Transcript Eric Hanushek - Harvard Kennedy School

Globally Challenged: Are U. S.
Students Ready to Compete?
Paul E. Peterson, Ludger Woessmann,
Eric A. Hanushek, and Carlos Lastra
Learning from the International Experience
Program on Education Policy and Governance
Harvard University
August 2011
International Comparisons
• Extensive assessments of math, science, and
reading skills
• International comparisons largely ignored by U.S.
• U.S. scores portend bleak future
• Current recession costs dwarfed by schooling crisis
0
ShanghaiSingapore
Hong KongKorea
Chinese
Finland
Liechtenstein
Switzerland
Japan
Canada
Netherlands
Macao-China
New
Belgium
Australia
Germany
Estonia
Iceland
Denmark
Slovenia
Norway
France
Slovak
Austria
Poland
Sweden
Czech
United
Hungary
Luxembourg
United States
Ireland
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Russian
Greece
Croatia
Dubai (UAE)
Israel
Turkey
Serbia
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
Romania
Uruguay
Chile
Thailand
Mexico
Trinidad and
Kazakhstan
Montenegro
Argentina
Jordan
Brazil
Colombia
Albania
Tunisia
Indonesia
Qatar
Peru
Panama
Kyrgyzstan
International Math Rankings – PISA 2009
PISA Math Performance 2009
600
500
400
300
200
100
Cognitive Skills and Economic
Growth
G
er
m
Ire any
la
Ja n d
Fi pa
nl n
a
Ko nd
G re
Un
ite N re e a
d o ce
K r
Sw ing wa
it z d o y
er m
la
Cz
n
ec I Isra d
h ce el
Re la
p n
Sl u b d
EU ove lic
ni
19
a
I
av ta
De er ly
Sl
nmage
ov
O a k Po ark
E C R la
D ep u nd
av bl
i
Ne Hu er a c
Un w ng ge
ite Zea ar y
d la
S n
Swtate d
e s
Ca d e
na n
Lu
xe Sp da
m ai
bo n
ur
C
Po h g
rtu ile
M ga
ex l
Tu ico
rk
ey
Percent
Secondary School Completion
Secondary School Completion Rates
100
75
50
25
0
Years of Schooling and Economic
Growth
With quality control
Without quality control
Projections of Value of Improved Schooling
• Assume future looks like past
• Improve schools over 20 years
• Calculate added GDP based on history
• Discount future over lifetime of somebody born
today
Growth Projections
• Scenario 1
- Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.)
60%
Annual Gains from 25 PISA-Points
Improvement
(1/4 std. dev.)
Percent addition to annual GDP
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
60%
Annual Gains from 25 PISA-Points
Improvement
(1/4 std. dev.)
Percent addition to annual GDP
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
60%
Annual Gains from 25 PISA-Points
Improvement
(1/4 std. dev.)
Percent addition to annual GDP
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
Growth Projections
• Scenario 1
- Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.)
- PV = 288% of current GDP
- $44 trillion for United States
Growth Projections
• Scenario 1
- Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.)
• Scenario 2
- U.S. achieves at level of Finland
- PV = 737% of current GDP in United States
- $112 trillion for United States
Growth Projections
• Scenario 1
- Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.)
• Scenario 2
- U.S. achieves at level of Finland
• Scenario 3
- All students to 400 points (basic skills) [19% in U.S.]
- PV = 567% of current GDP in United States
- $86 trillion for United States
Math League Tables -- 2009
• 32% proficient in U.S. (NAEP standard)
- 32nd out of 65 countries
Proficient in Math – PISA 2009
Math League Tables -- 2009
• 32% proficient in U.S. (NAEP standard)
- 32nd out of 65 countries
• Massachusetts significantly outperformed by 6
• Minnesota significantly outperformed by 11
California competes with . . .
California competes with . . .
California competes with . . .
Math League Tables -- 2009
• 32% proficient in U.S. (NAEP standard)
- 32nd out of 65 countries
• Massachusetts significantly outperformed by 6
• Minnesota significantly outperformed by 11
• California significantly outperformed by 36
Observations
• Not U.S. having especially difficult to educate
• White students
White Students in US vs All Internationally
Observations
• Not U.S. having especially difficult to educate
• White students
- 42% proficient; 17th in comparison to all in other
countries
• College educated parents
Students in US with College Educated Parent
vs All Internationally
Observations
• Not U.S. having especially difficult to educate
• White students
- 42% proficient; 17th in comparison to all in other
countries
• College educated parents
- 44% proficient; 16th in comparison to all in other
countries
Conclusions
• Not a few bad states
• Not a difficult to educate population
• Very different futures for United States
• Easy to ignore, hard to recover