Transcript 1. Introduction to NPA

Use of Network Patent Analysis
(NPA) for advanced analysis of
patent data
Creating business advantage from patent
insight
 Mike Lloyd, Doris Spielthenner, and
George Mokdsi
 5th June 2012
1. Introduction to NPA
Patents are becoming big business…
But which patents? It is self-evident that
patents have a range of values..
Relative patent value distribution
100
80
Relative patent value
(highest ranked
patent = 100)
Hybrid car patents (58,000
patents)
Alzheimer's treatment patents
(2152 patents)
Smartphone patents (7093
patents)
60
40
20
0
0
50
100
Patent ranking
(1 = highest ranked patent)
150
200
NPA is based on patent citations
Patent
citations
Each patent citation provides two
powerful and valuable insights
1)
2)
Both patent applicants thought that the subject matter they filed their
patents in was important and valuable enough to invest in a patent
filing (whether the later applicant knew about the earlier patent or not)
Either the examiner or applicant for the later patent thought that the earlier
patent was similar enough to disclose a similar feature. In other
words, human intelligence has been used to make connections between
patents.
Most patents have both forward and
backward citations
Reverse or
backward
citations
Earlier patents
considered to be
similar
Subject
patent
Forward
citations
Later patents
considered to be
similar
Citations in turn lead to other citations..
US 3605019
1971
US xxxx
199x
US 4630314
1986
US 4679227
1984
US 5612948
1997
Other
UScitations
5612948
US 5487069
1996
US 5612948
1997
1997
US 4888767
1989
And 79
US
5612948
other
patents..
US
5612948
1997
1997
US 5095535
1992
US 5195576
1993
US 5283780,
1994
Other citations
US 5612948
US 5612948
1997
1997
But the sheer quantity of citation data can
quickly overwhelm ….
NPA uses algorithms to identify the most
connected patents, and then cluster and
rank patents within these networks:
Cluster of
related patents
Image taken from a study of 9,000 smartphone patents
And by doing so, summarising and
learning from the collective
wisdom* encapsulated in the whole
of the citation data in the area you
are looking at
* See Surowiecki, James: “The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many
Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes
Business, Economies, Societies and Nations”, 2004.
Each cluster of patent filings
shows an area of high
popularity
•
•
•
•
•
Blue – client
Red – competitor
Bigger dot = more influential patent/inventor
Thicker line = stronger relationship
Adjacent patents = more similar patents
Results are taken from an NPA analysis of 250,000 engineering patents
Each citation has a direction, which can
provide information about technology
development, or ‘knowledge flow’
between competitors
Does NPA work?
NPA rankings gave better predictions of Alzheimers
drug trial patents than other rankings based on any
of:
- Forward, backward or total citation count
- Number of family members
Drug
Patent
NPA
protecting
ranking
drug
Count
Ranking based on number of (48,000 patents)
Forward
citations
Forward
citations
per year
Backward
citations
Total
citations
INPADOC
family
members
Forward
citations
Forward
citations per
year
Backward
citations
Total
citations
INPADOC
family
members
Bapineuzumab
(Phase III
Alzheimers drug)
US7189819
1
14
1.6
304
318
395
~5100
4942
93
95
308
Solanezumab
(Phase III
Alzheimers drug)
US7195761
14
15
1.9
35
50
52
~4800
3949
~2750
~3170
~4400
Phase II trial
Alzheimer's
drug
US7xxxxxx
~around
200th
18
0
0
18
~30
~37,000
~21,400
~4750
~9830
~12,000
Weighted forward citation arrows have
correlated to successful litigation
Results are taken from an NPA analysis of 72,000 hybrid car patents
2. NPA in practice
Patent portfolio strength can be quantified,
on a cluster by cluster basis
Up and coming patents can determined soon after filing,
allowing analytical prediction of potential technology trends
Filing year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
US2006016187
1, Proximity
detector in
handheld
device, Apple,
NPA ranking =
2
US7764274,
Capacitive
sensing
arrangement,
Apple, NPA
ranking = 4th
equal,
US7812828,
Ellipse fitting
for multi-touch
surfaces, Apple,
NPA ranking =
9
US7479949,
Touch screen
device, method,
and graphical
user interface
for determining
commands by
applying
heuristics,
Apple, NPA
ranking = 146
US2009024403
1, Contact
Tracking and
Identification
Module for
Touch Sensing,
Apple, NPA
ranking = 424
USD628546.
Mobile Phone,
Samsung, NPA
ranking = 624
Leading
smartphone
of that year,
(CNET, other
sources)
Leading NPA
patents in
smartphone
study filed in
that year
Patent thickets can be quantified
Alzheimer's treatments
Litigated smartphone
technologies
ICT project
Largest cluster
2nd largest cluster
3rd largest cluster
Mechanical engineering project
Mining project
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cluster densities: average relationships strength within clusters (patents
< 20 years)
Relative technology turnover can
be quantified
ICT project (n=21,100)
Average age difference between patents
and their backward citations in the
same field (years)
Alzheimer's drugs (n=17,800)
'Patent turnover' - 9 out of 10 backward
citations are younger than this (years)
Smartphone - Mobile data access (n=12,800)
Smartphone - Mobile data transmission
(n=6500)
Smartphone - Touchscreens (n=8900)
Food industry project (n=24,000)
Mechanical engineering project (n=7450)
Mining industry project (n=4100)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Number of years between the publication dates of patents
and their backward citations
NPA in software form
•
•
•
•
•
Client studies currently undertaken using consulting model
AmberScope’ is now in beta testing
– Will provide interactive online view of patent landscape around a
nominated patent (‘houses in your street’)
– Ask me during the seminar for a demonstration
‘AmberMap’ is being developed
– Will provide an interactive online view of the patent landscape in a
technology (‘houses and suburbs in your city’)
– Similar to what has been presented today, but with new capabilities
‘Further products in pipeline
See www.ambercite.com for more information and updates
www.griffithhack.com.au
Thank you for your time… any questions?
AmberScope
(currently proof of concept)
Does NPA work? (1)
Top ranked patent in 2011 NPA smartphone study independently
favoured by leading smartphone patent wars commentator
•
Florian Mueller, 14 January 2012, “fosspatents.blogspot.com” :
“…but it isn't nearly as essential to Apple's litigation strategy as ..: U.S.
Patent No. 7,663,607 on a "multipoint touchscreen". The '607 patent is the
broadest touchscreen-related hardware patent Apple has, and if the
courts interpreted it as broadly as Apple would like them to, ..would be
extremely hard to work around.”
3. Using NPA for advanced
analysis of patent data
NPA is a unique means of
clustering patents…
•
•
•
Much more precise and
reliable than IPC codes
Avoids issues due to
inconsistent choice of
keywords, or keywords
covering broad technical
concepts
Groups inventions
together, not just
technologies
NPA is a unique means of
ranking patents
•
•
•
Uses much more data than a
simple forward citation count,
in particular focusing on the
broader picture
Provides an indication of
underlying patent quality that
is more based on peer review
than self-assessment (such as
litigation measures or the size
of the family)
Compares patents against their
closest competitors, not a
broad field
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
Why NPA? An introduction to Network Patent Analysis
(NPA)
How NPA differs from other analysis techniques
Using NPA for advanced analysis of patent data
Summary and conclusions
Or even just to provide a unique
perspective on individual patents
NPA data can provide a unique perspective
on the likelihood of successful patent
assertion
Cluster of Apple touch-screen
smartphone patents
Too
far?
Lines showing citation linkages between
cluster of Apple patents and asserted
Motorola patent
Motorola touchscreen patent US
6,246,862, asserted against
Apple