Transcript RickThompson-Heavy Reading

The Evolution of Triple Play:
VOIP, IMS, FMC, WiMAX, IPTV
Triple Play Symposium 2006
Dallas, Boston, Paris
Rick Thompson
Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading
Heavy Reading Research
• Heavy Reading has published numerous research reports, analyzing the
current state of the technology & expected market development for
topics including IPTV, VOIP, IMS, FMC, Carrier Ethernet, IP DSLAMs,
ROADMs, Pseudowires, AdvancedTCA, Next-Gen SONET, etc.
• Heavy Reading next-gen broadband/IPTV research 2005 and 2006:
• IPTV and the Future of Telecom Video Network Architectures (6/05)
• IP DSLAMs: A Heavy Reading Competitive Analysis (8/05)
• MSAPs: A Heavy Reading Competitive Analysis (10/05)
• IP Video and the New Broadband Edge (12/05)
• DSL Gateways: Beyond the Router (2/06)
• Multimedia Whole-Home Networking: Solving the IPTV Distribution
Dilemma (4/06)
• The Future of Internet TV: Emerging “Over-the-Top” Internet Video
Services (planned Summer 2006)
• Heavy Reading conducted interviews with hundreds of technology
suppliers, service providers & investors with a direct interest in telecomrelated topics.
Beyond Triple Play:
Flexibility Is the Killer APP
Entertainment
Productivity/Reference
On-Line Gaming
Security
Communications
Voice (VoIP)
Downloads
Real-Time Play
Multiplayer Hosting
Anti-Virus
Firewall
SPAM
URL Filtering
Personal Video
Streaming Music
Home Monitoring
Email
Streaming Audio
Info Services
Radio
Concerts
Financial, News, Travel
Video
Distributed Printing
Tiered VPN
Fax Services
Instant
Messaging
IP/PC TV
Video on Demand
Pay Per View
Digital Video Recording
Images, Video, Data
Online Collaboration
Info Services
Dynamic Bandwidth
Upgrades
Wireless Backhaul
Sports, Games, Hobbies
Photos, Etc.
Personal Storage
Video Telephony
Incumbent Dilemmas, 2005
• British Telecom
• Retail revenues down 2.5%
• Retail profits down 10%
• Deutsche Telecom
• Domestic revenues down 1.6%
• Broadband/fixed revenues down 3.6%
• France Telecom
• Domestic residential revenues down 1.2%
• Domestic enterprise revenues down 5.4%
• KPN
• Fixed network revenues down 4%
• Business revenues down 9%
Major Themes
• VOIP will be the dominant wireline telephony technology
within five years– situation is less certain on the wireless side
• IMS has won near-universal support among service
providers, and is driving RFPs for NGNs
• WiFi, WiMax and IP could disrupt the mobile telephony cartel,
with major long-term consequences
• Multimegabit broadband networks will spread rapidly in the
next five years, with telcos moving increasingly to FTTx after
2008
• This transition is being driven by the need to provider highquality video content, including HDTV and online gaming
• This in turn is having a major impact on home technologies,
where the market is wide open to innovation
By 2007, VOIP Will Dominate
When do you expect to see more than 50% of voice traffic
carried over IP on your network?
Access
Core
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Percentage of respondents
Already is
Within 1 year
1-2 years
More than 2 years away
Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to VOIP, August
2005. Base: 125 Service Providers
Never
100%
Mainstream VOIP Is a Reality
• Service provider VOIP deployment plans
• VOIP versus Internet voice
Source: The Future of VOIP: A Heavy Reading Service Provider Study, September 2005
There Are Still Technical Barriers
On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is "not an obstacle" and 5 is "a major obstacle,"
please rate the effect of the following factors in preventing or hindering the
deployment of VOIP in your company
Lack of vendor interoperability, vendor lock-in
Lack of agreed QoS across net boundaries
Network security and reliability concerns
Difficulties controlling call quality
911, wiretapping and related issues
No clear or interoperable standards
Initial costs of (subsidizing) CPE
Regulatory barriers
Difficulties making a clear business case
Problems integrated with legacy infastructure
Lack of attractive devices or terminals
Problems controlling or reducing opex
Might cannibalize existing revenues
Lack of user interest, or real demand
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
Average score
3.2
3.4
3.6
IMS Research Findings
• The 2006-2007 time period will be the most important period in FMC,
IMS and NGN technology and service development.
