This account is a medium aggressive account. This fund may be quite
volatile and it is only suitable for long-term investors.
Performance
1 Month
3 Months
12 Months
YTD
Since Inception
Net Asset Value
6.30%
14.73%
34.88%
6.30%
160.49%
Shanghai T-bond Index
0.68%
1.51%
5.08%
0.68%
Shanghai & Shenzhen 300 Index
-2.81%
36.92%
55.93%
-2.81%
Performance Chart and Allocation
Market & Portfolio Comments
Portfolio review and outlook:
In Jan., the capital inflow was slowing down and the style of the market became more balance.
We believe that the market was still in an uptrend due to abundant liquidity since the economy
was going down. Therefore, we keep high equity positions, focusing on structural opportunities
and avoid the cyclical sectors which are hurt by the slowing down economy.
In terms of fixed-income, we maintained the portfolio liquidity and kept standard weight. We
plan to adjust the duration to around 3 year and the holding will be concentrate on AA+ - AAA
corporate bonds. Recently, we reduced bonds with duration less than 1-year to adjust holding
structure.
Jan 2015
Generali China - Unit Linked Stable
Fund Description
Fund Name
Stable
Launch Date
2004.9.30
Currency
RMB
Management Fee
Investment Objective
Achieving the best match of stable investment return and good
assets liquidity with a low risk level in the medium-long run.
Investment Scope
1.25% per year
The investments focus on fixed income products and money market
funds. A small percentage may be invested in equity exposed
instruments as mutual funds. Other CIRC approved instruments
investment is allowed.
Latest Price (1/30/2015)
Price
Target Clients
1.7796
This is a conservative account, suitable for clients with a low risk
bearing ability and stable investment return needs.
Performance
1 Month
3 Months
12 Months
YTD
Since Inception
Net Asset Value
1.66%
4.16%
15.57%
1.66%
77.96%
Shanghai T-bond Index
0.68%
1.51%
5.08%
0.68%
Shanghai & Shenzhen 300 Index
-2.81%
36.92%
55.93%
-2.81%
Performance Chart and Allocation
Market & Portfolio Comments
Portfolio review and outlook:
In Jan, we increased the A-part fund holding to almost 15%, which proved itself to be one of the
best assets during the month. But we failed to decrease the position of short-term interest rate
bond product due to liquidity shortage.
Due to the severe deflation in the industrial sectors and global loosening monetary environment,
the economic condition are likely to drag down local currency valuation, which may create a
better time point for Central Bank to initiate its loosened monetary policies. Under this
circumstance, we will keep our current leverage position (no need for maximize leverage
exposure due to the very flattened yield curve), and seek for more swing trade opportunities for
A-part stock funds.
Equity: The equity position will be lifted up to more than 10% due to a prediction of better
performance in certain sectors.
Jan 2015