Transcript Presentation Title – Myriad Pro 44

Energy and Climate Outlook: 2012
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Co-Directors:
John Reilly Ron Prinn
http://globalchange.mit.edu/Outlook2012/
Purpose and Scope
•
•
Uses IGSM to look at the world’s current
development path and determine the
associated energy and climate implications.
Incorporates 2020 emissions reduction
targets G20 nations made at the 2009 UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change
(i.e. Copenhagen pledges), showing how
far these pledges take us, and what is at
risk if we fail to push beyond these goals.
Human System
EmissionsPrediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA)
National and/or Regional Economic Development,
Emissions & Land Use
Hydrology/
water
resou rces
Land use
change
Agricultu re,
forest ry,
bio-energy,
ecosystem
productivi ty
Trace gas
fluxes (CO2,
CH4, N2O)
and poli cy
const raints
CO2, CH4,CO,
N2O, NOx, SOx,
NH3, CFCs,
HFCs, PFCs, SF6,
VOCs, BC, etc.
Human
health
effects
Clim ate/
energy
demand
Sea level
change
Earth System
Atmosphere
•
Reports results for 3 broad groups:
• Developed countries (USA, Canada,
Europe, Japan, Australia and New
Zealand)
• Other G20 nations (China, India,
Russia, Brazil, Mexico, and several
fast-growing Asian economies)
• The rest of the world
Volcanic
forcing
2-Dimensional Dynamical,
Physical & Chemical
Processes
Urban Airshed
Air Pollution Processes
Coupled Ocean,
Atmosphere, and Land
Solar
forcing
Ocean
Land
2- or 3-Dimensional
Dynamical, Biolo gical,
Chemical & I ce Processes
Water & Energy Budgets (CLM)
Biogeochemical Processes
(TEM & NEM)
Exchanges represented in standa rd runs of the s ystem
Exchanges utili zed in ta rgeted studies
Impleme ntation of feedbacks is under de velopme nt
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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Major Findings
•
Emissions in the developed countries will nearly stabilize, while global emissions
will continue to grow rapidly.
•
Global change will accelerate with changes in temperature, precipitation and land
use, and the world’s oceans will warm and acidify.
•
Population and income growth will fuel a significant rise in vehicles and increase
emissions, especially in developing regions.
•
While further emissions cuts in developed countries would be useful, such cuts
will have less impact on global emissions over time.
•
A transition to alternative energy will occur in developed countries and China,
but there will not be enough incentive to fully transform the energy system to
avert dangerous levels of climate change.
•
While emissions from fossil fuels are sizeable, other GHG and land-use emissions
are important. If policies to reduce them fail, a major opportunity to limit climate
change may be missed.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
2
Global Population
The world’s population is
projected to surge past 9
billion before 2050 and
reach 10.1 billion by the
end of the century.
Much of the growth will
happen in developing
regions (i.e. Middle East,
Africa and Latin America).
(UN, 2011)
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
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World GDP
Labor productivity will
continue to grow and will
be a source of growth in
GDP.
Global GDP will grow 7.5
times between 2010 and
2100 (real GDP growth=
2.3%).
Per capita income will grow
in all regions, but that
growth will be more rapid
in developing regions –
while income will still
remain well below that of
developed countries.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/
4
Vehicle Stock
As population grows,
vehicle use increases –
especially in other G20
nations (i.e. China and
India) where population
and incomes grow rapidly.
Private Cars and Light Trucks
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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Vehicle Stock by Region
Vehicle use in developed countries will grow slightly.
4 times more automobiles will be on the road in other G20 nations by 2050.
Vehicle use in the rest of the world is projected to rise moderately to more
than double present-day levels by 2050.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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Land Use
To support the increasing
global population, there will be
a concurrent increasing need
for cropland.
Although biofuel use has been
associated with rising food
prices, that connection seems
negligible given that only
about 1% of land is used for
biofuel production.
If biofuels take a larger
share of energy demand, the
impacts could be much larger.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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Land Use by Major Group
Most land-to-agriculture, and other changes, will occur in the lessdeveloped regions (i.e. Africa and Latin America have significant amounts
of forest and grassland that could be used for crops).
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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Global Energy Use
As population and incomes
increase, energy needs and
desires will increase –
doubling energy use by
2050.
Most energy will come from
the same sources currently
utilized: coal, oil and natural
gas.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
9
Energy Use by Major Group
Nuclear and hydropower will increase mostly in developing nations, but
without mandate or policy changes those potential sources will not
significantly increase.
Energy use overall stabilizes in developed countries, grows substantially in
other G20 nations (≈500 EJ), and grows in the rest of the world to about
what is used presently by the developed world.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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Energy Intensity by Region
While energy consumption will increase over time, energy use per unit of GDP
generally decreases about 40% from 2010 to 2050. This reflects the
improvement in energy-efficiency and rising energy prices caused by resource
depletion and carbon policies.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
With more power plants
and industrial activity,
more cars and trucks on
the road, and more
cropland and livestock,
most sources of GHGs
will grow.
Fossil fuel CO2 emissions
will continue to constitute
about 2/3 of total
emissions
Due mostly to
uncontrolled emissions
from agriculture, energy
production and other
industrial activities.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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GHG Emissions by Major Group
Emissions in developed
countries dip ≈10% in the
near term (b/c of pledges),
then remain constant after
2020.
Slow growth in emissions in
other G20 nations, but
unless targets are extended,
emissions increase 95%
contributing ≈50% by
2100.
Due to population growth
and the absence of climate
policy, the rest of the
world’s emissions will
increase by ≈125%.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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Current Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Looking at the GHG concentrations
in our atmosphere, it shows that to
meet the climate goals discussed
broadly amongst nations, global
emissions need to peak very soon.
This chart shows that will not be
the case.
The well-known seasonal cycle,
due largely to strong effects of
northern hemisphere vegetation on
CO2, is smoothed to show the
underlying trend.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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CO2 and GHG Concentrations
Looking at future concentrations of
GHGs, CO2 and other GHGs will rise
substantially as emissions rise.
CO2: From 390 ppm to 816 ppm
CO2-eq: 474 ppm to 1226 ppm.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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Climate Sensitivity
To determine what this means for our climate, we developed 3 climate scenarios
that capture the uncertainty in the Earth’s response to the cooling from aerosols
and warming from greenhouse gases.
White = 50% probability
White + Light Blue = 90% probability
White + Light Blue + Medium Blue = 99% probability
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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Temperature Increase
Using the previous 3 scenarios, the
range of warming becomes:
2050: 1.7°-2.9°C
Median: 2°C
2100: 3.5°-6.7°C
Median: 4.3°
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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Ocean Acidity
As CO2 concentrations increase,
oceans become more acidic
(measured by seawater pH,
lower pH= higher acidity).
Today: pH= 8-8.2
Oceans are absorbing about 1/3
of the CO2 emitted.
0.1 pH drop since
pre-industrial times.
2100: drop of 0.3 pH
Strongly affecting marine
organisms.
Corals are likely to cease to
exist with 7.7pH.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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Preparing for Tomorrow Today
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While the world has made progress, much more effort is needed to avoid
dangerous climate change.
•
The Copenhagen pledges do not take us very far in the energy transformation
ultimately needed to avoid the risk of dangerous warming.
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Even if policy efforts in developed countries are successful in holding emissions
constant, the emission increases of other nations – growing and industrializing
– will contribute to further increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and
climate change.
http://globalchange.mit.edu/ Outlook2012/
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