• For service providers, IMS's main appeal is its ability to provide more
applications faster and at lower cost.
• Fixed/mobile convergence is an important secondary motivator.
• Although IMS is seen primarily as a mechanism for deploying
revenue-generating applications, there is little agreement about which
applications should be deployed first, and this lack of consensus may
delay carrier implementations.
• IMS is a complex specification, and there are gaps in the standards,
especially around policy control and service creation.
• There are strong parallels and linkages between IMS and two other
emerging industry standardization movements: service delivery
platforms and AdvancedTCA.
When IMS?
When do you expect to see widespread
deployment of IMS in your company's networks?
By the end of 2006
In 2007-2008
After 2008
Never
Don't know/not sure
0
10
20
30
Percentage of Respondents
Source: Heavy Reading Fall 2005 Survey of Service Provider
Technology Deployment Plans
40
50
Why IMS?
• Layered architecture
• Separates transport, control and applications
• “We can buy best of breed at every layer!”
• Access-agnostic
• Simpler convergence of fixed and mobile networks
• “Services no longer tied to access network technology!”
• IP applications
• With QoS, security, charging
• “A means to fight IP applications leakage to the Internet!”
• New kinds of applications
• Blended together
• “Higher ARPU, lower churn!”
• More applications, much more quickly, at much lower cost
• But controlled, supplied and billed by service provider
• “No need to rely on a few killer apps!”
Apps and Services Drive IMS
What is the most important factor driving IMS
deployment in your company?
Reduce service and applications
development costs
Deliver applications that combine voice,
data and video
Environment to enable quick and easy
launch of new services
Converge fixed and mobile services
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Percentage of Respondents
Source: Heavy Reading 2006 Survey of Service Provider Plans for IMS. Base: 93 Service
Providers
Service Providers Buy The FMC Vision
“Within the next decade, the first link in every network will always be wireless-cellular,
WiFi, WiMax, UWB, and so on-and devices will automatically choose the most appropriate type of wireless link based on location, price, and bandwidth.”
Don't know/Not
sure
Disagree
Agree
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to Fixed-Mobile Convergence,
November 2004. Base: 109 Service Providers
60%
70%
Expect FMC to Transform the Industry
"Within the next decade, fixed-mobile convergence will gradually eliminate the border
between wireline and wireless carriers and service providers. A new breed of
supercarrier that uses any appropriate network technology to serve its customers will
have emerged."
Don't know/Not
sure
Disagree
Agree
0%
20%
40%
60%
Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to Fixed-Mobile Convergence,
November 2004. Base: 109 Service Providers
80%
100%
FMC Is A Higher Priority For
European Service Providers
AsiaPac
Europe
NA
0%
20%
40%
Top Priority
Important
60%
80%
Less Important
100%
Obstacles To FMC Progress
What is the biggest obstacle at present to FMC?
Poor coordination betw een w ired/w ireless service providers
Inability to ensure QoS across netw ork/service boundaries
Legacy infrastructure
Lack of real demand
Lack of attractive handsets
Security and authentication
Badly designed services or interfaces
Don't know / not sure
0
5
10
15
20
25
Percentage of respondents
Source: Heavy Reading Fall 2005 Survey of Service Provider Technology Deployment Plans
30
WiMAX Deployment Plans
• Network operators are overwhelmingly positive about the
impact WiMax will have on networks
• WiMax enthusiasm cuts across all types of carriers and across
all geographic regions
• The next 12 to 18 months will be critical in determining carrier
investment in WiMax
• More than 80 percent of survey respondents expect to see
WiMax deployments by the end of 2007
• Network operators are surprisingly open to deploying WiMax
using unlicensed spectrum, but interest in pre-standard WiMax
products is slight
• Carriers expect to use WiMax to bolster delivery of voice, data,
and even triple-play services, but there’s less interest in WiMax
for wireless backhaul
WiMAX Product Maturity
WiMAX Deployment Plans
Mobile or Fixed WiMAX?
