Transcript Industrial Electricity Prices $US/toe

Asia Pacific Energy
Research Centre
APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook
and New and Renewable Energy
26th Meeting of APEC New and Renewable Energy
Technologies Expert Group Meeting
3-4 April 2006
Yonghun JUNG
Vice President
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Outline
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Regional Grouping
Key Factors in the APERC Outlook
Drivers
Final Energy Demand
Primary Energy Demand
Oil Import Dependency
Electricity Generation
Investment Requirements for the Energy Sector
Environment
Implications
Regional Grouping
Russia
Canada
Northeast Asia
Japan
China
Korea
North
America
Hong Kong,
China Chinese Taipei
Viet Nam
USA
Mexico
Thailand Philippines
Singapore
Southeast Asia
Brunei Darussalam
Malaysia
Papua New
Indonesia
Guinea
Australia
Oceania
Peru
Latin
America
Chile
New
Zealand
Key Factors in the APERC Outlook
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Income growth and change in life style
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Urbanisation
Pursuit for comfort and convenience
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Industrialisation of the developing economies
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Growing number of electric appliances (Residential), escalating number of
passenger vehicle (Transport), and surge in PC use (Commercial)
China’s robust growth for iron and steel, petrochemical, cement
industries and its repercussion to the global economy.
Asian economies to develop automobile industries.
 China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand
Rising energy security concern
Water availability and power demands
Integration of regional energy markets into global market
Technology development
Drivers for the APEC Energy Demand
Growth of Oil Demand (2000-2004)
1600
APEC economies
accounted for 90
percent of the world’s
increment of oil
demand (2000-2004).
1400
1200
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1000
800
600
400
200
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(Source) Blackwell (2005)
Others
Africa
Middle East
CIS/FSU
Russia
China
Non-OECD Europe
-400
OECD Europe
APEC
Oceania
SE Asia
NE Asia
L. America
-200
By 2030, share of urban
population will reach 68
percent of the total from 52
percent in 2003.
 26 million people per year
will move from rural to
urban cities.
Industrialisation
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0
GDP per capita will grow at an
annual rate of 3.5 percent.
Urbanisation
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N. America
Thousand Barrels per Day
Income Growth
Industry value added will grow by
4.8 percent per year, while GDP
will grow by 4.1 percent per year.
Income Growth and Fast Pace of Motorisation
(1980-2030)
Passenger Vehicle Ownership per 1,000
Population
1000
USA
AUS
NZ
JPN
ROK
MAS
CT
CHL
THA
100
CDA
SIN
PRC
INA
RP
PE
10
1
100
1000
10000
100000
Income (USD, 2001 Price)
AUS
MAS
RUS
CHL
NZ
USA
CDA
MEX
THA
PRC
PE
CT
INA
PNG
ROK
SIN
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
JPN
RP
Urbanisation and Residential Energy Demand in the Selected
APEC Economies
Urban and Rural Residential Electricity
Demand Per Person
Urbanisation
2003
N. America
261
2030
354
Share of Urban
Population
2003
80%
2030
87%
L. America
112
160
76%
84%
NEA Asia
146
159
71%
78%
SEA Asia
210
389
44%
63%
Oceania
22
29
76%
77%
China
504
878
39%
61%
Russia
105
94
73%
78%
1,360
2,063
52%
68%
APEC
(Source) United Nations (2003), “Urban and Rural Areas”
6000
Urban
Residential electricity demand (kWh per person)
Urban Population
(Millions)
5000
4000
3000
Urban
Urban
2000
Rural
Rural
1000
Rural
0
China (2003)
Philippines
(1995)
(Source) APERC Internal Database
Thailand (2003)
Share of Sectoral Value Added by Region
(2002 and 2030)
Increasing Share of Services Sector across the Region
100%
North America
Latin America
Northeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Oceania
Russia
China
90%
36.1
36.1
80%
48.8
43.6
43.6
53.5
Service
70%
66.4
60%
76.3
69.1
68.5
68.1
70
71.8
Industry
79.7
50%
Agricult
ure
40%
40
30%
0%
28.9
22.7
28.2
29.8
27.4
30.9
49.6
49.6
43.6
20%
10%
47.2
47.2
26.1
19.5
15.2
1
0.8
2002
2030
4.7
2.7
1.7
1
2002
2030
2002
2030
2002
9.9
2030
3.4
3.2
2002
2030
6.8
6.8
2002
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
16.8
16.8
2030
2002
2030
APEC Sectoral Energy Demand Outlook
(2002-2030)
Commercial sector to grow at the fastest pace followed closely by industry
and transportation sectors.
