Transcript Fiber in the Access, a game changer

ENHANCING LIFE
Fiber in the Access: A Game Changer
Gamal Hegazi
Founding board member,
Chair Technology committee
FTTH Council MENA
Regional Arab ITU 2012
Sharm , June, 2012 ENHANCING
The FTTH Council MENA
 FTTH Council MENA is founded as non-profit organization in since 2011 with the
mission to accelerate the FTTH deployment in Middle East and North Africa.
 Our members are from the main FTTH industry players of the region including
Vendors, National and Private Networks, Governments, Service operators, Utilities.
Since July 2011, 8 Platinum members, 4 Gold and 9 Silvers and 4 ongoing.
ENHANCING LIFE
ENHANCING
Data and Video Explosion
Fix BB users [M]
37% of internet traffic
during primetime
is online video
600
300
2007
2011
2015
680M fixed BB users
by 2015
Video
Devices
Users
x
1.2 billion IP-enabled
devices by 2014
x
~ 70% of internet
traffic by 2014
… DRIVING EXPONENTIAL INCREASE IN NETWORK CONSUMPTION
Sources: Bell Labs analysis
ENHANCING
Global Broadband penetration
Studies showed that the current household Broadband penetration in the
Middle East and Africa region is only 10% vs. the other regions.
ENHANCING LIFE
ENHANCING
Global FTTH/B Market
From June
2010…
ENHANCING LIFE
ENHANCING
Connected Experience… Connected Life…
Connected Home…
Transformation of society is happening
Enterprise Customers
Residential Customers
HD Video
Telepresence
BANDWIDTH
Online storage/backup
Video conferencing
Enterprise video
IT Support
Teleworking
SaaS
Collaboration
VoIP
INTERACTIVITY
Fiber-To-The-Home
Quality of Experience matters
Fiber-To-The-Office
Enterprise rethink “converged”
ENHANCING
Benefits for Business and the Nation at large
Virtual
companies:
on demand
enterprises
EGovernme
nt
Intelligent
Power Grid
Telepresenc
e: High
quality video
comms
Cloud
Computing
Online
Entertainme
nt
EEducation
FTT
FTTH
H
E-Health
ENHANCING
Benefits for the users and consumers
Home
Monitoring
Browsing
Enhanced
VideoCommunicatio
ns
(e.g. care for
elderly people)
IPTV & HD
and 3D VoD
FTTH
Online Gaming
IP Phone
100+
Mbit,
• no delays
• interactive
environments
• virtual communities
ENHANCING LIFE
ENHANCING
Expected continuous bandwidth growth
50 Mb/s / sub (100 Mb/s peak)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20 Mb/s
20
15
10
5
0
2007
HSI
2008
VoIP
OTT
2009
SD
2010
SD VoD
HD
2011
HD VoD
2012
3DTV
2013
Femto
20% CAGR expected bandwidth growth
Sources: FTTH Council; Operators; Alcatel-Lucent
Global peak and average bandwidth have demonstrated their ability to grow
consistently. 100Mbps will eventually become commonplace.
ENHANCING
Various Architectures to reach the customers
PON or P2P
100+ Mb/s
ADSL2+
~10-20 Mb/s
FTTH
VDSL2
~30 Mb/s
VDSL2
~30 Mb/s
VDSL2 bonding
~60 Mb/s
CENTRAL
OFFICE
FTTN
FTTB
or FTTC
Mobile
VDSL2 vectoring
~100 Mb/s
VDSL2 & vectoring
~50-100 Mb/s
ENHANCING
FTTH is a broadband service enabler
+
Real speed
Download of 6.5 Gbyte DVD-film:
10 Mbit/s DSL: 1.44 hours
100 Mbit/s FTTH: 8.6 min
=
INTERACTIVITY
FTTH improves the way
people live and work with symmetry
and speed
and interactivity
Symmetry
Upload of 300 holiday-photos
(700 Mbyte):
1 Mbit/s Upstream:
92
minutes
10 Mbit/s Upstream: 9
minutes
100 Mbit/s Upstream: 56
seconds
ENHANCING
A New connected experience
Home
Management
Communication
Digital
Life
Console
“Cloud”
Self
Service
Console
Service Management Platform
HDM
Home
View
HSM
Enable media sharing
>1000
Enable applications
10G
PON
>
1000
500
Healthcare
Provider
Utilities
Provider
100
Security
Provider
Home
Control
Provider
Service
Platform
GPON
500
100
LTE
VDSL2
24
ADS
L
4
HSPA+
SHDSL.bis
8
Home
Gateway
HSPA
1
GPRS
0,512
2000
2000
2002
UMTS
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
APP 4
ADSL2
APP 3
ADSL2+
10
10
APP 2
24
APP 1
DL Speed [Mbps]
Managed
Multimedia
Internet
Enable bandwidth
Aggregate content in an easy way
Organize all your personal content
Secure access to your personal
content
Share effortlessly
BCM
Web Applications
FTTH
Connected Digital Home
Customer
Service
Console
device discovery
sensor abstraction
service creation
2012
ENHANCING
Decision Criteria Flow Chart
Designated Area
(Available Power)
YES
NO
Available
Copper
Reusable
Copper
Green Field
Network
Overlay
Brown Field
Available
Duct
ALT-2
NO
Alternate
NO
FTTB
FTTH
ALT-1
YES
YES
FTTB/H
FTTC/N
Copper
Maintenance
• New Duct.
