Transcript Road Transport

WP3 – Alternative Scenarios of
Growth
Trends in Road Transport (Passenger, Freight)
D. Tsamboulas
External Consultant
Introduction to WP3
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The focus of this report was to provide reference
scenarios to frame the general evolution of transport
demand and supply.
Such a framework does not necessarily require the
definition of mathematical models linking socio-economic
variables (inputs) and traffic levels (outputs), assigned on
a network.
The moderate and optimistic scenarios for socio-economic
and transport demand described in this report highlight
the most important medium and long-term trends, given
the past and present development of key variables
Basic drawings of WP3
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GDP will continue to increase steadily
Population will decline slightly from around 2015
Passenger traffic trend includes the increased dependency
on the car against other modes like bus/ coach and rail
Freight transport main trends show dominance of road
transport.
Such general trends must be taken with caution, due to
significant differences between regions
Transport framework
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Based on existing studies and available data of transport
characteristics and “movements” of each country
group,current transport trends were identified.
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data from 1990-2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 were employed
to establish current transport trends
employed approach to trend analysis in forecasting involves
the use of growth curves
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Connection of transport trends with socio-economic trends
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Transport forecasting, with 2000 as the base year
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where projections were available they were used (TINA,
TIRS,
SCENARIOS,
CODE-TEN,
STAC-TEN,
REBIS,
WORLDBANK, UNECE, EC etc.)
Country groups
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Transport trends of Group 1Connection with socio-economic variables
Total Passenger Traffic Growth = GDP Growth
Total Freight Traffic Growth = (1,625) * (GDP Growth)
Transport trends of Group 2Connection with socio-economic variables
Car Passenger Traffic Growth=(1,55)*[(GDP/Population)Growth]
Coach Passenger Traffic Growth=(-1,68)*[(GDP/Population)Growth]
Freight Traffic by Road Growth = GDP Growth
Transport trends of Group 3Connection with socio-economic variables
Local traffic:
1.25*(GDP Growth)
Overall traffic (including international):
(Traffic multiplicator)*(GDP Growth)
Where traffic multiplicator can be: 1.68, 2.10 and 2.6
Transport Scenarios
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Forecasting on group-country level
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Two scenarios
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Separately for passenger and freight
Moderate and optimistic
See tables next
Table 2 Group 1 Countries - Passenger Demand Forecasts (Road –car
and bus/coaches-) Moderate Scenario
* Billion pax-kms
Table 3 Group 1 Countries - Passenger Demand Forecasts (Road –car
and bus/coaches-) Optimistic Scenario
* Billion pax-kms
Table 4 Group 1 Countries - Freight Demand Forecasts (Road)
Moderate Scenario
* Billion tone-kms
Table 5 Group 1 Countries - Freight Demand Forecasts (Road)
Optimistic Scenario
* Billion tone-kms
Table 6 Group 2 Countries – Passenger Demand Forecasts (Road)
Moderate Scenario
Table 7 Group 2 Countries – Passenger Demand Forecasts (Road)
Optimistic Scenario
Table 8 Group 2 Countries – Freight Demand Forecasts (Road)
Moderate Scenario
Table 9 Group 2 Countries – Freight Demand Forecasts (Road)
Optimistic Scenario
Table 10a Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group 2 Countries
(Moderate scenario)
*Projections per country, separately
for passenger and freight impossible,
but trend forecasting of total traffic,
was relatively easier, since TINA had
produced projections up to 2015
Table 10b Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group 2 Countries
(Optimistic scenario)
*Projections per country, separately
for passenger and freight impossible,
but trend forecasting of total traffic,
was relatively easier, since TINA had
produced projections up to 2015
Table 11 Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group 3 Countries
(Moderate scenario)
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**Due to limited data no specific projections were made, but a general
hypothesis says that these countries will probably follow the rest Group 3
countries
Table 12 Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group 3 Countries
(Optimistic scenario)
n
**Due to limited data no specific projections were made, but a general
hypothesis says that these countries will probably follow the rest Group 3
countries
Road Traffic- Coaches
Specificities
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Group 1:
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Group 2:
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average annual increase of 0,1% (starting with -0,03% in
the year 2000 and reaching a 0,23% increase in 2020
Group 3:
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average annual increase of 0,1% (starting with 0,03% in the
year 2000 and reaching a 0,16% increase in 2020)
a similar course with that of Group 2 countries
The above are based on a moderate scenario. The optimistic is
not dramatically different though.
Conclusion for Coaches Traffic
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Passenger traffic is expected to grow but bus/coach modal
share and traffic volumes are not expected to change
dramatically up to 2020
Regarding the present decrease in public transport volumes,
this is due to the high increase in car ownership and usage as
well as in the development of air transport industry in all
countries.
Regarding the minor increases expected in the future, these
would probably be a result of the EC policy objectives that
have been defined for countries of Group 1 and 2, in order to
diminish the environmental consequences of transport and
bring about a shift in transport use from road to rail, water
and public passenger transport.
Road Traffic- Trucks
Specificities
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Group 1:
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Group 2:
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moderate forecast on trucks traffic predicts an average annual
increase of 2,7% (starting with 2,67% in the year 2000 and
reaching a 2,82% increase in 2020).
optimistic scenario gives an average annual increase of 3,29%
(starting with 3,2% in the year 2000 and reaching a 3,38%
increase in 2020)
moderate forecast on trucks traffic predicts an average annual
increase of 2,32% (starting with 2,19% in the year 2000 and
reaching a 2,44% increase in 2020).
optimistic scenario gives an average annual increase of 2,63%
(starting with 2,49% in the year 2000 and reaching a 2,77%
increase in 2020)
For Group 3, current or future modal shares are not analytically
available but the underlying trend shows a more rapid growth in
road than in rail freight transport
Conclusion for Trucks Traffic
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Freight traffic is expected to grow and trucks “share” in
absolute numbers-not as modal share- is expected to
grow up to 2020, both in moderate and in the optimistic
trend scenario.