Transcript Reality 4—No “Silver Bullet”: Broad Portfolio of

Clean Energy Technology, R&D and
Innovation
Dr. Harlan Watson
Senior Climate Negotiator and Special Representative
U.S. Department of State
Climate Change and Sustainable Development:
An international workshop to strengthen research
and understanding
Session 5: “Options for Response Measures”
Magnolia Hall, Indian Habitat Centre
New Delhi, India
April 8, 2006
Overview
 Stabilization of greenhouse gas [GHG] concentrations in the
atmosphere—the “ultimate objective of the UNFCCC
confronts several realities, including:
 Reality 1—Stabilizing GHG Atmospheric Concentrations Is a LongTerm Issue.
 Reality 2—Fossil Fuels Will Remain the Dominant Energy Source
for Decades.
 Reality 3—Can’t Expect Developing Countries to Reduce Energy
Consumption for the Foreseeable Future.
 Reality 4—No “Silver Bullet”: Broad Portfolio of Technologies
Required.
 Reality 5—Challenge is Formidable
• U.S. domestic and international efforts to develop and
deploy cleaner technologies.
Reality 1—Stabilizing GHG Atmospheric
Concentrations is a Long-Term Issue
• Stabilizing
atmospheric
concentrations of
GHGs is a very longterm issue—decades
to a century or more
time scale.
• Stabilization means
that GLOBAL
emissions must peak
in the decades ahead
and then decline
indefinitely thereafter.
Source: Jae Edmonds (Battelle)
Reality 2—Fossil Fuels Will Remain the
Dominant Energy Source for Decades
• Scenarios
 World Energy Demand Projections
 World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Projections
• Plentiful Fossil Fuels Means Problem Will Not Go Away On
Its Own.
World Primary Energy Demand
7 000
Oil
6 000
5 000
Mtoe
IEA World
Energy
Outlook
2004
Reference
Scenario:
Natural gas
4 000
Coal
3 000
• Fossil fuels
account for 2 000
almost
90% of the
1 000
~60%
growth in
0
energy
1970
demand
between
now and
2030.
Other renewables
Nuclear power
Hydro power
1980
1990
2000
Source: Fatih Birol (IEA)
2010
2020
2030
World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
20 000
• Global
emissions
projected
grow 62%
between
2002 &
2030, and
developing
countries’
emissions
overtaking
OECD’s in
the 2020s.
16 000
2
Mt of CO2
IEA World
Energy
Outlook
2004
Reference
Scenario:
12 000
8 000
4 000
0
1970
OECD
1980
1990
2000
Transition economies
Source: Fatih Birol (IEA)
2010
2020
2030
Developing countries
Plentiful Fossil Fuels Means Problem Will
Not Go Away On Its Own
Carbon Reservoirs
Atmosphere 800 GtC (2004)
Biomass
~500 GtC
N. Gas
~2602GtC
Oil
~270 GtC
Soils
~1,500 GtC
Coal
Unconventional Fossil
Fuels: 15,000 to 40,000
Unconventional Liquids and Gases
GtC
Coal
5,000 to 8,000 GtC
14
Sources: Jae Edmonds (Battelle) and Nebojša Nakićenović (IIASA)
Reality 3—Can’t Expect Developing
Countries to Reduce Energy Consumption
for the Foreseeable Future
•
Overriding
priority for
developing
countries, is
poverty reduction
=> Economic
growth =>
Increase in
Energy
Consumption =>
Increase in
Emissions.
Source: Fatih Birol
(IEA)
In 2030, if no major new policies are implemented, there
will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity.
Reality 4—No “Silver Bullet”: Broad
Portfolio of Technologies Required
Global Carbon Emissions
Assumed Advances In
• Fossil Fuels
• Energy intensity
• Nuclear
• Renewables
Atmospheric GHG
Concentrations Stabilized
•
•
The “Gap”
•
•
•
Source: Jae Edmonds (Battelle)
“Gap” Technologies
More of All of the
Above
Biological
Sequestration
Carbon Capture and
Disposal
Hydrogen and
Advanced
Transportation
Biotechnologies
Reality 5—Challenge is Formidable
Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton/year of Mitigation
•
Coal: Carbon capture and storage at 800 1 GW coal power plants.
•
Nuclear: 700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power
•
Geologic Sequestration: 3,500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr (~100 x U.S. CO2
injection rate for EOR).
•
Biofuels: Two billion 60 mpg cars running on biofuels 250 million hectares of
high-yield crops (one sixth of world cropland)
•
Efficency: 2 billion cars at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.
•
Wind: One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power. (Today~50,000
MW).
•
Solar PV: 2000 GWpeak (700 times current capacity) and 2 million hectares of
land.
Source: Rob Socolow (Princeton)
U.S. Climate Change
Policy Components
Address climate change within a broader development agenda—one that
promotes economic growth, reduces poverty, provides energy security,
reduces air pollution, and mitigates greenhouse gas emissions.
• Slowing the Growth of Net
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
Emissions.
 National Goal: Reduce GHG
Intensity by 18% Over 10-Year
Period (2002-2012).
190
No Improvement
(183 tons in 2002)
• Laying the Groundwork for Current
and Future Action: Investments in
Science and Technology.
 Climate Change Science Program (~$2
billion/year)
 Climate Change Technology Program
(~$3 billion/year)
Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent Per
Million Dollars GDP, 2001 Dollars
on dollars GDP, 2001 dollars
180
Current Efforts
(14%)
170
National Goal
(18% decline to
151 tons in 2012)
160
150
140
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
2010
2012
2014
• Promoting International Cooperation.
Near-Term Domestic Actions
•
More than 60 Federal mandatory, incentive-based, and voluntary programs
designed to help reduce emissions by more than 500 million metric tons of
carbon-equivalent from BAU through 2012. Examples of mandatory and
incentive-based programs include:




