Transcript The Artilect

The ARTILECT WAR
Cosmists vs. Terrans
A Bitter Controversy Concerning Whether Humanity
Should Build Godlike Massively Intelligent Machines
by
Prof. Dr. Hugo de Garis
Professor of Computer Science and Mathematical Physics,
Xiamen University, CHINA.
Published by ETC Books, USA, Feb 2005, and
Tsinghua University Press, CHINA, June 2007
TALK
The Species Dominance Debate :
Should Humanity Build Godlike Massively
Intelligent Machines This Century?”
Abstract :
21st Century technologies, such as nano-technology (molecular scale
engineering), quantum computing, molecular electronics, 3-D
self assembly, one bit per atom memory storage, femto-second
switching, etc, will allow humanity to build godlike, massively
intelligent machines called “Artilects” (artificial intellects) this
century, with intellectual capacities trillions of trillions of times
above the human level. This prospect raises huge ethical issues
that humanity needs to discuss.
Prof de Garis sees humanity splitting into two major, murderously
opposed, philosophical camps in the coming decades, i.e. the
so-called “Cosmists” who will treat Artilect building almost as a
religion (“The most magnificent thing humanity could do”) and
the so-called Terrans (terra = the earth) who will think that
building artilects is too risky, since they would be so superior to
us they may see us indifferently as pests and decide to exterminate us.
Prof de Garis predicts a major war occurring between the
Cosmists and the Terrans late this century, killing billions
of people (“gigadeath”). Given the importance of the debate,
he invites members of the philosophical/political communities to
begin discussing the enormous intellectual and ethical issues
involved.
Biography :
Prof de Garis is full professor of computer science at Xiamen
University, Xiamen, Fujian Province, CHINA. He was formerly an
associate professor of computer science and an adjunct professor
of mathematical physics at Utah State University, in Utah, USA.
He has lived in 7 countries and is married to a Chinese woman,
who is the daughter of a general who was with Mao on the long
march.
Prof de Garis is the author of the book “The Artilect War” which
was published by ETC Books, in the US in February 2005, and
by Tsinghua University Press (TUP) in June 2007.
Contact :
[email protected]
http://www.iss.whu.edu.cn/degaris
Contents of Talk
1) 21st Century (Artilect Enabling) Technologies
2) The Artilect : Capacities 1024 Times above Human Levels
3) The Species Dominance Debate Starts
4) Cosmists, Terrrans, Cyborgs
5) Arguments of the Cosmists
6) Arguments of the Terrans
7) Arguments of the Cyborgs
8) How the Artilect War Heats Up
9) Gigadeath
10) Vote
11) Appeal to Philosophers/Politicians
1) 21st Century (Artilect Enabling) Technologies
a) Moore’s Law
b) 1 bit/atom by 2020
c) Femto-second Switching
d) Reversible Computing
e) Nanotech(nology)
f) Artificial Embryology
g) Evolutionary Engineering
h) (Topological) Quantum Computing
i) Nanotech Impact on Brain Science
j) Artificial Brains
2) The Artilect : Capacities 1024 Times above Human Levels
Artilect = Artificial Intellect
The human brain has a switching capacity of about 1016
bit flips per second.
An Artilect could have 1040 bit flips per second.
So, an Artilect has a trillion trillion times the human brain
capacity.
3) The Species Dominance Debate Starts
As the IQ gap between humans and artilects closes, human
beings will split into 2 (possibly 3) main groups –
a) The Cosmists (favorable to building Artilects)
b) The Terrans (opposed to building Artilects)
c) The Cyborgs (who want to become Artilects themselves)
Should humanity build these godlike massively intelligent
machines?
This is the most important question of the 21st century, dominating
our global politics, comparable with : “Who should own capital?”
of the 19th and 20th centuries.
4) Cosmists, Terrrans, Cyborgs
a) Cosmists (based on the word Cosmos = universe)
Cosmism = ideology in favor of building artilects
b) Terrans (based on the word Terra = the earth)
Terranism = ideology opposed to building artilects
c) Cyborgs (i.e. cybernetic organisms = part machine, part human)
Cyborgism = ideology of humans become artilects themselves
5) Arguments of the Cosmists
a) Big Picture Argument
b) Scientific Religion
c) Building Artilect Gods
d) Human Striving, Cant be Stopped
e) Economic Momentum
f)
Military Momentum
6) Arguments of the Terrans
a) Preserve the Human Species
b) Fear of Difference
c) Rejection of the Cyborgs
d) Unpredictable Complexity
e) Cosmist Inconsideration
f) Time Window, to React against the Cosmists/Cyborgs
7) Arguments of the Cyborgs
a) Become Artilect Gods Ourselves
b) Avoid the Cosmist/Terran Clash
8) How the Artilect War Heats Up
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
h)
i)
j)
Nanotech revolutionizes Neuroscience
Neuro-engineering weds with Neuro-science
Artificial Brain technology creates massive industries
Intelligence Theory is developed
Artilects get smarter every year
Debate begins to rage, political parties formed
Debate turns violent, assassination, sabotage
Terrans strike, before its too late for them
Cosmists anticipate this strike, and are ready
Late 21st century weapons, leads to Gigadeath war
9. Gigadeath
Number of
People
Killed in
Major Wars
Artilect War, Billions
WW2, 50-100 Million
WW1, 20 Million
Napoleonic Wars, 1 Million
1800
1900
2000
2100
QUOTE :
“I’m glad I’m alive now. At least I will die peacefully in
my bed.
However, I truly fear for my grandchildren. They will be
caught up in the Artilect War, and will probably be
destroyed by it”.
Prof. Hugo de Garis, 2000 (Discovery Channel)
10) Vote
I invite the audience to vote on this question :
“Do you feel personally that humanity should build Artilects,
these godlike machines, despite the risk that they might decide,
in a highly advanced form, to wipe out humanity?
Do we build gods, or do we build our potential exterminators?
11) Appeal to Philosophers/Politicians
There is immense scope for philosophical/political debate
on the “Artilect Issue”, particularly for “Applied Ethics”
philosophers, “Political” philosophers, and CCP members.
I invite you to start thinking and writing about these hugely
important questions that will dominate our global politics this
century.
China will become the dominant nation this century.
Therefore it should become the world leader in the “Species
Dominance” debate that will dominate the century that China
will dominate.
I came to China, mainly to help China create that leadership.
BBC
To see a clash of opinions on whether the rise of the Artilect
will be a good or bad thing for humanity, see the BBC TV
“Horizon” program in which Prof de Garis and Dr. Ray Kurzweil
discuss the topic.
Dr. Ray Kurzweil is optimistic
Prof. Hugo de Garis is pessimistic
You can Google
“Human V2.0”
BBC