Transcript Hannes Toivanen: Identifying hot Brazilian Science and Technology

IDENTIFYING HOT BRAZILIAN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY:
TECH MINING METHODS FOR RELATING SOURCES OF
KNOWLEDGE AND EMERGING RESEARCH AREAS
EU-SPRI CONFERENCE, 12-13 June 2012
Hannes Toivanen
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
Email. [email protected]
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Knowledge dynamics and domestic capabilities
 What role do domestic capabilities play for countries trying to
move towards knowledge economy?
 National systems of innovation framework
 Are countries focussing on strategic areas of science and technology in
research?
 Can we distinguish between or measure the geographic
location of knowledge creation?
 The objective is to clarify methods to identify with enhanced
accuracy emerging trends within fields and countries
 (1) To identify “hot” research fields within Brazilian research;
 (2) Assess to what degree different “hot fields” rely on Brazilian
knowledge bases vs. foreign ones.
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Data
 XML data from Thomsom Reuters: Institute for Scientific Information (ISI)
papers with at least one Brazilian research address from years 2005-2009,
forming SOURCE data set;
 Total number of papers: 152,031. For this paper, only articles and
proceedings were incluced, totalling 127,826.
 In addition: CITING: All papes making citations to SOURCE papers
(283,131 records);
 Unique identifier linking CITED, SOURCE and CITING papers;
 Note: not ISI indexed citation references not included in data;
 Data delivery in May 2010 – Cut-off date for accumulating citations
 Linking CITING papers, we included whole data that was classified as ”hot”.
 To classify research fields, we use ISI Subject categories that are grouped
in OECD Minor Fields
 Reliability issues with the ISI Subject Categories (Leydesdorff & Rafols 2008; Boyack et al
2005);
 Data processed with Vantage Point software
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Measuring “domestic” and “foreign”contributions
 Typically papers are counted as a ”whole”, despite of how many people
or institutions are listed as authors (Total records)
 ->what is the amount of noise in authorships?
 We distuingish between Brazilian and Foreign institutional authorship
(Research country)
 Fractional domestic count (FDC) vs Fractional other count
 Relative shares of instances of research addresses = institutional share of
authorship
 Institutional authorship:
 Each author gives at least one research address;
 Each completely identical research address is indexed as one (e.g. different
department or street of same organization is indexed as 2 separate addresses
 Issues in estimating institutional authorship:
 Multiple authors from one address are counted as only one;
 One author with multiple addresses is counted multiple times;
 Is a proxy – reliability and accuracy subject to validation
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Defining “hot papers” and “hot fields”
 ”Hot papers” have quickly impact on research – number of citations
 Can be self-citation or ”genuine” citation
 Citation as a ”relationship” between papers
 Citations received within narrow time-window
 Times cited / Share of citations (to select ”hot papers”)
 The share of citations received +/- 1 year from publication date from
total citations accumulated by total national output
 E.g. For Brazilian papers for 2005, we identify all papers that have received
citations by papers (only ISI indexed) published in 2004, 2005, and 2006.
 The most 10% cited papers from all articles with at least one author
coming from Brazil
 ”Hot fields” (to classify ”hot papers”)
 Because we include journal articles and conference prodeecings, we
use the ISI Subject Categories, which total over 249 different fields
(2012) (alternative would be journal fields)
 These are consolidated into 39 different OECD Minor Fields
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Defining Brazilian ”Hot papers” 2005, 2007, 2009
 The 10% from all annual articles and conference proceedings
receiving most citations +/-1 year from publication date
 Account about 40% all citations received in this period
 Less than 5% of all papers
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Top-20 Brazilian OECD Minor fields 05-07-09 (total records)
Rank by 2005 totals
Top-20 Brazilian ”Hot Paper” fields 05-09 – Total Records
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Rank by 2005 total record rankings for ”hot paper” total records from here onwards
(number of total records 2009)
 ”Hot fields” are more concentrated
than overall research
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Average share of ”hot papers” 05-07-09. Total records and
fractional count shares.
 Total records over-estimates
”hotness”
 ”Hotness” revealed by fractional
domestic count
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Average share of ”total record” and ”BR FDC” ”hot papers” 05-07-09 from all
citations received by ”hot papers”
 Total records over-estimates
”hotness”
 ”Hotness” revealed by fractional
domestic count
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Results and conclusions
 Fractional domestic count reveals a lot of ”noise” total in record count of
national ”hotness”
 With FDC volume and rank of ”hotness” of papers and fields changes
substantially
 Comparison of total records vs Fractional domestic count ”hotness”
 Physical sciences, astronomy declines from 1st to 5th (papers)
 Chemical sciences advances from 5th to 1st (papers) and from 5th to 2nd
(citations)
 Emerging Brazilian ”hot fields” become visible (papers and citations):
 Materials engineering, Environmental engineering, Other agricultural science
Mathematics, Other engineering and technologies
 Total record count is fine when ”hotness” is measured in global science
 Regional strategic (systems of innovation) ”hotness” requires assessment
of ”localness” in total volume and citations