Absolute Level (Unit:Mtoe)
Annual Growth Rate
2002
2010
2020
2030 2002-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
Industry
1407.1
1841.8
2288.6
2768.6
3.4%
2.2%
1.9%
2.4%
Transport
1090.0
1334.6
1675.3
2074.2
2.6%
2.3%
2.2%
2.3%
Commercial
383.4
471.9
609.0
777.5
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.6%
Residential
871.8
960.8
1071.9
1199.7
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”,
Forthcoming
(Note 1) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
(Note 2) Residential demand includes demand for electricity, gas, oil products, heat and biomass.
2002-2030
APEC Primary Energy Demand Outlook (2002-2030)
Coal to grow at the fastest pace, followed by natural gas.
12000
10000
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Biomass and new
Coal
Hydro
Biomass and New Energy
energy: 0.7% p.a.
Nuclear: 1.8% p.a.
Hydro: 2.0% p.a.
8000
Natural Gas:
Mtoe
2.0% p.a.
6000
Coal: 2.8% p.a.
4000
Oil: 1.7% p.a.
2000
0
2002
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
Oil Import Dependency (2002-2030)
Rising oil import dependency in North America, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and China
North America
Latin America
Northeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Oceania
China
Russia
APEC
2002
2010
2020
2030
55%
-73%
101%
21%
25%
22%
-167%
36%
50%
-35%
100%
37%
42%
39%
-156%
38%
54%
-27%
100%
56%
55%
53%
-139%
44%
60%
-16%
100%
68%
62%
68%
-141%
52%
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
Natural Gas Trade: LNG and PNG
(Source) Circum-Pacific Council (2005)
Electricity Generation in APEC (2002-2030, GWh)
Coal to remain the dominant share in generation
25,000
20,000
Wind, Solar & Others
Geothermal
15,000
TWh
Hydro
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil-Based
Coal Steam
Biomass
10,000
5,000
30
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
20
02
0
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
Electricity Generation by Types
NRE will grow at the fastest pace, while its share remains small.
TWh
Biomass
Coal Steam
Oil-Based
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Hydro
Geothermal
Wind, Solar & Others
Total
2002
92
4,029
556
1,466
1,665
1,326
43
14
9,191
Share
2030
181
8,078
398
1,988
3,149
1,903
118
186
16,000
2002
1.0%
43.8%
6.0%
16.0%
18.1%
14.4%
0.5%
0.1%
100.0%
2030
1.2%
53.1%
1.4%
11.6%
19.2%
11.3%
0.9%
1.3%
100.0%
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
AGR
2002-2030
2.4%
2.5%
-1.2%
1.1%
2.3%
1.3%
3.7%
9.8%
2.0%
Power Sector: Incremental Growth of Installed Capacity by
Region and by Energy Type (2002-2030, GW)
1,978GW
Wind, Solar &
Others
1,900
Installed Capacity Additions (2002-2003, GW)
Geothermal
Hydro
1,400
Natural Gas
887GW
900
Nuclear
Oil-Based
396GW
400
209GW
Coal Steam
215GW
123GW
92GW
54GW
-100
APEC
NA
LA
NEA
SEA
OCE
Biomass
PRC
APEC
NA
LA
NEA
SEA
OCE
PRC
Annual Additions (2002-2030,
70.7
14.1
3.3
7.5
7.7
1.9
31.7
GW)
Regional contribution to the
total additions of installed
100%
20%
5%
11%
11%
3%
45%
capacity in APEC
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
RUS
RUS
4.4
6%
Total Energy Investment Requirements
2003 – 2030, by Sector
Between 5.3 trillion USD to 6.7 trillion USD
Investment by sector, cumulative 2003-2030
High case
Coal production &
transportation,
2.1%
Oil & Gas
production &
processing , 18.0%
Oil & Gas
international trade
, 9.1%
Electricity
generation &
transmission,
59.7%
Oil & Gas domestic
pipelines, 11.1%
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
Prospects: CO2 Emissions, Carbon Intensity and Energy Intensity
K o re a
China
3
4.5
4
Energy Intensity
2
Carbon Intensity
1.5
1
In d ex ( 1990=1)
Index (1990= 1)
2.5
3.5
3
2.5
2
Carbon Intensity
1.5
1
0.5
0.5
0
0
1971
1980
1990
2002
CO2/T PED
2010
TPED/GDP
2020
