Transcript to investigate the sensitivity of marine biogeochemical - ghrsst-pp

IMBER within IGBP II
P. Monfray
Prepared for IGST,
14-16 November 2005,
Exeter
OCEAN IGBP II
http://www.imber.info
IPO in Brest, open October 2005
Goal
“to investigate the sensitivity of marine
biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems to global
change, on time scales ranging from years to
decades”
Theme 1. Interactions between
biogeochemical cycles and
marine food webs.
What are the key marine biogeochemical cycles, ecosystem
processes, and their interactions, that will be impacted by
global Change?
• Transformation of organic matter in marine food webs
• Transfers of matter across ocean interfaces
• End-to-end food webs and material flows
Theme 2. Sensitivity to Global
Change
What are the responses of key marine biogeochemical cycles,
ecosystems and their interactions with global change?
• Impacts of climate-induced changes through physical forcing
and variability.
• Effects of increasing anthropogenic CO2 and changing pH on
marine biogeochemical cycles and their interactions.
• Effects of changing supplies of macro- and micronutrients
• Impacts of harvesting on end-to-end food webs and
biogeochemical cycles.
Theme 3. Feedbacks to the
Earth System
What is the role of ocean biogeochemistry and
ecosystems in regulating climate?
• Oceanic storage of anthropogenic CO2
• Ecosystem feedback on ocean physics and climate
Theme 4: Responses of
Society
• What are the relationships between marine
biogeochemical cycles, ecosystems, and the human
system?
IMBER National Activities
• Canada, Chile, Germany, France, India, Japan, New
Zealand, Netherlands, South Africa, UK, USA,
Finland
• China has newly funded five year programme
• Euro Oceans, CarbOcean
• Regional Activities
– ICCED, Southern Ocean
– OECOS, SubArctic Pacific
Planned Activities
• 2005
– Carbon Working Group Meeting, joint IMBER/SOLAS
– End to end food webs Working Group Meeting, joint
IMBER/GLOBEC
– Executive meeting jointly with GLOBEC Executive Committee
• 2006
– Human Dimensions Working Group Meeting
– Continental Margins OSC
• 2007
– Theme 2 Issue 2 (Nutrients) OSC
– Theme 2 Issue 1 (Physical drivers) OSC
– ICCED OSC
• 2008
– IMBER Open Science Conference
GODAE-interest/need for IMBER
• Ocean state:
– Reanalysis starting from availability altimetry data (1992) for climate studies
– Nowcast and forecast analysis for campaign optimization
• Region of interest:
– Basin scale at high resolution both for vertical and horizontal
– Towards coastal areas for cross slope exchanges
• Assimilation issues:
– methods that limit spurious diapycnal fluxes below the mixed layer by advanced
assimilation schemes of physical observations
– integrate gradually biogeochemical observations to constrain jointly physics and
biogeochemistry
• Observations issues:
– Include biogeochemical sensors (O2, pCO2, nutrients, optics, ...) within ARGO and
GLIDER.
• Include biogeochemical modules within GODAE system
– Realtime or forecast of biogeochemical state for evaluation and campaign optimization
– Online coupling for bio-feedbacks on physics
Towards real-time integration of marine
biology in operational oceanography
Some issues rise by the MERCATOR/BIONUTS group
P. Gaspar, J. Stum (CLS, Toulouse)
E. Greiner, L.Nouel, E. Dombrowsky (MERCATOR OCEAN, Toulouse)
A. El Moussaoui, P. Monfray (LEGOS, Toulouse)
O. Aumont, M. Lévy, A.S. Kremeur (LOCEAN, Brest & Paris)
S. Alvain , L.Bopp, C. Moulin, J. Orr (LSCE, Gif)
L. Berline, J.M. Brankart, P. Brasseur, Y. Ourmières, J.Verron (LEGI,
Grenoble)
July 1998
Chlorophyll
using
MERCATOR
2° to 1/3°
resolution
SeaWIFS 98-02
SeaWIFS
Add N regeneration
P3ZD
Add SSH
assimilation
LOBSTER
Add Fe from margins
PISCES
SEEK assimilation with IAU
(Incremental Analysis Update)
July 1998
P3ZD/NATL3
SeaWiFS
w/o assimilation
with SLA and SST ass. + IAU
Berline et al., 2004
Preliminary results using
MERCATOR
re-analysis (MERA-11)
in 2006: realtime demo
prototype with evaluation
by ocean color
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
beyond: global 1/4°, atl
1/15°
Biogeochemistry:
3 challenges for GODAE
• 1- Do assimilation schemes of physical
variables respect constrains for marine
biology ? - Actually NO
• 2- Do marine biogeochemical first guesses
are enough robust ? - NO but quality
increased
• 3- How assimilate information from sea color
to jointly improve physics and biology ? Require to solve first 1 & 2
Towards a “virtuous loop” ?
