Transcript Some Examples of Applied ENM

Some Examples of Applied ENM
Jorge Soberon
University of Kansas
(formerly from CONABIO)
I am going to tell the history of
two invasive species in Mexico.
One pre and one post-GBIF
Photograph by: D. Habeck and F. Bennet, University of Florida
I. The Cactus Moth Cactoblastis
cactorum. Pre GBIF
• Devours every single species of prickley-pear that
has been tried.
• In the US and Mexico there are more than 90
species of Platyopuntia, many endangered, vital
componente of arid ecosystems.
• In Mexico, Opuntia is the 10th product of
agricultural importance
First problem: estimation of routes of invasibility
Cactoblastis cactorum
Data points obtained from
the NMNH, USA
Climate surface obtained by
Floramap (12 layers)
Platyopuntia localities
MNHSD, IBUNAM,
ENCB, MOBOT,
NMNH, UAH
Predicted number of species of Platyopuntia
Opuntia lagunae
Fotografías de la planta y el fruto de Jon Rebman
Fotografía de las flores de George Lindsay
http://www.oceanoasis.org/fieldguide/opun-lag-sp.html
Vulnerable areas to Cactoblastis (right climate and right food)
Red isolines:
High similarity to climate in
the original Cactoblastis
cactorum sites.
Blue regions:
Richness of species of Platyopuntia.
Costs and Benefits of the
Analysis
• The C. cactorum analysis took more than one year.
Visits were made to USA. Australia took almost
four years to provide their data. San Diego,
Missouri and Smithsonian queried their own
databases quickly. Arizona was not computerized.
• The results were adopted by Mexico´s Minister of
Agriculture. Base for colaboration with the USA
II. The Saltcedar (Tamarix
ramossisima) in arid ecosystems
• Ecosystem Threat .The monotypic stands of saltcedar
aggressively replace willows, cottonwoods, seep
willow/baccharis and other native riparian vegetation.
• Water. A single large plant can absorb 200 gallons of water a
day. (along the Colorado River it has been estimated that up to
568,000 acre feet of water are lost per year to channel
vegetation, with saltcedar being a major component).
• Animal Impact. It has been found that saltcedar stands
supported only four species of birds per hundred acres, in
comparison to 154 species per hundred acres of native
vegetation.
Presences of Tamarix in original
locations
Niche of Tamarix in the
Western Hemisphere with
observations in the U.S.
Observations of Tamarix
in México
Costs and Benefits of the
Analysis
• This is a post-GBIF analysis. The data was
obtained, literally, in 30 seconds.
• A map was presented to SEMARNAT, the
Ministry of the Environment who started a
program of erradication.
• The results are being refined to higher resolution.
Use of GBIF-mediated data to
monitor compliance with the 2010
Target
Peterson & Soberón
Monitoring the 2010 Target
• In April 2002, at the VI CoP of the CBD, it was
decided to: “achieve by 2010 a significant
reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at
the global, regional and national level” (Decision
VI/26)
• Compliance with the target can be done at various
levels. There are already at least two global or
regional-level indicators: the Red List Indicators
(RLI) and the Living Planet Index (LPI)
Currently...
• LPI. Based on very
low density time
series, normalized and
averaged. Raw data
partially available
• RLI. Based on
interpretations of
“categories of threat”
Non-global focus
• However, the CBD in its decision VIII/15.11
urged parties and other governments to “develop
national and/or regional goals and targets and
related indicators”
• and also emphasized the “need for capacity
building, access to and transfer of technology…in
order to enable [countries] to develop knowledge,
including taxonomic knowledge, (…) to monitor
progress towards the goals and targets”
(DecisionVIII/15.12)
How can GBIF help?
South Africa
Costa Rica
Ecuador
Papua New Guinea
Peru
Nicaragua
Bolivia
Swaziland
Colombia
Madagascar
Panama
Paraguay
Venezuela
Brazil
Orange: Records with coordinates
Green: Records without coordinates
10,000,000
1,000,000
100,000
Tanzania
10,000
• GBIF is in a privileged
position to help
countries to develop
indicators of
compliance of the 2010
target.
• Many developing
countries now have
very significant
amounts of primary
biodiversity data
available via GBIF, as
the graph for the top 15
non-OECD countries
with GBIF data shows .
Use of Primary Biodiversity Data
• GBIF-mediated primary
biodiversity data can be
used to calculate indices
of biodiversity loss,
specifically, indicators
of selected species loss
of area of distribution.
• There is extensive
scientific literature on
methods on how to do
this.
Step I. Areas of distribution
• Presence data is used,
together in Ecological
Niche Modelling to
estimate an area of
distribution.
• The method requires
presence data (served by
GBIF as the largest
provider in the world) and
climatic and topographic
variables available for
most countries in the
world
Step II. By Superimposing reductions in
area due to human activities, loss is
estimated
Original Area of
Distribution in 1940
Remnant Area of
Distribution in 2000
Example: Tamandua mexicana
1940
443,000 km2
1994
291,000 km2
Tamandua illustration: SEMARNAT, Mexico
1976
306,000 km2
2000
246,000 km2
Step III. Indices of biodiversity loss can then be
calculated, for species of national interest
(endangered, commercially-valuable…)
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
Tamandua mexicana
Alouatta paliata
300,000
Ateles geoffroyi
250,000
Guaiacum sanctum
Sciurus aberti
200,000
Peromyscus spicilegus
Sciurus nayaritensis
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
Illustrations from Conabio, Mexico and O. M. Chisano
1980
1990
2000
2010
Conclusions
•
•
•
•
Primary, GBIF-served data can be used to provide
indices of “trends in the abundance and distribution of
selected species” (CBD VIII/15.12).
Indices based on primary data can be calculated at
global, regional or national levels by trained local
experts and can be expressed as time-series.
Training experts in developing countries, as GBIF has
been doing in the last two years, represents a concrete
example of capacity-building in the skills required for
countries to develop indicators of achievement of the
2010 target.
Indices based on primary data, developed for the sets of
species that countries define, and by their own experts,
are an indispensable complement to global, agency
defined indices and fully in accord with CBD guidance
and decisions.