Transcript Outlook 2013 PowerPoint Presentation

Energy and Climate Outlook: 2013
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Co-Directors:
John Reilly Ron Prinn
http://globalchange.mit.edu/Outlook2013/
Purpose and Scope
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Uses IGSM to look at the world’s current
development path and determine the
associated energy and climate implications.
Incorporates 2020 emissions reduction
targets G20 nations made at the 2009 UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change
(i.e. Copenhagen pledges) and further
specified in Cancun in 2010, showing how
far these pledges take us, and what is at
risk if we fail to push beyond these goals.
Reports results for 3 broad groups:
• Developed countries (USA, Canada,
Europe, Japan, Australia and New
Zealand)
• Other G20 nations (China, India,
Russia, Brazil, Mexico, and several
fast-growing Asian economies)
• The rest of the world
Human System
EmissionsPrediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA)
National and/or Regional Economic Development,
Emissions & Land Use
Hydrology/
water
resou rces
Land use
change
Agricultu re,
forest ry,
bio-energy,
ecosystem
productivi ty
Trace gas
fluxes (CO2,
CH4, N2O)
and poli cy
const raints
CO2, CH4,CO,
N2O, NOx, SOx,
NH3, CFCs,
HFCs, PFCs, SF6,
VOCs, BC, etc.
Human
health
effects
Clim ate/
energy
demand
Sea level
change
Earth System
Atmosphere
Volcanic
forcing
2-Dimensional Dynamical,
Physical & Chemical
Processes
Urban Airshed
Air Pollution Processes
Coupled Ocean,
Atmosphere, and Land
Solar
forcing
Ocean
Land
2- or 3-Dimensional
Dynamical, Biolo gical,
Chemical & I ce Processes
Water & Energy Budgets (CLM)
Biogeochemical Processes
(TEM & NEM)
Exchanges represented in standa rd runs of the s ystem
Exchanges utili zed in ta rgeted studies
Impleme ntation of feedbacks is under de velopme nt
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2013/
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Major Findings
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Copenhagen-Cancun pledges nearly stabilize emissions in developed countries,
but global emissions continue to grow rapidly (total global GHG emissions in
2100 will be almost 95% higher than 2010 emissions).
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Most emissions growth will be concentrated in other G20 nations and the rest of
the world (total GHG emissions from those regions combined grow by almost
150% from 2010 to 2100).
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Emissions cuts by developed countries will have less impact on global emissions
over time because, given Copenhagen-Cancun pledges, by 2100 emissions from
developed countries are only about 13% of global GHG emissions.
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While emissions from fossil fuels are sizeable, other greenhouse gas emissions
are also important (accounting for about 1/3 of total global GHG emissions by
2100).
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Copenhagen-Cancun pledges do not provide enough incentive to create the
transformation needed in the energy system – such as wide-scale adoption of
renewables, carbon capture and storage, or alternative propulsion systems in
vehicles. In particular, by 2050 renewables compose only 5% of the global
electricity mix.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Major Findings (cont.)
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Population growth drives increased electricity production as well as growing
emissions (global electricity production increases by about 85% from 2010 to
2050 and CO2 emissions from electricity grow by 46%. Electricity’s share of total
global CO2 emissions slightly decreases from about 36% in 2010 to 33% in
2050).
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Population and income growth fuel a significant increase in the vehicle fleet and
cause CO2 and other pollutant emissions to increase, especially in developing
regions (the global vehicle fleet doubles by 2050 and among other G20 countries
the fleet grows by about 3.6 times. Emissions from transport grow by about 60%
from 2010 to 2050, and remain about 20% of total global CO2 emissions).
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Global change will accelerate with changes in global and regional temperatures,
precipitation, land use, sea level rise and ocean acidification (temperature is
projected to increase by 3.5-6.5oC by 2100 relative to the 1901-1950 mean, the
global precipitation anomaly increases from 0.02 mm/day in 2010 to a range of
0.25-0.42 mm/day in 2100, global sea level rise due to thermal expansion
increases from 0.1 m in 2010 to a range of 0.4-0.62 m in 2100, and ocean
acidity changes from 8.05 pH in 2010 to about 7.85 pH in 2100).
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Major Updates in the 2013 Outlook
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Population Data: New UN population data (The 2012 Revision replaces The 2010 Revision)
is incorporated into the model. Compared to the previous projections, the global
population is higher by nearly 370 million in 2050 and by 700 million in 2100. The largest
increases are in China, India and Southeast Asia.