•
Fuel Economy Standards
Energy Efficiency Standards
Renewable Energy/CHP Tax Incentives
Hybrid/Fuel Cell Vehicle Tax Incentives
Numerous U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) voluntary programs to help consumers and corporations reduce
their GHG emissions, such as:
 ENERGY STAR
 CHP* Partnership
 Climate Leaders
•
 Clean Air Rules
 Biological Sequestration
 Nuclear Plant Relicensing
 Nuclear Power 2010
 Methane Programs
 SmartWay Transport Partnership
 Climate VISION
U.S. Fiscal Year 2007 budget request of about $5 billion for climate change
programs plus energy tax incentives:
 Supports the near-term objective and future actions through major investments in
science and technology.
*Combined Heat and Power
Domestic Clean Air Policy
•
CLEAR SKIES: Reduce Power Plant Pollution (Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen
Oxides, and Mercury) by 70% below 2003 levels by 2018









•
Market-Based Cap and Trade System
US Fleet of Coal-Fired Power Plants — 1,300 Nationwide
Two Phases Provides Regulatory Certainty for Capital Planning Decisions
Promotes Technology Innovation and Cost Reduction
Promotes Clean Coal and Relieves Pressure On Natural Gas Usage
$50+ Billion in Pollution Controls, Efficiency Upgrades
$100+ Billion Health Savings
High Compliance — Low Bureaucracy
Minimal electricity price impact (~ 1,7-3%)
CLEAN DIESEL RULES — Reduce Diesel Engine Pollution by 90%+







