Transcript PRASA Presentation - Mr Piet Sebola

The Gauteng Economic Indaba
Transport and Logistics
Mr Piet Sebola
Group Executive
Strategic Asset Development
Date: 09th June 2016
Transport and Logistics – context for discussion
 The Current State of Transport
 Cost of Transport
 The impact of Urbanisation - Gauteng
 The Solution
 Key Considerations
1
The current state of transport
How do people commute?
 Over a 10 year period,
there has been an
increase towards using
cars instead of other
modes of transport
Mode used to commute
to work (2013)
Train,
13.1%
 And even within 38.8%
public transport, 87% is
road based public
transport
Bus,
19.4%
Taxi,
67.5%
Source: National Household Travel Survey, 2013
2
Gauteng’s Public Transport Trips – Model Split
Gauteng PT Trips Modal
Split
(2013)
Gauteng PT Trips
Modal Split
(2003)
Train,
16.1%
Train,
17.4%
Gauteng
Bus,
10.6%
Taxi,
73.3%
Bus,
11.7%
Taxi,
70.8%
• There is a small shift towards busses and trains within
public transport
• Increase in accessibility due to initiatives such as Rapid
Bus System, Gautrain and Metrorail
Source: National Household Travel Survey, 2013
3
Cost of Transport
25.00
Total public passenger transport cost as percentage of metropolitan GDP
20.00
Total private passenger transport cost as percentage of metropolitan GDP
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
SA
•
•
Other Africa L. America Developing
Asian
South Africa has
one of the
highest costs of
transport in the
world
Even higher than
other developing
countries
E. Europe
W.Europe
Canada
Oceania
USA
Middle East
Wealthy
Asian
Over 70% of South
Africans spend at
least 30% of their
income on
transport
4
Cost of Transport
25.00
Total public passenger transport cost as percentage of metropolitan GDP
20.00
Total private passenger transport cost as percentage of metropolitan GDP
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
SA
Other Africa L. America Developing
Asian
E. Europe
•
•
W.Europe
Canada
Best Practise is
10%
Developed
countries
generally at
5-7%
Oceania
USA
Middle East
Wealthy
Asian
Over 70% of South
Africans spend at
least 30% of their
income on
transport
5
Cost of Transport
25.00
Total public passenger transport cost as percentage of metropolitan GDP
20.00
Total private passenger transport cost as percentage of metropolitan GDP
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
SA
•
Other Africa L. America Developing
Asian
E. Europe
W.Europe
Canada
Oceania
USA
Middle East
Wealthy
Asian
Lost Productivity made worse by Spatial Disparity
•
Commuters live on the urban fringes which translates
into longer commute times (over 47% of commuters
report travel times as much as 90 min)
•
High travel cost leads to an inability to access
social, leisure and economic opportunities
Over 70% of South
Africans spend at
least 30% of their
income on
transport
6
Urbanisation
South African General Urbanisation Patterns
20
40.0%
18
35.0%
16
14
25.0%
Millions(of people)
12
20.0%
y = 4E+06e0.0282x
R² = 0.9996
10
15.0%
8
10.0%
6
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0%
1970
1972
2
1964
1966
1968
5.0%
1960
1962
4
Year of Census/Count
Population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million
Population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million (% of total
population)
•
Urbanisation progressing at
breakneck speeds, especially in
developing countries
percentage%(Growth)
30.0%
• Today over 40% of
South Africans live in
cities with a population
of
> 1 million
• SA Urban population is
doubling every 20 years
• Gauteng 25 Year
Integrated Master Plan,
2013: Population in
Gauteng is expected to
increase from 12.3
million to
18.7 million (+50%) in
the next 25 years
• 3% of world’s population lived in cities in the 1800s
• 30% by 1950
• 50% today
• 60-65% (2 out of 3 people) by 2030
7
Gauteng Global City Region
• Rate of urbanisation and growth projections for Gauteng highlights
the need for sustainable transport solutions
• Current trends indicate increase in car trips and ownership.
o
the doubling of vehicle ownership since 1994
o
almost half of South Africa’s vehicle population is concentrated in
Gauteng
• The bulk of public transport is road based (buses and taxis) – the
increasing congestion on the road network contributes to an ineffective
public transport system
• Urban sprawl contributing to the cost of providing transport
8
Capacity for modes of transport
9
The solution
Rail as the back bone of
transport
• No coincidence that we see revival of
rail throughout most of the world
• New rail expansion projects
• Upgrading and modernisation of
existing rail systems
• Rail technology advancements
• Rail benefits cannot be ignored;
increased capacity, environmentally
friendly, less land required, permanence
/ attract investment, reduce car & fuel
reliance, less traffic congestion, drives
growth
10
Gauteng Global City Region – Rail City
• Benefits: cities with large, well established rail systems have significantly;
o
o
o
o
o
o
higher per capita public transport ridership,
lower average per capita vehicle ownership and annual kms,
less traffic congestion,
lower traffic death rates,
lower household expenditures on transportation, and
higher public transport service cost recovery than otherwise comparable cities with
less or no rail services.
• This indicates that rail systems provide economic, social and environmental
benefits, and these benefits tend to increase as a system expands and matures
Todd Litman, VTPI, 2012
• Current Constraints in South Africa: Progress in
achieving the benefits has not yet materialised:
o Lack of Accessibility
o Lack of Integration
o Underdeveloped rail system
Households with no train service
24
Cape Town
51
Johannesburg
56
Pretoria
70
Durban
85
Port Elizabeth
0
20
40
60
80
100
% of households
11
Revival of Rail in South Africa
Expansion plans into Gauteng
Gautrain
Rail
Transport
Transnet
investment
~R 300 billion
Transnet
PRASA
PRASA
investment
~R 172 billion
12
Key considerations
• Critical supporting elements / measures:
o Modal integration (feeder networks such as taxi’s at stations, infrastructure,
ticketing etc.)
o Travel Demand Management measures to 1) redirect travel demand to public
transport and Non Motorised Transport, 2) reduce demand for single / low
occupancy car travel
 Physical (Infra): PT Lanes, Park & Ride, NMT facilities (bicycle lanes, etc)
 Regulatory: Parking supply restrictions, staggered working hours
 Pricing: review fare levels, subsidies, car taxes, parking charges, road tolls, fuel
tax, congestion charging, concessions
o Land use and transport integration: better integrated through processes of land
use densification, infill development and Transit Oriented Development along public
transport network, rail in particular
13
End – Thank You
The FUTURE of South African Passenger Rail is here!
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