Economic Growth: Regional economic growth assumptions reflect the latest International
Monetary Fund Outlook (IMF, 2013) through 2015 and our own long-term projections.
Compared to the 2012 Outlook, the most substantial changes are in China, Europe and
Russia where GDP growth is slightly lower (reductions in annual GDP growth are around
0.1-0.2%).
Natural Gas Availability: Increased estimates of shale gas resources and domestic policies
in China to promote natural gas are represented. Global natural gas consumption is 8%
higher in 2050 than in the 2012 Outlook. Natural gas usage in China more than triples in
2050 compared to the 2012 Outlook.
Renewable Electricity: Policies supporting renewables in the USA and EU are updated. By
2050 renewable electricity in the USA and EU increase by 35% and 11%, respectively
compared to the 2012 Outlook. Global electricity from renewables in 2050 is about 13%
higher than in the 2012 Outlook.
Emission Policies in China and EU: China’s policy is now only applied to CO2 emissions. In
the EU, the emissions trading scheme (ETS) is extended beyond 2020, reducing the cap on
power stations and other fixed installations by 1.74% every year.
Additional Outlook Reporting: Electricity mix; Results for temperature, precipitation and
ocean pH changes at a spatial level; Radiative forcing; Temperature change is reported
relative to the 1901-1950 mean instead of relative to the year 2000.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Global Population
The world’s population is
projected to surge past 9.6
billion before 2050 and
reach 10.8 billion by the
end of the century.
Much of the growth will
happen in developing
regions (i.e. Middle East,
Africa and Latin America).
(UN, 2013)
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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World GDP
Labor productivity will
continue to grow and will
be a source of growth in
GDP.
Global GDP will grow 7.5
times between 2010 and
2100 (real GDP growth=
2.3%).
Per capita income will grow
in all regions, but that
growth will be more rapid
in developing regions –
while income will still
remain well below that of
developed countries.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Global Energy Use
As population and incomes
increase, energy needs and
desires will increase –
almost doubling energy use
by 2050.
Most energy (~80%) will
come from the same
sources currently utilized:
coal, oil and natural gas.
There is an abundance of
fossil fuel resources:
Coal ~180,000 EJ
Oil ~ 35,000 EJ
Gas ~ 29,000 EJ
By 2050 fossil resources
remain plentiful- their
cumulative use to 2050 is:
Coal ~8,000 EJ
Oil ~ 9,000 EJ
Gas ~ 7,000 EJ
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Energy Use by Major Group
•Nuclear and hydropower will increase mostly in developing nations, but
not significantly without mandate or policy changes.
•Energy use overall stabilizes in developed countries, grows substantially in
other G20 nations (to ≈500 EJ), and grows in the rest of the world to
about what is used presently by the developed world.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Energy Intensity by Region
While energy consumption will increase over time, energy use per unit of GDP
generally decreases about 40% from 2010 to 2050. This reflects the
improvement in energy-efficiency and rising energy prices caused by resource
depletion and carbon policies.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Electricity Use
As population grows, electricity
demand increases, growing by
60% by 2050.
By 2050, ~60% global
electricity is from coal and
natural gas.
Electricity emissions increase
about 46% from 2010 to 2050
(rising from 11.2 Gt CO2 to
about 16.4 Gt). Meanwhile, the
share of total CO2 emissions
from electricity falls from 36%
in 2010 to 33% in 2050.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Electricity Use by Major Group
•Natural gas, nuclear, and hydropower mostly increases in developing
countries, particularly China. Renewables increase in USA and Europe.
•Electricity use overall stabilizes in developed countries, but grows
substantially in other G20 nations and the rest of the world.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Vehicle Stock
As population grows,
vehicle use increases –
doubling globally by 2050
and growing by about 3.6
times in other G20 nations
(i.e. China and India)
where population and
incomes grow rapidly.
Transport emissions
increase about 60% from
2010 to 2050 (rising from 6
Gt CO2 to about 9.6 Gt).
However, the share of total
CO2 emissions from
transport is about the same
in 2010 and 2050 (around
20%).
Private Cars and Light Trucks
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Vehicle Stock by Region
Australia & New Zealand
USA
Canada
Japan
EU+
Vehicle use in developed countries will grow slightly.
Significantly more automobiles will be in other G20 nations by 2050.