• New Civil Work.
• New
Cabinet/Manhole
ENHANCING
FTTH Economics and Business Cases
FTTH CAPEX
(€/subs)
Market Driven
Risk Driven
Policy Driven
Tier 1 cities
Tier 2 & sub-Urban
Rural
7000
Fiber drop
6000
Dark Fiber
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Fiber drop
Dark Fiber
Trenching ducts
Engineering
Home HW
Network HW
0
Pay back period
Fiber drop
Dark Fiber
~4 years
Trenching/ducts
Trenching/ducts
Engineering
Home HW
Network HW
~8 years
OSP engineering
Home HW
Network HW
> 20 years
Note: 30% take rate
The private players alone are not coping with the cost (pay back period?)…
ENHANCING
FTTH ECONOMICS: Public-Private GEOGRAPHICAL
SEGMENTATION
100 %
Market Driven
Services
Fraction
public to private
investment
Policy Driven
Private €
Active
Public €
Passive
0%
Risk Driven
Low
Socio-economic impact of fiber
High
Socio-economic impact
Investor Payback Time
Low/Medium
~5 year
Medium
~10 year
High
~20 year
Public Sector Intervention
Access to infra, RoW,
in-house labeling..
Ducts, sewers,
dark fiber. Active?
Passive, active.
Utility services?
ENHANCING
MENA FTTH Homes Passed indicators
NUMBER OF HOMES PASSED BY FTTH/B, 2010-2011 (000)
Country
The Gulf Countries:
Bahrain
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
2010
2011
Y-o-Y Growth
7.9
65.0
7.7
13.3
29.5
985.7
10.1
80.7
10.1
77.7
115.2
1,186.8
27%
24%
31%
486%
290%
20%
African Countries:
Algeria
Egypt
Morocco
South Africa
Tunisia
3.0
55.3
0.1
19.5
3.2
20.0
57.3
0.1
23.8
5.0
567%
4%
67%
22%
56%
The Levant Countries:
Iran
Iraq
Jordan
Lebanon
Syria
0.0
2.5
2.0
4.7
0.8
0.0
8.0
2.6
5.0
1.2
0%
220%
32%
6%
50%
Source: Pyramid Research, based on operator data
Overall
1,200.2
1,603.7
34%
ENHANCING LIFE
ENHANCING
Opportunities: FTTH Homes subscribed
NUMBER OF HOMES
FTTH/B
COUNTRIES PASSED BY FTTH/B SUBSCRIBERS TAKE RATE
2011
2011 (000)
38%
UAE
1,186.80
445.2
Saudi
31%
115.2
35.4
Arabia
7%
Kuwait
80.7
5.4
8%
Qatar
77.7
6.1
9%
Egypt
57.3
4.9
3%
Algeria
20
0.6
31%
Bahrain
10.1
3.1
16%
Oman
10.1
1.6
8%
Iraq
8
0.6
20%
Tunisia
5
1
10%
Lebanon
5
0.5
23%
Jordan
2.6
0.6
33%
Syria
1.2
0.4
100%
Morocco
0.1
0.1
32% average take rate
Homes
Subscribed
Homes
passed
ENHANCING LIFE
ENHANCING
MENA dynamics
Main
architecture
deployed
70%
FTTB
30%
FTTH
Dwellings
deployed
30%
SDU
70%
MDU
Source: FTTH Council
ENHANCING
FTTH BUSINESS MODELS ALONG THE 3
LAYERS
Vertically
Integrated
Active
Sharing
Full separation
Provider
Retail Service
Provider
Retail Service
Provider
Vertical
Infrastructure
Provider
Retail Service
Provider
Retail Service
Provider
Access to public
infrastructure
Retail Service
Infrastructure
Competition
Provider
Infrastructure
Owner
Retail Service
Vertical Service
Provider
Vertical Service
Provider
Regulation
Vertical Service
Provider
Competition
Vertically
Integrated Operator
Passive
Vertically
Integrated Operator
Active
Vertically
Integrated Operator
Service
Passive
Sharing
Network
Operator
Infrastructure
Owner
Service Competition
Regulated passive
wholesale
Regulated active
wholesale
Regulated passive &
active wholesale
ENHANCING
FTTH a key economic driver
FTTH is a critical driver for the knowledge economy
– Deployment of FTTH creates jobs
– New services create GDP growth, not only from ICT industry
(entertainment industry etc.)
FTTH creates business opportunities & competitiveness
– Operators: increased ARPU (30%!), lower churn-rate, OPEX
savings
– Businesses: new ways of working, reduced travel & office rental
costs, better time management, more innovation, better
competitiveness
– Regions/Municipalities: retain and attract more businesses &
investment, offer cost-efficient services to the community, increase
local competitiveness
ENHANCING
After Jordan 2009, Lebanon 2010, Egypt 2011...
Qatar in December 2012!
www.ftthcouncilmena.org
ENHANCING LIFE
ENHANCING
THANK YOU
“‫شــكــرا‬
www.ftthcouncilmena.org
ENHANCING LIFE
ENHANCING