Mobile WiMAX
• The first Mobile WiMax services will launch in Korea in mid
2006, using Samsung equipment; U.S. service launches will
follow, possibly as soon as 2007
• Stealth chipset startups are attempting to leapfrog the market
and go directly to Mobile WiMax; names in the frame include
Beecem, SiWave, Cygnus, Runcom
• Adaptix claims to have already demonstrated system-level
mobility based on scaleable OFDMA
• A market for 802.16e line cards and software will emerge
alongside demand for smart antenna software suites, as major
fabs and OEMs catch on to Mobile WiMax's potential
• Initial services will offer handoff performance suitable for data,
but unsuitable for VOIP services
IPTV: Telecom Meets Entertainment
• TV delivery is moving from HFC-based broadcast to IP-based
multicast/unicast
• Telcos: IPTV, Telco TV, Telco Video (different names, same thing)
• MSOs: SDV initiatives; NGNA (many IPTV-like concepts)
• “Internet TV” is organically evolving in parallel
• Google, Yahoo, Apple, YouTube, MLB.com, major broadcast
channels, etc.
• Technology platforms: Brightcove, Narrowstep, thePlatform, Veoh,
etc.
• Network technologies: DPI, Policy Control, granular QoS
• Video search engines, P2P video file sharing, etc.
• Competitive or complimentary to IPTV?
• Regardless of the model, multimedia content is driving telecom
• Wireline
• Wireless
Technology Shifts Impacting Market
Evolution
• Compression & format: MPEG2  MPEG4; SD  HD
• More channels, lower bit rates
• Access network: 1.5-3 Mbit/s  20-30+ Mbit/s; ATM  Ethernet/IP
• Combination xDSL/FTTx
• Aggregation network: ATM  GigE/10GigE, IP multicast, QOS
• Right amount of aggregation layer intelligence?
• IP edge: High density/capacity, Ethernet-centric, per-service QOS,
unicast/multicast scale, integrated B-RAS, high-availability edge
• Transport network: static/legacy  reconfigurable/multiservice
• Services evolve: Broadcast TV  VOD  PVR/nPVR  integrated &
interactive services
• Mobile & IMS?
• Internet TV?
Phase III: 2008 – 2010
Service Differentiation
Subscriber Scale
IPTV Inflection Points
Phase II: 2006 – 2007
Quality of Experience
Phase I: 2004 - 2005
Technical Viability
Focus on initial
network & service
layer infrastructure.
Modest, controlled
service rollouts.
Basic service
offerings.
Basic Broadcast TV
(IP Multicast)
Initial,
Limited VOD
Focus on service
assurance and QoE
for existing services
and continue adding
new services:
enhanced channel
package, additional
HD content,
additional VOD
content, subscription
VOD, time-shifting.
PVR, nPVR
MPEG-4 HD
Focus on scaling
number of IPTV
subscribers and
introducing
“integrated services.”
Also includes potential
IMS Integration.
Portfolio Expansion:
More HD, VOD, PVR
Multicast to Unicast Service Mix
Integrated Services
IPTV Market Evolution
Integrated Communication,
Information, Entertainment
End-to-End IPTV: A Brief Overview
Content
Owner/Aggregator
Video
Content Acquisition
Residential
Subscriber
TELECOM OPERATOR
National Video HeadEnd Office
Broadband Routing
Network Infrastructure
Broadband Aggregation
Network Infrastructure
Broadband Access
Network Infrastructure
Multimedia
Home Network
End-to-End Policy Control
VoIP
DSLAM
Content Providers
Super Head-End Office
(SHO)
Video Hub Office
(VHO)
IP STB
Video Serving Office
(VSO)
RG
Copper
20th Century Fox
General Electric
News Corp.
Sony
Time Warner
Viacom
Walt Disney
Etc.
Broadcast
Video
Head-End
System
Edge Router/
B-RAS
Core Router
an/.or Edge
Router/
B-RAS
Middleware,
CA/DRM
OLT/ONU
ONT
Edge
Encoders
VOD Server
Complex
Regional/LH
Transport
Live and On
Demand Content
Acquired From
Multiple Satellite
and Terrestrial
Broadcast
Programming
Sources.
PC
Fiber
Gigabit Ethernet
Aggregation
Redundant
National SHOs
Ingest & Distribute
IP-based Video
Content.
Centralized VOD
Libraries May Exist.