Vehicle use in the rest of the world is projected to rise moderately to more
than double present-day levels by 2050.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Land Use
To support the increasing
global population, there will be
an increasing need for
cropland.
Although biofuel use has been
associated with rising food
prices, that connection seems
negligible given that only
about 1% of land is used for
biofuel production.
If biofuels take a larger
share of energy demand, the
impacts could be much larger.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Land Use by Major Group
Most land-to-agriculture, and other changes, will occur in the lessdeveloped regions (i.e. Africa and Latin America have significant amounts
of forest and grassland that could be used for crops).
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
With more power plants
and industrial activity,
more cars and trucks on
the road, and more
cropland and livestock,
most sources of GHGs
will grow.
Fossil fuel CO2 emissions
will continue to constitute
about 2/3 of total
emissions
Due mostly to
uncontrolled emissions
from agriculture, energy
production and other
industrial activities.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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GHG Emissions by Major Group
Emissions in developed
countries decrease ≈10% in
the near term (b/c of
pledges), then remain
constant after 2020.
Slow growth in emissions in
other G20 nations, but
unless targets are extended,
emissions increase 130%
contributing ≈55% of
global emissions by
2100.
Due to population growth
and the absence of climate
policy, the rest of the world’s
emissions will nearly triple
by 2100.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Current Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Looking at the GHG concentrations
in our atmosphere, it shows that to
meet the climate goals discussed
broadly amongst nations, global
emissions need to peak very soon.
This chart shows that will not be
the case.
The well-known seasonal cycle,
due largely to strong effects of
northern hemisphere vegetation on
CO2, is smoothed to show the
underlying trend.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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CO2 Concentrations
Future concentrations of CO2 will rise substantially as emissions rise:
approach 750 ppm by 2100 and continue to rise.
Outlook scenario lies between the SRES scenarios A2 and A1B, and
between the RCP scenarios RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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GHG Radiative Forcing
GHG radiative forcing continues to increase: reaches 7.5 W/m2 from
about 3 W/m2 in 2010.
Outlook scenario lies between the SRES scenarios A2 and A1B, and
between the RCP scenarios RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Climate Sensitivity
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Because Climate Sensitivity (CS) is uncertain, we developed 3 climate
scenarios that capture the uncertainty in the Earth’s response to the cooling
from aerosols and warming from greenhouse gases, corresponding to CS=2oC
(low), CS=2.5oC (median), and CS=4.5oC (high).
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For each CS scenario, a five-member ensemble is run with different
representation of natural variability.
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Natural variability is represented by different random sampling of
observed surface wind over the ocean and different initial conditions in the
atmosphere and land components.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Temperature Increase
Using the previous 3 scenarios, by 2100 the mean global temperature is
projected to increase from about 1 degree Celsius in 2010 to 3.5 to 6.5
degrees Celsius by 2100 (relative to the mean temperature in 1900-1950)
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Regional Temperature Change
By 2100 temperature increases in North America, Europe, and Asia exceed
those in Africa, Australia, and South America.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Mean Surface Temperature
Polar regions warming more than the rest of the planet.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Precipitation
Projected increase in global precipitation anomaly from 0.02 mm/day in 2010
to a range of 0.25-0.42 mm/day in 2100.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Precipitation
Geographic patterns vary with some areas (e.g., Indonesia) projected to
become wetter and some areas (e.g., The Caribbean) projected to become
drier.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Sea Level Rise
Projected increase in global sea level rise due to thermal expansion from 0.1m
in 2010 to a range of 0.4-0.62 m in 2100.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Ocean Acidity
As CO2 concentrations increase,
oceans become more acidic
(measured by seawater pH,
lower pH= higher acidity).
Today: pH= 8.05
Oceans are absorbing about 1/3
of the CO2 emitted.
0.1 pH drop since
pre-industrial times.
2100 and Beyond:
drop of 0.2 pH to 7.85pH
strongly affecting marine
organisms.
Corals are likely to cease to
exist with 7.7pH.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Ocean Acidity
By 2100 most locations are projected to reach the levels of 7.7-7.85 pH.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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Preparing for Tomorrow Today
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While the world has made progress, much more effort is needed to avoid
dangerous climate change.
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The Copenhagen-Cancun pledges do not take us very far in the energy
transformation ultimately needed to avoid the risk of dangerous warming.
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Even if policy efforts in developed countries are successful in holding emissions
constant, the emission increases of other nations – growing and industrializing
– will contribute to further increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and
climate change.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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