Performance Standard — Promotes Innovation
Fuel Sulfur Dioxide Reduced 99+% in 2007
New Engine Nitrogen Oxide Reduced 90%
Large Trucks, Construction and Farm Equipment, Locomotives, Marine Vessels
Commercially Feasible Timelines
Assures Reliability and Affordability of New Engines
Enables Larger U.S. Market in Fuel Efficient Vehicles (up to 30% improved fuel
economy)
Energy Policy Act of 2005
Tax Incentives
Incentives: $14.5 billion
Offsets: $3 billion
Total: $11.5 billion
Climate Change Technology
Program (CCTP)
• ~ $3 Billion/Year
• Goals
 Reduce Emissions from Energy End-Use and
Infrastructure
 Reduce Emissions from Energy Supply
 Capture and Sequester CO2
 Reduce Emissions of Non- CO2 GHGs
 Improve Capabilities to Measure and Monitor
GHG Emissions
 Bolster Basic Science Contributions to Technology
Development.
• CCTP Vision & Framework provides:
 Overall Guidance and Strategic Direction
 Vision, Mission, Goals and Approaches
 Groundwork for Portfolio Prioritization
 “Next Steps” for CCTP
 Oversight & Management Controls
www.climatetechnology.gov
Roadmap for CC Technology Development
CCTP Goals
Goal #1
Energy End-Use
& Infrastructure
Goal #2
Energy Supply
Goal #3
Capture, Storage
& Sequestration
Goal 4
Other Gases
Mid-Term
Near-Term
•
•
•
•
Hybrid & Clean Diesel Vehicles
High-Efficiency Appliances
High-Performance Buildings
High-Efficiency Industrial
Processes & Boilers
• Modernized Grids
• Wind, Hydro, Solar &
Geothermal
• Biomass, Biodiesel, Clean Fuels
• Distributed Electric Generation
• IGCC Coal Plants
• Stationary H2 Fuel Cells
• Enhanced Nuclear Power
•
•
•
•
•
CSLF & Regional Partnerships
Oxy-Fuel Combustion
Enhanced Oil Recovery
Reforestation
Soils Conservation
• Methane to Markets
• Alternatives to High GWP
Gases
• Bioreactor Landfill Technology
Long-Term
•
•
•
•
•
H2 Fuel Cell Vehicles
High-Efficiency Aviation
Net-Zero Buildings
Expanded Solid-State Lighting
Transformational Technologies for
Energy-Intensive Industries
• Advanced Energy Storage &
Controls
• Net-Zero Communities
• Low-Emission Intelligent Transport
Systems
• Low-Emission Industrial Production
• Closed-Cycle Products & Materials
• Low-Loss Energy Transmission &
Distribution
•
•
•
•
Large-Scale Wind Power
Community-Scale Solar
Bio-Fuels, Bio-Refineries
Advanced Bio-Refining of Cellulose
& Biomass
• FutureGen Scale-Up
• Gen IV Nuclear Energy
•
•
•
•
•
•
Widespread Renewable Energy
Bio-Inspired Energy & Fuels
Zero-Emission Fossil Energy
H2 & Electric Economy
Widespread Safe Nuclear Energy
Fusion Power Deployment
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
CO2 as Commodity Chemical
Large Global CO2 Storage
Large-Scale Sequestration
Carbon-Based Products & Materials
Improved CO2 Capture
Safe Geologic Storage
Environmental Guidelines
Bio-Based & Recycled Products
Soils Uptake & Land Use
• Methane Emissions Reduction
• Precision Agriculture
• PFC Substitutes
• Low Emissions of Other GHGs
• Low-Emission Agriculture
• Genetically Designed Forages &
Bacteria
Fiscal Year 2007 Budget Request:
CCTP Portfolio
CCTP Fiscal Year 2007 Budget Request*
Portfolio of RD&D and Deployment: $2.987 Million
H2 + Fuel Cells
Deployment**
($322 M)
($649 M)
Clean Fossil
($321 M)
Other CCTP RD&D
Areas
($25 M)
Sequestration
($137 M)
Renewable Energy
($395 M)
Nuclear Energy
($397 M)
Transmission &
Distribution
($103 M)
Energy Efficiency RD&D
($320 M)
*All CCTP Federal Agencies Fiscal Year 2007 Budget Request
Fusion Energy, ITER
($319 M)
** Deployment is 79% Energy Efficiency
International Partnerships
•
Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF)―22 members:
Focused on CO2 capture & storage technologies.
•
International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE)―17
members: Organizes, coordinates, and leverages hydrogen RD&D
programs.
•
Generation IV International Forum (GIF)―1 members: Devoted to
R&D of next generation of nuclear systems.
•
Methane to Markets Partnership―17 members: Recovery and use
of methane from landfills, mines, and oil & gas systems.
•
ITER―7 members: Project to demonstrate the scientific and
technological feasibility of fusion energy.
•
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP)―17
countries working to enhance the delivery of clean and secure
energy through the use of renewable resources and energy efficiency
programs in the developed and developing world.
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean
Development and Climate
Six Partners in 2003: (Australia, China, India, Japan,
Republic of Korea, and the United States) accounted for:
• 49.0% of World GDP
(Purchasing Power Parities)
•
• 45.4% of World Population
• 46.2% of World Total Primary
Energy Consumption
• 50.2% of World CO2 Emissions
from the Fossil Fuel
Consumption and Flaring
• 64.4% of World Coal Production
• 63.6% of World Coal Consumption
• 45.6% of World Petroleum
Consumption
• 49.3% of World Total Net Electricity
Generation
• 49.4% of World Total Net Electricity
Consumption
Sources: International Energy Agency, CO2 Emissions for Fuel Combustion: 1971-2003. 2005 Edition; and
Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2003
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
Focus
• Voluntary practical measures taken by these six countries in the AsiaPacific region to create new investment opportunities, build local
capacity, and remove barriers to the introduction of clean, more
efficient technologies.
• Help each country meet nationally-designed strategies for improving
energy security, reducing pollution, and addressing the long-term
challenge of climate change.
• Promote the development and deployment of existing and emerging
cleaner, more efficient technologies and practices that will achieve
practical results in areas such as:
 Energy Efficiency
 Clean Coal
 Natural Gas
 Bioenergy
 Methane Capture/Use
 Civilian Nuclear Power
 Geothermal
 Agriculture/Forestry
 Rural/Village Energy
Systems
 Advanced Transportation
 Hydro/Wind/Solar Power
 Building/Home
Construction/Operation
• Seek opportunities to engage the private sector.
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
Organization
Policy and Implementation Committee
(USA, Chair)
Administrative Support Group
(USA)
Cleaner
Fossil
Energy
Task Force
Australia
(Chair)
China
(Co-Chair)
Renewable
Energy
and
Distributed
Generation
Task Force
Korea
(Chair)
Australia
(Co-Chair)
Power
Generation
And
Transmission
Steel
Task Force
Aluminium
Task Force
USA
(Chair)
China
(Co-Chair)
Japan
(Chair)
India
Co-Chair)
Australia
(Chair)
USA
(Co-Chair)
Cement
Task Force
Japan
(Chair)
Coal Mining
Task Force
Buildings
And
Appliances
Task Force
USA
(Chair)
India
(Co-Chair)
Korea
(Chair)
USA
(Co-Chair)
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
Next Steps
• Policy and Implementation Committee and Task Forces will meet April
18-21 in Berkeley, California.
• Task Forces to begin development of Action Plans — “blueprints” for
action — for the private sector and governments.
 Strategic framework for identifying opportunities (technologies and
practices) and implementing priority actions to advance clean development
and climate goals.
 Identification of specific opportunities (technologies and practices) for
cooperation and barriers to these opportunities.
 Establishment of ambitious and realistic results-oriented goals for both
immediate and medium-term specific actions, with measurement systems
to gauge progress toward achieving the goals.
• We are seeking actions that are both broad and deep, including both
technology development and deployment.
• Action Plans to be completed by mid-2006, with implementation to
begin at start of Fiscal Year 2007 (October 1, 2006).
Summary

