Transcript Citynet Amsterdam Real broadband, real growth

Real broadband, real growth
Dirk van der Woude
Ontwikkelingsbedrijf Gemeente Amsterdam
2
Effect of infrastructure…
 …like that of the British
steam railways…
 1838 Netherlands:
choice between speed
barges or steam…
3
Fiber?
4
And WiFi was important too…
1792
Lille => Paris:
• 15 stations
• 36 characters in 32 minutes
• all records broken, huge success
•And up to 1848 cause for the
French to forgo investing into a
copper telegraphe network
http://www.generation-nt.com/actualites/25551/carte-fibre-optique-paris-couverture/
5
6
Each industrial revolution is underpinned by new
infrastructure
E AGE OF INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
F OIL, THE AUTOMOBILE,
TROCHEMICALS
MASS PRODUCTION
GLOBAL DIGITAL TELE-COMMUNICATIONS AND
ICT SUPPORT NETWORKS
1971
ELECTRICITY, TELEPHONE, HIGHWAYS AND AIRWAYS
1908
CTRICITY AND HEAVY ENGINEERING TRANSCONTINENTAL COMMUNICATIONS, STEAMSHIPS, RAILWAYS AND TELEGRAPH
AYS, COAL AND THE STEAM ENGINE
STRIAL REVOLUTION”
IN ENGLAND
1875
1829
RAILWAYS, PENNY POST
AND TELEGRAPH
CANALS, TURNPIKE ROADS AND MAIL COACHES
1771
Source: Carlota Pérez
7
Old shoes are nice (some are quite old…)
1971
1908
Optical chip throughput: 1,6 Tbs (april 2006)
Fiber speed: 8 Gb/s over 30,000 km (march 2006)
First trans atlantic fiber (1988), First usable fiber optic cable (1970)
First TV Transmission through coax
Berlin Games (1934); First pilot in USA, AT&T (1936)
1875
Coaxial cable patented in Germany
1829
First demonstration of electric telephone
Antonio Santi Giuseppe Meucci (Havana 1849, NewYork 1854)
1771
Semaphore
Ernst Werner von Siemens (1884)
(portable version: Napoleon Bonaparte, 1802)
8
Imagine a world without
having the age of
steam…
 So let us be thankful for
copper and coax!
 however…
9
1999 - 2001: awareness Amsterdam
 Can we be sure copper & cox networks are future proof
– Practical speed
– Parallel use (video)
 Not able to sustain the city’s economic & social needs
– Like continuing strong old and new media & ICT sector
– Like citizens overwhelming web use (2006: > 85%)
 “Living at a dirt road? Don’t buy a Ferrari”
– Services follow infrastructure
– Creative sector & citizens will find out use
– Local government facilitates
 Time for new network?
10
Amsterdam – employment
(total 412.000 working persons)
arts
media and entertainment
creative business services
content
hardware
telecommunication
financial
software
consultancy
Other
11
Amsterdam internet exchange: growth
Worldwide peak speed records:
July ‘05: > 50 Gb/s
October ’05: > 100 Gb/s
May ’06: > 154 Gb/s
June’07: > 282 Gb/s
12
• And of course there is this ‘contention’ thing…
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=93103&page_number=4
VDSL2 – laboratory conditions
13
Shared capacity…
0.7 – 0.8
Mb/s
up
Two phones: 2 x 0,2 Mb
IP TV
SD low = 3 to 4 Mb
SD normal = 4 to 6 Mb
HD low = 8 to 12 Mb
HD = 18 to 20 Mb
So:
• Better live next
to the central
office…
• And of course still
there is this
‘contention’ thing…
• Parallel speed?
Ams-IX per sub:
UPC 40 kbits
Essent: 60 kbits
XS4All: 67 kbits
http://www.ams-ix.net/connected/?expanded=1
xDSL
8 - 14
Mb/s
down,
Leaves for web use: ?
Mb
14
First user test of Amsterdam FttH
• Advertised speed: 100 Mb up, 100 Mb down
• In practice (first days): 88 Mb down
15
Japan: 270,000 new FttH… per month
Japan wireline subs added Q3-'04 through Q2-'06
per type of line in % of total added
Cable
xDSL
FttH
100,0%
90,0%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
2004. 09 2004. 12 2005. 03 2005. 06 2005. 09 2005. 12 2006. 03 2006. 06
19
99
20 .03
00
20 .03
01
20 .03
02
20 .03
03
20 .03
04
20 .03
05
20 .03
06
20 .03
06
20 .06
06
20 .09
06
20 .12
07
20 .03
07
20 .06
07
20 .09
07
20 .12
08
20 .03
08
20 .06
08
20 .09
08
.1
2
thousands
16
Wireline broadband Japan, 1999 - 2006
plus prognosis 2007 - 2008
Factual
Oct 1, 2008
14.000
12.000
Prognosis
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
Cable
xDSL
FttH
17
FttH, elsewhere in Europe just a pick (1)
 France, the battle for & around Paris
– Iliad: 1 million FttH at 1 billion Euro investment (City of Paris
supporting)
– Neuf Cegetel: in 2009 we want 250,000 FttH (50 Mbits) at euro 29,90
– France Telecom, 2007: FttH (100/10 Mbits at euro 44,90) in Paris,
Poitiers, Marseille, Lille, Toulouse & Lyon.
