Transcript Slide - AGI conferences

Artilect War or Utopia?
Josh Hall vs. Hugo de Garis
A Debate
Josh’s Position
Josh Hall takes the position in this debate that the rise of artificial
intelligence levels will create a utopia for humanity.
Hugo’s Position
Hugo de Garis takes the opposite position, namely that the rise of
godlike massively intelligent machines will be catastrophic for
humanity, leading to the worst, most passionate war humanity has
ever known, using late 21st century weapons, killing billions of people.
Can Artilects be Made Human Friendly?
If artilects (artificial intellects) can be made human friendly, then
there is nothing to worry about, so no debate.
I think the idea that artilects can be made human friendly, no
matter how smart they become, is NAÏVE, and dangerous.
Why do I feel that?
Here are some arguments against the notion of human friendly AI.
I give each argument a label.
Maybe Josh will try to refute these.
If friendly AI is possible, i.e. that intelligent machines can be
designed to remain friendly to human beings, as their intelligence
increases, then my whole scenario of an Artilect War between the
Cosmists and the Terrans becomes irrelevant. Therefore, the first
step is to show human unfriendly AI is possible.
a) Smarter Machines Can Undo their Human-Imposed Constraints
Argument
b) Evolutionary Engineering (EE) Argument
c) Nano Machine, Cosmic Ray Argument
d) Unpredictable Complexity Argument
e) “Oops Factor” Argument
f) “Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst” Political Argument
21st Century Artilect Enabling Technologies
a) Moore’s Law
b) 1 bit/atom by 2020
c) Femto-Second Switching
d) Reversible Computing
e) Nanotech(nology)
f) Artificial Embryology
g) Evolutionary Engineering
h) (Topological) Quantum Computing
i) Nanotech Impact on Brain Science
j) Artificial Brains
The Artilect : Capacities 1024 Times
Above Human Levels
Human brain bit processing rate = 1016 bit flips per second, i.e.
100 billion neurons (1011) * no. of synapses per neuron (104) *
101 bits per second per synapse
Nanoteched hand object bit processing rate = 1040 bit flips per second,
i.e. no. of atoms (1024) * bit flips per second per atom (1016)
The Species Dominance Debate Starts
As the IQ gap between humans and home robots closes,
everyone will be asking questions such as :-
“Will the robots become as smart as us?”
“Will they become smarter than us?”
“Should humanity place an upper limit on robot and artificial
brain intelligence?”
“Can the rise of artificial intelligence be stopped?”
“If not, then what are the consequences for human survival
if we become the Number 2 species?”
“Should humanity build godlike, massively intelligent artilects?”
Cosmists, Terrans, Cyborgs
As the species dominance debate begins to heat up, humanity will
split into three major philosophical groups.
a) The Cosmists (based on the word Cosmos).
Cosmist ideology is in favor of building artilects.
b) The Terrans (based on the word Terra = the earth).
Terran ideology is opposed to building artilects.
c) The Cyborgs (based on the words “cybernetic organism”
= part machine, part human).
Cyborgs want to become artilects themselves by adding
artilectual components to their own brains.
Arguments of the Cosmists
a) “Big Picture” Argument
b)
Scientific Religion
c)
Building Artilect Gods
d) Human Striving, Cannot be Stopped
e) Economic Momentum
f) Military Momentum
Arguments of the Terrans
a) Preserve the Human Species
b) Fear of Difference
c) Rejection of the Cyborgs
d) Unpredictable Complexity
e) Cosmist Inconsideration
f) “First Strike” Time Window to React against the
Cosmists/Cyborgs
Arguments of the Cyborgs
a) Become Artilect Gods Themselves
b) Avoid the Cosmist/Terran Clash
Terran Rejection of the Cyborgs (details)
a) The “Cyborgian Lock Step” Impossibility Argument
b) Losing Their Young Children
c) Losing Their Adult Children
d) Terran Fear of the Cyborgs/Artilects
e) Cultural Alienation
f) Murphy’s Law
PUBLIC VOTE,
Kurzweil vs. de Garis
In Oct 2006, the BBC made a “Horizon” TV documentary called
“Human Version 2”.
In it, Kurzweil and de Garis accused each other of being naïve.
Kurzweil thought that advanced cyborgs would outclass humans in
any potential Artilect War
de Garis accused Kurzweil of being a political naif, not paying
enough attention to the negative side of human nature.
The BBC asked people to vote, between Kurzweil’s optimistic
scenario and de Garis’s pessimistic Artilect War.
Answer?
1/3 for de Garis,
2/3 for Kurzweil
How the Artilect War Heats Up
a) Nanotech Revolutionizes Neuroscience
b) Neuro-Engineering Weds with Neuro-Science
c) Artificial Brain Technology Creates Massive Industries
d) “Intelligence Theory” is Developed
e) Artilects Get Smarter Every Year
f) “Species Dominance” Debate Rages, Political Parties Form
g) The Debate Turns Violent, Assassination, Sabotage
h) The Terrans Will “First Strike”, Before Its Too Late For Them
i) Cosmists Anticipate this First Strike and are Ready
j) Late 21st Century Weapons, Leads to Gigadeath War
Gigadeath
Number of
People
Killed in
Major Wars
Artilect War, Billions
WW2, 50-100 Million
WW1, 20 Million
Napoleonic Wars, 1 Million
1800
1900
2000
2100
Essential Question
in the
Species Dominance Debate
Do we build gods,
or do we build our
potential exterminators?
References
a) “The Artilect War : Cosmists vs. Terrans : A Bitter Controversy
Concerning Whether Humanity Should Build Godlike Massively
Intelligent Machines”, Hugo de Garis, ETC Publications, 2005
(available on amazon.com)
b) “Multis and Monos : What the Multicultured Can Teach the
Monocultured : Towards the Creation of a Global State”,
Hugo de Garis, ETC Publications, 2009
(available on amazon.com).
c) “The Artilect War”, Hugo de Garis, Proceedings of the 1st
International Conference on Artificial General Intelligence, 2008.