Stabilization of greenhouse gas [GHG] concentrations in the atmosphere—the
“ultimate objective of the UNFCCC confronts several realities, including:
 Reality 1—Stabilizing GHG Atmospheric Concentrations Is a Long-Term
Issue.
 Reality 2—Fossil Fuels Will Remain the Dominant Energy Source for
Decades.
 Reality 3—Can’t Expect Developing Countries to Reduce Energy
Consumption for the Foreseeable Future.
 Reality 4—No “Silver Bullet”: Broad Portfolio of Technologies Required.
 Reality 5—Challenge is Formidable.
•
U.S. addresses climate change within a broader development agenda—one that
promotes economic growth, reduces poverty, provides energy security, reduces
air pollution, and mitigates greenhouse gas emissions.

Seeks to accelerate near-term deployment of cleaner technologies through a mix
of mandatory, incentive-based, and voluntary programs, and working through
international partnerships, with emphasis on public-private partnerships.

Seeks to develop “breakthrough” cleaner technologies through governmentfunded RD&D programs domestically, and working through international
partnerships, again emphasizing public-private partnerships where feasible.
Room for Optimism: U.S. Experience
with Air Pollution
• Air Pollution
Down 54%
Since 1970:
 Down 10% in
2001-2004
 Economy Up
187%
 Vehicle Miles
Up 171%
 Energy Use
Up 47%
 Population Up
40%