Metro Transport
Numerous
Regional VHOs
Receive National
Content from SHOs
and Ingest &
Distribute Regional
Content and IP
VOD.
Local VSOs
Receive &
Distribute Content
from Upstream.
Local Channels
and Distributed
VOD Also Served
From VSO.
OLT
Various Copperand Fiber-based
Access Networks In
Place To Deliver
IPTV to the
Residential
Subscriber.
ONU
SP Controlled
Subscriber Premise:
ONT/NID, Residential
Gateway, IP
STB/DVR, PC, VoIP,
In-Home Distribution
Network
IPTV Bandwidth Requirements
• Video
• IPTV with MPEG2 compression
• Standard Definition
3.5Mbps
• High Definition
19.3Mbps
• IPTV with MPEG4 compression
• Standard Definition
2.0Mbps
• High Definition
8.0Mbps
Centralized Architectures?
Broadband
Access Network
Residential
Gateway
Broadband
Aggregation Network
Broadband
Edge Network
Policy Control
Server
Broadband
Aggregation
Switches/Routers
IP/MPLS Core
Voice
n Homes
B’cast
Video
Broadband
Access
Nodes
VOD
Broadband
Edge Router
HSI
Distributed Architectures?
Broadband
Access Network
Residential
Gateway
Broadband
Aggregation Network
Broadband
Aggregation
Switches/Routers
Broadband
Edge Network
Policy Control
Server
IP/MPLS Core
Voice
B’cast
Video
n Homes
Broadband Access
Nodes
VOD
Broadband
Edge Router
Regional/Local
Video Content
HSI
Network Dimensioning Is Critical
Broadband
Access
Broadband
Aggregation
Residential
Gateway
Broadband
Edge
•Centralized Policy Management
•Video CAC
•Topology Intelligence
•Quality Measurement
Distributed Policy Enforcement
Voice
n Homes
B’cast
Video
GigE/10GigE
Aggregation
Switches/Routers
Access
Nodes
VOD
Edge
Router
HSI
Regional/Local
Video Content
2
1
HSI
IPTV
VoIP
First Mile:
Aggregate
bandwidth
needed for
all services
VOD
B’cast
3
Second Mile:
Concurrent VOD sessions
Non-blocking
Multicast TV channels
VOD
B’cast
4
Third Mile:
Max. concurrent
VoD sessions
Fourth Mile:
Link bandwidth equals
server capacity
VOD controller limits total
amount of streams
QOE Measurement
•Accurate measurement of:
• Overall video service quality
• Usage per channel and viewer
density
• VoD concurrency, channel
changes
• User Quality of Experience
Is essential to:
 Monitor SLAs and troubleshoot issues
 Dimension capacity and tune VoD CAC
“IPTV2”: SureWest
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Improved integration
Emerging standards
Next-Gen STBs
Improved compression
Improved QoS
Improved security
Interactive features
IPTV Work in Progress
• Home networking solutions
• Ability to utilize existing home wiring
• Wireless
• Next-Gen STBs
• SD, HD, PVR, Gateways
• Content
• Interactive applications
Multimedia Home Networking Taxonomy
Remote
Mgmt.
User
Interface
Home
Devices
TR-069: WAN-side
CPE Mgmt
WT-111: Remote Mgmt
of home devices
(TR-069 pass-thru)
TR-064: LAN
side CPE Mgmt
Multimedia CPE UI Technologies: IPTV Browser, EPG, TV/PC
Web Browser, Video Search and Navigation
Network Connected Multimedia CPE: IP STB, DVR, Home Gateway,
Media Bridges, PC/Laptop, Media Server, Gaming Console, Etc.
(Other Critical Technologies: MPEG-4 Decoders, DRM S/W)
Standard/
Technology
IEEE
802.3
HPNAv3
MoCA
Proprietary
HPNAv3
Physical
Medium
Ethernet
Cable
(CAT-5,6)
Coaxial
Cable
(RG6, RG59)
Twisted Pair
Phoneline
Access
Network
WT-135: STB
Object model
HomePlug AV
Proprietary (UPA)
Electrical
Powerline
IEEE
802.11x
Air
Copper and/or Fiber Infrastructure: ADSL2plus, VDSL2, FTTx
(Home Networking WAN Interfaces Integrated into NID and/or ONT)
Thank You!
Q&A