Transcript PPT
PASSENGER MOVEMENTS
BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES,
1970–71 TO 2030–31
David Gargett
Afzal Hossain
13 February 2007
Background
• Arose from need to forecast light
vehicle traffic on the national highways.
• But need to consider all modes.
• Thus aim is to model drivers of total
passenger travel between cities.
• Only then can one predict highway car
travel patterns.
Objectives
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Estimation of passenger
movements by mode between
Australian major cities from
1970-71 to 2003-04.
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What will growth be to 2030-31 in
passenger movements by mode
between Australian cities?
Ten city pairs
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Sydney-Melbourne
Sydney-Brisbane
Melbourne-Brisbane
Melbourne-Adelaide
Eastern States-Perth
Sydney-Adelaide
Melbourne and Sydney-Gold Coast
Eastern States-Tasmania
Canberra-Sydney
Eastern States-Northern Territory
Modes
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Air
Car
Coach
Rail
Other
Time series
Historical Data: 1970-71 to 2003-04
Projections: 2004-05 to 2030-31
Based on
GDP (Treasury)
Population Growth Rates (ABS)
Changes in Fares (various sources)
Main data sources
• Designed around tourism data on interregional passenger movements.
• Because the data has been and continues
to be measured by Tourism Research
Australia (TRA), to the tune of $4M/year.
• TRA surveys both domestic and international
travellers about their travel between the
regions of Australia.
• This data has been assembled for the 10 city
pairs by mode from 1970-71 to 2003-04.
Gravity Model
Total passenger travel between any two cities
(say i and j) can be calculated:
Tij = (Pi x Pj x GDPc2)0.524 / (Tc / CPI)-0.565
where
Tij - Total trips between regions i and j.
Pi and Pj - Total population in region i and region j.
GDPc - National gross domestic product per capita.
Tc - Real generalised cost of travel.
CPI - Consumer Price Index.
Logistic Substitution Model
• Forecasts of total travel were converted
to forecasts for specific modes by
using logistic substitution models of
mode split.
• For each mode, a competitiveness
index was estimated based on changes
in the mode share over the last decade.
• A competitiveness index below 1.0
means the mode is expected to decline
over time in share relative to air.
Logistic Substitution Model – Contd.
For example, on the short Canberra-Sydney route,
the competitiveness indices are:
Air 1.00
Car - 1.02
Coach - 0.98
Rail - 1.03
On the long Sydney-Brisbane route (more typical of
the intercity routes), the competitiveness indices are:
Air –
Car CoachRail -
1.00
0.97
0.93
0.93
4 000
Rail
Coach
Car
Air
Actual
2002-03
2006-07
2010-11
2014-15
2018-19
2022-23
2026-27
2030-31
6 000
1970-71
1974-75
1978-79
1982-83
1986-87
1990-91
1994-95
1998-99
Passenger ('000)
Passenger Movements by Mode
Sydney-Brisbane
Forecasts
2 000
0
2030-31
2026-27
40
2022-23
60
2018-19
2014-15
2010-11
Actual
2006-07
2002-03
1998-99
1994-95
1990-91
100
1986-87
1982-83
1978-79
1974-75
1970-71
Per cent
Mode Share (per cent)
Sydney-Brisbane
Forecasts
80
Air
Car
Coach
Rail
20
0
Average annual growth rates by mode,
1970-71 to 2003-04
City pairs
(per cent)
Air
Car
Coach
Rail
Other
Syd-Mel
5.1
-0.3
1.8
-2.1
3.0
Syd-Bne
4.6
0.5
0.7
-1.7
2.8
Mel-Bne
7.3
1.7
2.9
-2.4
5.9
Mel-Adl
4.5
2.0
0.6
-1.5
2.7
ES-Per
7.2
4.9
-0.8
-3.3
6.2
Syd-Adl
6.0
-0.1
-2.0
-1.5
3.5
Mel+Syd-GC
7.6
1.2
6.3
-1.6
3.8
ES-Tas
3.8
4.8
0.6
3.9
3.9
Cbr-Syd
3.0
4.0
4.6
-1.3
3.8
ES-NT
6.1
5.5
1.8
3.7
5.4
Average annual growth rates
comparison (all modes)
Syd-Mel
1970-71 to 2003-04
2004-05 to 2030-31
Syd-Bne
Mel-Bne
Mel-Adl
ES-Per
Syd-Adl
Mel+Syd-GC
ES-Tas
Cbr-Syd
ES-NT
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
(per cent)
5.0
6.0
7.0
So what do we get ?
1. An understanding of the drivers of
travel.
2. An understanding of the patterns of
mode share change.
3. A link to a continuing and funded
data source updated yearly.
4. 1 to 3 provide the basis for the
OZPASS interregional travel model.
5. Forecasts out of the OZPASS model
are providing forecasts of car traffic
along AUSLINK Corridors.
These forecasts are:
1. Systematic – based on transparent
research.
2. Validated – Bruce Highways over 10
years.
3. Multi-modal – e.g. current airports
project.
4. Open to scenarios – i.e. policy
changes or changes in assumed
conditions (e.g. fares).
Summary
• On all routes, except Canberra–Sydney route,
air travel has been progressively taking mode
share from car plus coach and rail.
• This effect will be less important in the future
as the rate of mode share capture by air slows.
• Overall, total passenger travel growth is
expected to continue to grow more quickly
than GDP.
• The relationships found on the 10 corridors
have been built into the OZPASS interregional
travel model.
FOR A COPY OF THE
PUBLICATION VISIT:
www.btre.gov.au/Publications/Information Sheet/
Information Sheet 26
Thank you
Any question ?