Transcript What does sustainability mean? - Gauteng City

A Developmental Green Economy
for Gauteng
Professor Mark Swilling, Sustainability Institute
School of Public Management and Planning
Stellenbosch University
South Africa
Material Flows – the missing factor
Behrens, 2007
Decoupling:
resource & impact
resource decoupling
economic activity (GDP)
impact decoupling
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resource use h
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R
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environmental impacts
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2
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TIME e
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Decoupling:
relative & absolute
relative decoupling
economic activity (GDP)
absolute decoupling
resource use
TIME
resource use
Three forced future scenarios for 2050
Global metabolic scales in billion tonnes
Global metabolic rates in t/cap
16
160
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial
minerals
Fossil fuels
120
12
Biomass
80
8
40
4
0
0
Baseline 2000
Freeze &
catching up
Factor 2 &
catching up
Fischer-Kowalski | UNEP Nov. 08 | 24
Freeze global
DMC
Baseline 2000
Freeze & catching
up
Factor 2 &
catching up
Freeze global
DMC
Footprinting
Green Economy =
Materials: 6t/c
CO2: 2.2 t/cap
BAU =
Materials: 8t/c
CO2: 4.5 t/cap
Green Economy
• “There can be little doubt that the economy of the 21st
century will be low-carbon. What has become clear is
that the push toward decarbonisation will be one of the
major drivers of global and national economic growth
over the next decade. And the economies that embrace
the green revolution earliest will reap the greatest
economic rewards.” – PM Gordon Brown, Newsweek, 28
September 2009
• “As leaders of the world’s major economies, we are
working for a resilient, sustainable and green economy.”
– G20 Pittsburgh 24-25 Sept 2009
• "We have an opportunity over the decade ahead to shift
the structure of our economy towards greater energy
efficiency, and more responsible use of our natural
resources and relevant resource-based knowledge and
expertise. Our economic growth over the next decade
and beyond cannot be built on the same principles and
technologies, the same energy systems and the same
transport modes, that we are familiar with today." -
South African Finance Minister Trevor Manual, Budget
speech, Parliament February 20th, 2008
Recent South African policy
initiatives
• Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios/Copenhagen
Commitments
• National Framework for Sustainable
Development (towards NSSD)
• Renewable Energy White Paper
• Green Economy Strategy (‘green jobs’)
• Industrial Policy Action Plan
• National Water Resource Strategy
• Carbon Taxes
Gauteng’s Sustainability
Challenges
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Food security
Energy security
Water supply/quality & sanitation
Solid waste
Mobility
Settlement patterns
Poverty & inequality
Resource & energy intensive economy
Core logic
• Sustainability challenges will undermine
growth & job creation
• Money will need to be spent on solutions
anyway, but according to what paradigm?
• Hence: green economy approach about
growth & jobs via investments that
address resource constraints using
sustainable technologies
Food Group
Current Production
Current Consumption
Nutritional Consumption
Total
Total
Required
Total
(tons / year)
Area (ha)
(tons / year)
(ha)
(tons)
Required (ha)
Cereals
247,622
72,768
2,757,205
275,720
2,270,222
227,022
Milk
44,323
3,877
395,908
34,630
1,342,039
117,389
Meat
74,711
91,498
347,427
694,855
124,780
186
Vegetables
85,001
3,294
323,424
16,171
1,688,227
84,411
Vegetable Oils
5,579
4,127
35,768
35,768
197,755
197,755
Roots
45,665
1,656
192,912
7,716
0
0
Fruit
8,841
680
292,376
6,497
1,066,915
23,709
Eggs
97,297
116
56,302
9
126,365
21
Pulses
9,250
3,884
123,118
10,260
197,755
16,480
Nuts
140
50
6,912
1,382
185,334
37,067
Other
0
0
661,908
0
20,377
0
TOTAL
618,430
181,951
5,193,260
1,083,010
7,402,729
704,040
Classification
Total land area
Area (ha)
1,689,079
Land currently under cultivation
181,951
Total high potential (non-urbanised) arable
land
293,591
Urban footprint
489,832
•Current agricultural employment: 30 000 jobs
•Using available land conventionally: additional 28 000 jobs
•Combining urban agriculture & available land via
•a network of small farms: over 400 000 jobs
•Key drivers: land reform + support +
innovation
•Key resource constraint: water
Energy: Solar Hot Water
• 95% of high/mid income HH – 1,2 m
• 50% of low income HH – 666 000
• Current use: less than 0.1%, reliant on Chinese
imports
• Removes 50%-60% of energy required by HH
• Generates carbon credits
• Industry poised to expand, labour intensive
• Could generate 6700 jobs, large-scale investments
• Subsidy required for low-income HHs
• Incentives/regulations to convert mid/high income
HHs
Energy Efficiency
• Key concept: ‘nega-watt’ – costs less to
use less than to produce more
• Proposed target: 15% of total energy use
• Investment: R7.5 billion pa, 10400 jobs
• Provincial budget: R10 pa
• Sectors: industrial, commercial, transport,
residential
• Key sector leader: public buildings
Energy: CSP
• Key concept: costs of RE coming down, costs of
fossil fuels going up (incl C taxes)
• CSP is best option: medium-tech/cost/local
production/job intensive
• Target: 16% of total energy mix/1413 GW
• Result: ave price of electricity comes down
• R90 billion of new investment
• REFIT pays R2.10, Euros 40 million
• 1000 permanent jobs, 4000 construction jobs /a
• CSP plants in other Provinces, Gauteng as epiccentre
Water & Sanitation
• 98% of SA’s water allocated, crisis ahead
• Gauteng needs to grow by reducing by 15%
• Water gets pumped up to Gauteng, flows down
polluted – other Provinces pay the price
• Massive water losses
• WWTWs overloaded, mismanaged
• No bulk water supply planning beyond 2013
• Split responsibilities
• Gauteng to lead strategic planning initiative in
partnership with Municipalities & Regional Units
Zero Waste
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Key concept: all outputs can be inputs
Current: 5.7 m/t, growing to 6.5 m/t by 2020
Landfill costs double every 4 years
Waste stream: 40% non-recyclable, 15%
organics, 25% recyclables, 19% building rubble
• Waste to landfill can be reduced by 60%
creating 19 400 jobs
• Separation at source, informal jobs, new
industries that access reclaimed materials
Transport
• Key concept: switch from private car use to mass
transit on scale
• 93% of all oil (petrol/diesel) used by private vehicles
– 6.5 m litres/day – imported - outward flows of
cash
• Shift from 5.4l/p/100Km (car) to 1.1 (taxi)/1.4 (bus)
• 15% saving of fuel means 1.1 m people switch to
using the BRT
• 2400 BRT busses, 7200 jobs
• Subsidy: R340 m – less than other costs
What does BAU mean?
• Jobless growth - reliance on mature
industries
• Limited opportunities for innovation – but
innovation is the key to growth
• Resource constraints undermine future
growth costing more to fix later
• Gauteng as a dirty industry/extractive
industry node, dual labour market, locked
into the global economy
GE - IS linkages
• GE mainly about the platform (infrastructure
/support systems)
• IS mainly about economic activities that assume
the platform
• Medium-tech light manufacturing - less energy &
resource intensive √
• Localisation focus – food, transport, basic
consumer goods √
• recycled materials as inputs for feeder industries
– more needed
• IS wont work without the GE
Role of DED
• Facilitator – connecting stakeholders
• Enabler – internal alignment within Govt
• Investor – mainly in innovation, both
technical & capabilities
Gauteng as a ‘green economic region’
repositions it globally, stimulates
innovation, generates new investments,
creates platform of industrial strategy