Biogeochemical
Codes
Biogeochemical
Observations
Offline
Biogeochemistry
Assimilation
Schemes
Physical
(Re)Analysis
Diagnostics
Products: PP, fCO2, O2,
turbidity …
Users: Research,
Carbon/Kyoto, Marine Resources
Towards
nowcast &
hindcat
2nd Int'l GODAE Symposiu m, November 1st-3rd, 2004, St. Petersburg, FL
Report to IMBER-SSC of Breakout Session3 on
Fisheries and Biogeochemistry"
Conte xt
¥ GODAE should move actively towards ecosystem modeli ng and include this goal within its
mandate. GODAE should develop models with li ving marine resources (thus providing products
for users) and form partnerships with others (e.g. IMBER, LOICZ, GLOBEC, GEOHAB) to
develop and apply assimil ation techniques for ecosystem models.
Product Lines relevant for IMBER
¥ Real-time in situ data and remote sensed data to provide warning on extreme conditions for
operational use;
¥ RealΠtim e model forecast to optimi ze fi eld campaign with predictions of extreme temperature
events or eddies/fronts within 1 or 2 weeks;
¥ Reanalysis products for retrospective analysis of carbon cycle or ecosystems dynami cs.
Product Types relevant for IMBER
¥ Data types Π Circulation fields, T, S, turbulence, li ght levels, mi xed-layer depth ;
¥ Global or basin scale, however downscale to the inner shelf coastal appli cations is crucial but
tricky (CODAE system required);
¥ Retrospective reanalysis of data and hindcasting could goes back to 1950, but much better since
1992 by using satelli te altimetry, then 2003 with the new ARGO float system.
Ι/Ι
Cha llenge for IMBER
¥ Development of ecosystem models that used GODAE products:
- offline mode for hindcast over years to decades,
- realtime nesting within GODAE system for nowcast and/or forecast,
- online mode for feedback loop from plankton dynami cs to physics via regu lation of
solar heat penetration;
¥ Development of real-tim e in-situ observing system, as geochemi cal or biological sensors on
ARGO float or ship of opportunity;
¥ Development of advanced assimil ation schemes to constrain in a coherent manner both
dynami cs of physics, biogeochemi stry and biology.
¥ Partnerships with GODAEmust be proactively encouraged by IMBER-SSC on such issues.
Message to GODAE to serve and inte ract wit h the IMBER user community
¥ Assimilation matching - Need to ensure that the data coll ected and specifi c assimil ation
schemes represent t he right aspects of ecosystem dynami cs to make the model most useful for the
users (special attention needed for vertical transport and turbulence).
¥ Specific verification - Each ΤproductΥmust be tested (locally ) against the requirement of its
defined user need. It is not sim ply possible to test the ΤgenericΥmodel but is necessary to know
what ΤtypeΥof output is required by the user a nd in what form. Benchmarks and verifi cation are
im portant t o ensure data quali ty and gain trust of users.
¥ Translation Π GODAE should help to make the products understandable to the users, making
vast amounts of information useful and more easily understandable. Ease of access is also
im portant. Comm unications with new users may be diffi cult.
¥ Dialogue - Some sim ple results of data already in use would require relatively li ttle discussion
for development but in general development of useful products will require many local and
regional bi-lateral and multi-lateral discussions between developers and users. General strategic
support could probably be provided by GODAE but perhaps only at strategic level.
¥ Partnerships with IMBERmust be proactively encouraged by GODAE-SSC on such issues.
A joint workshop on “Biogeochemistry
issues within operational oceanography” ?
• Gain benefit on existing experiences made by teams
associated with GODAE systems*
• Define a joint Vision for future activities
• Schedule in 2006/07 ?
– Joint with IMBER OSC on physical drivers ?
– Next GODAE Symposium ?
* MERCATOR/BIONUTS, NCOF/HADOCC-ERSEM, BLUElink, ECCO, HYCOM, …
IMBER IPO
• Brest, France
• Funded three years by CNRS, IRD,
University of Brittany, Region of Brittany
• Official opening October 25th, 2005
• Executive Officer is Sylvie Roy
• Deputy Executive Officer Sophie
Beauvais
• Administrative Assistant is Elena Fily
IMBER Science Plan
Vision
“to provide a comprehensive understanding of and
accurate predictive capacity for, ocean responses to
accelerating global change and the consequent
effects on the Earth System and human society”
Cross-slope exchange issue