Energy Intensity
1971
2030
1980
2002
C O 2/ T P ED
CO2
USA
2010
2020
T P ED/G D P
2030
CO 2
Ja pa n
2
1.4
1.8
Carbon
Intensity
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
Energy Intensity
Index (1990= 1)
1.2
1.6
Index (1990=1)
1990
Carbon Intensity
1
0.8
Energy Intensity
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0
0
1971
1980
1990
CO2/TPED
2002
2010
TPED/GDP
2020
CO2
2030
1971
1980
1990
CO2/TPED
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
2002
2010
TPED/GDP
2020
CO2
2030
Options for Reducing CO2 Emissions
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C = (C/E)*(E/GDP)*GDP
Carbon
Intensity
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Energy
Intensity
Energy Intensity
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Government’s Interest
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“constraining carbon
intensity while minimizing
adverse affects on GDP
growth”
Big gap among economies
Industry structure
Energy efficiency improvement
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Technology
Weather
Life Style
Carbon Intensity
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Relatively small gap among
economies
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Continued reliance on fossil fuels
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Oil for transportation
Coal for power generation
Prospects for Fuel Switching in APEC
(2002-2030)
Limited potential for fuel switching.
100%
8%
0%
7%
7%
2%
6%
2%
7%
6%
2%
6%
6%
2%
6%
6%
2%
6%
6%
2%
0%
5%
6%
2%
21%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
80%
Electricity
Biomass and
New Energy
Nuclear
60%
37%
36%
35%
35%
35%
35%
34%
Hydro
40%
Natural Gas
20%
26%
0%
0%
2002
28%
30%
31%
31%
32%
32%
Oil
2005
0%
2010
0%
2015
0%
2020
0%
2025
2030
-20%
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
Coal
Leveraged Costs of Electricity Generation (Japan)
• without externalities, coal is the cheapest option and NRE (except
solar) are competitive to natural gas.
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research
Centre (2005), “Renewable Electricity in
the APEC Region”
NRE Share: Externality Case and BAU Case
Individual sensitivities of APEC member economies to the application of externality
• With the application of externality to
the cost of generation, almost half
of the APEC member economies would
have significant changes in generation
structure.
Implications
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Limited potential for fuel switching
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Need for NRE to offset likely environmental impact
from BAU
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Increasing use of coal and damaging impact on local and global
environment
Potential to increase NRE in electricity generation
Time to reflect environmental cost on price
Call for realistic commitments for the expansion of
NRE from the International initiatives
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APEC bio fuel task force
UNFCCC
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
New Project for 2006/2007 (provisional)
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Transportation energy: demand trend and new
supply options
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APEC Energy Security in the 21st century:
constraints and options
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Urbanization
Biofuel, NGV, Hybrid vehicles, and etc
Resource constraints: conventional and NRE
Input constraints: water, land(siting), public acceptance
Human resources
International Energy Initiatives: fact and myth
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G8, APEC, UNFCCC, ASEAN, UNDP, OECD, AP6 and etc
Origin, operation, impact and future