Target: 200,000 subs end 2008
– Noos Numericable, march 2007: “Massive investment towards FttH”
– over 100 broadband projects France with communal participation
– Nov. 2006, French government: 4 million FttH in 2012
 Germany: competitive teleco’s announcing FttH
– f.e. NetCologne: all of Cologne, to be followed by Bonn, Aachen?
(NetCologne = 100% GEW Köln AG = 100% City of Cologne)
– Other projects in Schwerte, Norderstedt, Hamburg, Gelsenkirchen,
Dessau, Magdeburg
18
FttH, elsewhere in Europe just a pick (2)
 Vienna, Zürich (muni energy corp’s):
– FttH in whole city
 Norway: Hafslund energi (53% owned by City of Oslo)
– FttH to half of Norwegian population
 Sweden:
– 200 of 289 communities own a fiber network
 Denmark: energy corps doing FttH
– 2008 – 2009 to 35% of homes (= 50% of population)
 UK:
– Oxfordshire project, part FttH (?), part Fiber/VDSL
– Rest of UK, according to BT & DSG: “12/1 Mb is enough for all & ever.”
“No fiber please, we ‘re British”
– However, Ofcom report march 2007: “Last mile will have to be fiber”
19
Hauts-de-Seine: 700,000 connections
 Western part of Greater Paris
– pop. 1.5 million, 100.000 SME’s, 880.000 jobs, 85% in services
– Per capita highest income of France
 2005, adoption of proposal by the Chairman of the
Conseil General
– FttH to all population and companies
– With a maximum subsidy of euro 70 million
 Said Sarkozy: “Copper is not gonna cut it, we need
fiber”
20
21
FttH in the EU, some examples
Köln
Vienna
Paris, Iliad
NetCologne
200,000 FttH
1 million
FttH
1 million
FttH
Hauts-deSeine
Milan
Stockholm
Amsterdam
FttH
FttB
Dark fiber
40,000 FttH
Up to
70 million
100 million
100 million
6 million of
30 million
(passive
layer)
No
Yes
Yes
services
operator
passive
Market
Public
Support
Subsidy
Municipal
financial
participation
Open
network?
n.a.
250 million
No
n.a.
Aim: yes
75 to 100
million
worth of
support
subsidy
Yes?
n.a.
Problem for EU?
22
Three layers, three types of investors
40,000 homes passed now – more than 450,000 later on
Service providers
100% market
Wholesale
transmission provider
100% market
Passive access
network provider
20% municipal
consumer/
SME
Rent
Rent
23
Three kinds of financial dynamics
40,000 homes passed now – more than 450,000 later on
Services
High OpEx, Low CapEx
Quickly profitable
Transmission
Attractive OpEx, acceptable
CapEx – profitable in few years
Passive network
Real estate like investment
(Highly?) Profitable on long term
24
Translated into investments (millions of euro)
6
6
Market
Public
30
6
Support
Subsidy
12
Passive, market, investors
Passive, market, housing corporations
Passive, City
Passive, market, loan
Active, market
25
Fiber-from-the-Home
40,000 meter boxes, 10% of Amsterdam
Boroughs of
Zeeburg (100%),
Oost (part)
& Osdorp (part)
26
Architecture (1)
 three-layer model
• Passive fibre infrastructure: Point-to-Point
• Unbundled local loop of fiber = maximum competition at upstream
level in value chain
• Largest capacity for future growth
• Active layer: Active Ethernet
• Applications services layer, Service providers are being offered
transparent access:
• with discrete virtual LANs (VLANs) for each service on a per user
basis
• allowing multiple services to be delivered and invoiced to each
home in parallel (i.e. multiple ISP’s, Citywide Intranet, closed circuit
IP-based surveillance, IP-TV, care and medical services etc.)
27
Architecture (2)
 Open network
– Concession of 8 years for operator/investor, after that more operators
possible
– Operator is non discriminatory wholesale seller of capacity
 Why not x-PON
– Avert risk of having to (expensive) re-digging
– Labor costs dominate, will rise with inflation
– Short distances, so savings on cost of material (fiber) are small
– No lock-in of equipment supplier which stifles innovation
– Impossible to have different technology/supplier per subscriber line
www.glasvezelamsterdam.nl
&
www.citynet.nl
Vragen?